You know, it's sort of an obligation. Every few months, I've got to speculate on the condition of the upcoming election. Can't help myself. So skip or enjoy. Your call.
Let's start with the easy one. Barring health problems or indictment, Hillary Clinton will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. With all due apologies to the candidate whom I support, Bernie Sanders, I just don't see him winning the nomination. I know that will upset some of my fellow Bernie supporters, but I'm just trying to keep it real.
Bernie is worth voting for, and you never know - he might surprise. The most important thing he is doing is building a coalition of support that will help the Progressive Majority emerge in 2020. He is laying the groundwork for a run by somebody else, who can use the phrases like "democratic socialist" and "progressive solutions" and find a majority of Americans in support. The only thing that can prevent 2020 from being the beginning of a new Progressive Era is if the oligarchy really has strangled democracy, or if the American people decide that is more important to go to war fighting over resources such as oil and water, or it is more important to develop alternative energies and work to preserve the environment so that the planet will be livable for future generations.
Hillary is not the perfect candidate by any means. She is far too militaristic, and too close to Wall Street to really regulate Wall Street. But she is competent and pragmatic, two characteristics essential to being a good President.
Will Biden run? I don't know. I can't tell. If he does, I'm afraid he won't win. Although I think Biden is the most qualified person in the country to become President, I have trouble seeing him as being electable. If he does run, I think it may fracture the vote enough that the final has to be decided at the convention, with Bernie Sanders acting as the power broker.
Now........how about the true circus?
Oy. What a mess.
First, we have the insane division - Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina. The "oh look, they're outsiders!" phenomenon that is careening through the Republican Party like a Miley Cyrus ridden wrecking ball. Who should we put in charge of the Kindergarten class? I know! The kid in the corner eating his own mud pies - that's who! Could one of these incompetent fools actually get the nomination? You know what? I can no longer rule it out. If it's Trump, God help us all. I'm not going to get into all their incredible deficiencies - that is for other posts. Suffice it to say, Trump has faded a tiny bit, but he is still the front-runner. Oy.
In the Right Wing of Attila the Hun Division, we have Ted Cruz and the theocrats - Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindall and Rick Santorum. Of these, only Ted Cruz has a shot. IF the insane division fades in the polls, Ted Cruz is the next most likely to emerge. He is the next most crazy candidate, so it is the next most logical place for the Republicans go. Cruz has played a smart long tern strategy, even funding Fiorina's campaign (to the tune of a half million dollars), and we'll have to see if it pays off.
In the Establishment Division (but still right wing enough that they're going to take away your social security and health care - PAY ATTENTION PEOPLE!!!), they are in utter shambles. Jeb Bush is fading fast, and none of the rest are gaining much traction. This group includes Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie and John Kasich. Jeb Bush had huge campaign funds/Super PAC advantages, but Rubio is starting to show some strength in this regard. So at this moment in time, I have to give Rubio the slight edge. The establishment keeps dangling Jeb Bush in front of the base, but so far the Republican base has refused to bite.
So who in the general election? I still think the establishment Republican is most likely to win. My top most likely race would be Clinton vs. Rubio. Bush could still make it, but it's looking dimmer every day.
My undercard would be Clinton vs. Cruz. This would be an electoral disaster for the Republicans, but sometimes in politics, these forces just have to burn themselves out, like they did with Goldwater in 1964.
Who will be the next President? If it's any candidate from the Insane or Atilla/Theocratic division, Clinton will run away with it. If it's Bush or Rubio, she would still win, but it would be much closer, and the wrong set of circumstances (scandal, health, current events) could let the Republicans win. Their best shot is with John Kasich as he could make gains for them in Ohio and the Midwest, but I'll state out flatly - the Republican base is not bright enough to do that. They've got their anger button on permanent lockdown mode.
Finally, if the Republicans do nominate an establishment candidate, I think there is a fifty-fifty chance that Trump runs as an independent. He's volatile and easily pissed off. And he's one of the most dangerous men ever to run for President (see other posts, or just open your friggin' eyes). He could get, say, 30% of the vote, but that could be enough to springboard him to power. Why not? Historically, it's worked before. Check it out.
If he runs, the 2016 election might not give anyone a majority in the electoral college, and Donald Trump, the new kingmaker, could offer himself up as Vice-Chancellor for whichever party is willing to take him.
Oops. I don't mean Vice Chancellor. I mean Vice President.
My bad.
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