The fear in the Republican establishment is palatable. Will it be the misogynist racist Trump whose policies (such as they are articulated) are borderline fascist? Or will it be Cuban-Canadian Ted Cruz, who brags incessantly about his unwillingness to compromise and who is hated by virtually everyone who has ever had to work with him?
In my opinion, you don't have to be an establishment Republican to fear these two. You just have to be a thinking conservative who loves this country, and wants to actually see it governed effectively. I have many conservative friends who are afraid that they will have to make a choice between these two, that all their other options won't be viable.
Well, I am here to show you light at the end of the tunnel. I do this not to entice you into picking out a candidate that will be easy to beat by Bernie or Hillary. You're already doing a fine enough job of that yourselves. No, I want the Republicans to pick their most capable candidate, someone whom even if I didn't agree with, has the basic competence to run this country.
So here's how:
IOWA:
Cruz narrowly beats Trump in Iowa. This keeps Cruz as a contender, but not a very impressive one when we turn to larger states with a more diverse voting block. It is easy to destroy Cruz with ads, and virtually no superdelegate (the ones selected by the Party and not bound by primaries or caucuses) will vote for him. Like many Iowa victors in recent years, Cruz peaks and fades.
This scenario works if Trump edges Cruz. Cruz just fades even faster.
One of the mainstream Republicans comes in third, in a fashion that exceeds expectations. Right now, Rubio polls in third, but momentum is shifting fast. Whoever it is will be a surprise, something that will create a small buzz in the mainstream media.
NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Trump narrowly beats a mainstream Republican. Cruz finishes fourth or lower. That mainstream runner-up will quickly consolidate mainstream support around him, as the others either quit or stay in the race, but are like a snake who hasn't realized yet that its head has been cut off.
I've examined the summary of polls that Huffpost runs each day. Who has made the most progress since the first of the year? That may tell who does or doesn't have momentum. Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina. Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum have all had sharp percentage drops in support. Ben Carson is the champ in this regards, with his support declining by 194% from what it was, from 5.3% to 1.8%.
Marco Rubio has gone down from 12.5% to 12.4%, less than a 1% decline, but a downward thrust nonetheless.
Other have had modest increases, something less than a 10% surge. Trump has risen from 28.7% to 30.8% and Cruz from 10.8% to 11.3%. Christie, Bush and Rand Paul all have slight increases, but all are still polling less than 10%.
Who has risen the most substantially since the first of the year. John Kasich, the Governor of Ohio, the one that I've been trying to tell you about for MONTHS, as faithful Strait Line political followers would know. He has risen from 9.5% to 12.2%. a rise of 22% in just a three weeks. He is now nipping at the heels of Marco Rubio, and is surpassing him in some of the most recent polls.
SUBSEQUENT PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES:
It's possible, even likely, that Trump and Cruz continue to win some contests. I get the impression, however, that Trump doesn't play well from behind. He will either unexpectedly give up, or say more and more aggressively stupid and offensive things, alienating himself from more and more voters.
With primaries and caucuses being spit three ways, the edge will be to the one who can attract superdelegates. If it's only between Trump and Cruz, I am afraid the vast majority will break for Trump. But they won't have to do that, because there will be a viable mainstream alternative.
CONVENTION:
Will there be a brokered convention? Probably not. Trump, if he cannot clearly win, will likely take his marbles and go home (as to whether he creates a third party or not, I don't know - although my quick impression is that he is too lazy and undisciplined to do the hard work to make that viable). Cruz could be a force, but without the superdelegates and some of the more mainstream states, he will most likely be more of an irritant than a viable nominee.
Therefore, the nominee will come from the mainstream (mainstream for far right Republicans, that is). My opinion is that will be Kasich. He certainly would be your best shot to beat Hillary, which seem to be something you want to do.
THE MOST IMPORTANT THING:
And most importantly, my conservative friends (and I mean that sincerely - many of you are people I like and hold dear), I want you to understand that YOU HAVE A CHOICE! Don't be cowed into thinking that you have to pick between Trump and Cruz. YOU HAVE THE POWER to bring about a different outcome.
Vote for your best interests. Vote for the best interests of the country. Heck, for the best interests of the planet!
Oh. That would be Bernie Sanders.
Anyways, I would settle right now for you just voting for somebody besides Trump or Cruz.
Please. For the sake of us all.
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