The New Hampshire primary is only three days away as I write this.For those who read this before the primary, be amazed at my bold prestidigitation. If you are reading it after the New Hampshire primary, well, I'm too lazy to re-edit to make it look like I knew what I was doing.
Anyways, it's not about exact order. If you want that, here it is - Sanders Clinton for the Democrats; Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Kasich, Bush, Christie, Carson, Fiorina for the Republicans.
But in New Hampshire, it's not always about winning. It's about beating expectations. It's about the difference between what mass media predicts, and what actually happens. It's how Eugene McCarthy propelled his campaign just by finishing 7% behind LBJ. A 42% showing was enough to help propel the President of the United States' decision to withdraw from the race. In 1992, Bill Clinton was able to turn his third place showing into visions of being "The Comeback Kid". And that implausible presumption actually worked.
As we approach New Hampshire, Florida Senator Marco Rubio is trying to convince everyone that his third place finish in Iowa clinches his getting the nomination. And sadly, he may have a point. The two people in front of him are so unsuited to the Presidency, and are so vile and dangerous, that his positioning has to be considered. It may put in the lead to be the Establishment's last great hope.
So here's my rundown of the expectations game:
Bernie Sanders
Poor Bernie. He is poised for a tremendous victory over the greatest political machine of the modern age. This man, who far more than Trump represents a thirst for a new politics in this country, for a break from the domination of wealthy special interests, this 74 year old Jewish Democratic Socialist, is set to deliver the most important message our political establishment has ever heard. And the mainstream media is fully set to dismiss him no matter the outcome. He wins big? So what! It's a neighboring state to Vermont, and the next states are all Hillary country. He wins but by less than current polling? OMG, Hillary is GAINING on him! So what if she was ten points behind? Some polls showed he was up twenty points with a few days to go!
Hillary Clinton
I know this may not make sense to you, but Hillary is in the cat bird's seat. There is nothing that can happen in New Hampshire that will stop the mainstream media's gushing over her. And no, this has nothing to do with media being in the bag for her, or the Clinton News Network. She is the ESTABLISHMENT candidate representing ESTABLISHMENT interests (albeit from a Democratic frame), and they are very slow to recognize the Sanders revolution. They will probably be disbelieving and dismissive all the way up to President Sander's inauguration.
Donald Trump
He'll win, but nobody will pay attention to it. It will probably be by less than current polling. Trump does not wear well. More people will abandon him as people pay closer attention, and the opposition gets a face (or faces) attached to it.
Ted Cruz
And now, I will drift away from my family friendly portion, and say....he is an ass. He is a stand out ass among asses. The most horrifying admission I have to make out of Iowa is to admit that Trump was right - Cruz body-slammed Carson, and tried to clamber over his political carcass in order to squeeze out his victory. Expectations for Cruz in New Hampshire are not too high, but I think he will even fail those. Expect no better than third and possibly a fourth place finish. He will make his stand in South Carolina, and Super Tuesday later in the month will either be his victory or his Waterloo. Personally, I'm pulling for our Canadian Senator to it get his repulsive ass stomped.
Marco! ....... Rubio!
Both a candidate and a delightful pool game! Don't get me wrong. I think he is a lightweight who doesn't have much depth and has trouble showing up to work. But he can be good at speeches (even if he has to crib Obama), and being intellectually weak has never been a disqualifier in the Republican Party (sorry - just keeping it real - look at their history of nominees and contenders). I think there is an excellent chance he finishes second, much closer to Trump than anyone is currently anticipating. This is likely to start an establishment stampede to Rubio. This may be premature, as I'm not sure Rubio will wear well. We will see.
Republican Establishment Fight Club
The first rule of Republican Establishment Fight Club? That if you don't get your s... together soon, there will be NO Republican Establishment Fight Club! Bush, Kasich and Christie are barely hanging in there. Whomever finishes third or fourth from this group MAY get a pass to continue, particularly if the percentages are close. The other two will be pointed to the exits, whether they want to take them or not. I suspect the ticket out will be grabbed by Kasich, but there is a real scramble here. The lesson is that maybe they should have done more to take on Rubio in Iowa. Oh, wait. Jeb Bush did that, spending over 14 million dollars for a sixth place finish and less than 3% of the vote. But Jeb has a plan! Beg people to clap for him, and run a last minute ad featuring Bush, Jr., so we can get a last minute reminder that he is brother to the worst President of the modern age. Well played, Jeb. Well played.
The Are They Still in the Race Club?
Thanks, Cruz! Ben Carson will probably now stay in the race regardless of the results just to defy Cruz's insanely evil tactics. And Carly Fiorina will soon find herself only talking to fax machines. The candidate you know nothing about, former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore, will chug along with only a handful of votes and no media attention whatsoever.
So there it is. And the special thing is, it won't take long for you to see how full of it I am!
On to New Hampshire...and beyond!
Monday Morning Rubio Robo Update
I rarely come back and make a major update to my speculatron posts, but Rubio's Saturday debate performance was just so godawful, it was one of those late breaking events that could really change things up. His constant repeating of the same set speech, even after he was called out on it, played into everyone's worst fears that Rubio didn't have the depth, experience and intellect to handle the job. Kudos to Christie for a masterful job in calling him out.
Who will benefit? Probably Trump. Rubio was closing in on him, and now all that has gone with the debate winds. This will leave Trump fairly secure in first place, as the Republican Establishment Fight Club is now a four-way brawl, with little time for one of them to emerge from the pack. For months now, I keep mentioning Kasich, and I am ignored and thought foolish by my fellow political junkies, but I think there is a real possibility that Kasich will finish second and get the Establishment Golden Ticket.
Cruz should finish somewhere between third and fifth. This will not be an impressive performance, but his real battles will come in South Carolina, and in some of the more conservative states on Super Tuesday. Any Establishment Fight Club member that finishes behind Cruz should consider exiting the race, for the sake of the party, and to save themselves further embarrassment. Yes, I'm talking to you, Jeb Bush.
Sanders is more likely to win by five to ten points, rather than the fifteen to twenty I had hoped for. Get ready for Clinton to be called "The Comeback Lady". In Iowa, her .02% margin of victory was considered a win for the ages, Now watch the Clinton people reverse course and claim victory in New Hampshire NO MATTER HOW MUCH BERNIE WINS BY.
Sigh. Politics. It ain't bean bag.
And, yes, Barack Obama does know what he's doing. THANK GOD!
No comments:
Post a Comment