Pallin' with Palin Update: The Independent Run Looms

Since stating several months ago that she would run Third Party/Independent for President in 2012, around the time of her resignation as Governor of Alaska, I think subsequent events only continue to bear this out. She endorsed a third party choice in NY-23, causing a huge uproar in the Republican Party. Her candidate succeeded in sidelining the Republican, but also created an opening for a narrow victory by the Democrat (first win in that district in over a century).

Her book has been unkind towards her Republican handlers, showing she is completely willing to burn bridges (including those that seem to go nowhere). Her book tour shows no inclination towards any conventional wisdom in her conduct. It does show she's mostly interested in Sarah, with $16 photos, controlled media and SarahPac promotions. Her remarks have shown no sensitivity to pragmatic politics, and often created more media frenzy than they warranted.

As I stated in the original Pallin' with Palin article, she has no desire to run the gauntlet of Republican debates and primaries. She can run from day one her own way by becoming an Independent. She will probably do this by grasping the controls of emerging and/or existing parties, including the growing Tea Party movement, and perhaps the Constitution and Reform parties, It would also be a major coup to secure the Libertarian Party nomination, which Bob Barr has shown can be shanghaied by an outsider.

Depending on circumstances, she could garner anywhere from five to twenty per cent of the vote. She could possibly win a handful of extremely conservative states. I doubt that this in itself would be enough to jeopardize the election of a mainstream candidate, but politics is full of surprises. If unemployment remains or soars, do not expect the reaction of the American people to be rational. The 1930s were a rocky time in World history, with the Depression bringing out extreme virulent forms of fascism and communism. Thank God we had FDR and his confident pragmatism to steer us through. We can only pray that Obama has the same ability to see us through, and that as a nation our political maturity has not deteriorated. If not, then the minor threat of Palin may turn into the biggest disaster this nation has ever faced.