As promised, last week, my bright side look at the disastrous 2014 elections.
What could possibly come out of it that's good?
The first mis-analysis from last week is that Republicans would stop focusing on President Obama and start destroying Hilary Clinton. I appear to be wrong. At least for right now.
I now believe that before moving on, they will attempt to mute Presidential power as much as possible. They want to render the President completely ineffective. They want the President to roll over when they want him to. They want him not to take any actions to improve the problems in this country, and for Republicans to say - "You see, he's not doing ANYTHING to help!" It's a Catch-22, where any choice (or non-choice) the President makes will be savaged.
Once the President is rolled, then they will move on to Hilary Clinton.
Only....the President is not being rolled. He is not playing their game. He is moving on all fronts to improve things in this country. He signed a major treaty with China that will allow us to move forward on reduction of carbon emissions. He has endorsed net neutrality. He is speaking out on the all risk/no reward Keystone Pipeline. He will move ahead on immigration next week.
Everything he is doing is well within his powers as President. But that will not stop the Republicans from apocalyptic reactions, particularly TeaPartyAmerika. They will mostly be threats and bluffs, in their game to eliminate the Presidency as a power center. But it's hard to say where TeaPartyAmerika will stop. They could shut down the government. They could up the ante on their frivolous lawsuits. They might even go completely mad and impeach. Most of this should backfire horribly, but not with their rabid base.
It's hard to predict exactly where the American people will come down on this conflict, but for purposes of this post, let's say they side enough with the President that the Republicans have to back down with some Presidential authority still intact. Maybe after the hissy-fit they will calm down enough that a few things can get passed in a true bipartisan fashion. I know. It's not likely, but this is the optimistic post, remember?
Regardless of this post's optimistic nature, I have to admit the reality that once the Presidential conflict is settled, they will move on to Hilary Clinton, and by the time they are finished, many of you will believe she is Satan incarnate.
Hilary will not roll to the nomination as easily as she thinks, There will be a large progressive voice opposing her, but ultimately have to concede to her stronger political juggernaut. Hilary will try to strike a more populist tone, particularly in the primaries, but shift back right in the general. This will be a horrible mistake, and unless the Republicans nominate someone too extreme (I mean batcrap crazy extreme - a Ted Cruz or Dr. Ben Carson), the Republicans will retake the Presidency. Rand Paul is the only extremist who has the capability of wresting control from the Corporate Republicans, but it hardly matters as TeaPartyAmeika drives the agenda.
But wait, my Democratic/progressive friends say. This is the optimistic scenario? Yes, it is.
The 2016 Republican election is enough to break the Republican party permanently People finally get fed up with wars, attacks on Social Security, lowering wages, tax burdens increased on the working poor and middle class but sharply reduced for the wealthy and the corporations. They see a crumbling infrastructure start to threaten their safety, deficits are again ballooning, healthcare becomes so rotten that people become nostalgic for Obamacare, and college costs and high interest rates are eating away their very souls.
In 2018 the Congress shifts slowly back to the Democrats. The Senate is retaken and the Democrats gain in the House but still fall short. The worst parts of the TeaPartyAmerika agenda are finally slowed.
In 2020 a truly progressive Democrat finally has the strength to take the nomination. They in the Presidency and progressive majorities control the Congress. Because they were so effective throughout the country, including many states, they are in control of the congressional districts redistricting for the next ten years.
The budget is balanced within four years (don't believe me? check out any of the budget proposals that have come form the Progressive Caucus in the last ten years...they all bring the budget into balance more quickly than anything that Paul Ryan ever conceived of). Thanks to President Obama, some executive action checked some of the extremes of climate change, but now the USA can move full throttle into the 21st century. Medicaid For All replaces the destroyed remnants of Obamacare. College becomes virtually free to those whose grades are good. Equal pay becomes a reality. Minimum wages move towards being living wages. Service sector work become jobs that help support families, just like industrial jobs did two generations ago. Military spending is refocused on things that actually protect the United States instead of things that enrich the military-industrial complex. Voting rights are restored. Over a few years, the Supreme Court regains a progressive majority.
Movements by individual states lead to more competitive elections, including improving the viability of third parties and independent candidates. This is followed by constitutional action that leads to a more mulit-party system in the country as a whole. This leads to a more vibrant democracy, with issues being decided by shifting coalitions of legislators, with no one party controlling all the levers.
Unicorns run around the country farting rainbows.
Okay, maybe this is a little too bright, just as last weeks was a little too dark.
The truth lies somewhere in between.
But I can dare to hope, can't I?
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