How About a Four Way? Saturday Political Soapbox 118

Jeb Bush and/or Marco Rubio...one of the two (but not both) carrying the banner of the Republican Party/

From right to left, Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Party candidate; Bernie Sanders of the Democratic Socialist (or Green) Party;  and Donald Trump of the New American Fascist Independent Party (NAFIs).


I like history!  I love alternate history and what if scenarios!

So is a genuine four way race possible?  Not bloody likely!  Yes, Trump is crazy enough to do it, but Bernie Sanders is committed to bringing about change through the Democratic Party.  But the course is not completely smooth, as the recent kerfuffle with the DNC and the Clintonista DNC Chairperson Debbie Wasserman Schultz demonstrates.  Fortunately for all, and the grateful acknowledgement of the Clinton campaign weighing in on the side of reason, this was resolved pretty much in Bernie's favor (for more details, please see recent news stories).

But what if it didn't?

What if the Sanders campaign gets blocked and shunned, even with all his support?

What if?

I don't even have to explain Trump running as an independent.  He's very volatile and it wouldn't take much.

It would be our first four way since 1860, when a fractured electorate selected Abraham Lincoln by a thin plurality.

The upside is that there would be clear choices for everyone.  No one could complain that they didn't have somebody to pick from.  The stranglehold that Corporate Republicans and Corporate Democrats have on our politics could at least in theory be broken.

What would happen here?  It's hard to say for sure, but the American populace, considered on a state by state basis, might be very fractured, with it very difficult to gain a 270 vote majority in the Electoral College.

Being the political nerd that I am, I did a state by state analysis and came up with this breakdown:  Trump 190, Clinton 163, Bush 117 and  Sanders 71.  I won't go into a state by state listing, but I do have one.  I just don't want to zone you out, and I realize with a four way split, you could get some unusual results. Suffice to say that I have Trump winning states where, um, how shall I say, angry white resentment is at it's highest (including the old South - yes, that includes you, Georgia), Bush/Rubio holding Florida and the farm Belt, Hillary winning New York and California, plus a smattering of some other solid blue states with significant minority populations, and Bernie taking the most liberal states and the Pacific Northwest (I actually think Bernie has a better than even shot at California, but for scenario purposes, I assigned it to Hilary Clinton).

But with a four way, many interesting splits could happen.  Take Texas, for example.  Democrats are not a majority there, but they do have support in the 40 to 45% range.  Say, to make the math simple, that Hillary wins 35% of the vote, with Bernie only getting five.  Meanwhile Trump and say, Rubio, get 30% each.  So in that scenarios, the right wing extremists get a total of 60% of the vote, but in our "plurality winner takes all of that state's electoral votes" system, Clinton would get all of Texas' 38 electoral votes.  In my scenario above, I assign Texas to Trump - viva la immigrant hatred!

So then we go into the Electoral College election with no one having the Electoral College votes needed to win.  They may try to compromise and one candidate throw their electoral votes to another.  Sanders could back Clinton, agreeing to a Vice Presidential slot or some such, or Trump could combine with Bush/Rubio.  I would not rule out Trump combining with Clinton, particularly if it's Bush, whom Trump can't stand.

If there still is no victor, then the Presidency would be decided by the House of Representatives.  Each state delegation gets only one vote, and they have to select from the top three candidates.  Since most state delegations are Republicans, this favors Bush/Rubio.

The Senate picks the Vice President, and they have to pick from the top two Vice-Presidential candidates, which means they couldn't pick Bush's running mate. The Senate is currently Republican, but I believe that will change in 2016, as the demographics and seats that are up favor the Democrats.  But whether Democrat or Republican, what would they do?  Would they pick Clinton's running mate, or Trump's?  It may depend on who the Presidential candidates chose to run with, and who controls the Senate.  And could they select the Presidential candidate instead of the Vice-Presidential candidate, if the VEEP candidate ceded their place?  Could we have a President Bush and a Vice President Clinton?

Or could a compromise in the Electoral College result in a President Rubio and Vice President Trump? Clinton/Trump?  Trump/Sanders?

What if Sanders wins California and he is in the top two, and not Clinton?

I love what if scenarios.  I'm not sure I would want this to come about, but it's interesting to think about.  At least for me it is.

And then there's this....what if the Republican Convention goes more than one ballot?

Wow.

Let me get back to my spreadsheets!

Yes, I know.  I have a weird idea of fun.