Falling Into the Con: Saturday Political Soap Box 140

Although not labeled as such, this is a Speculatron.

What will be the outcome of the 2016 elections?

I'm sure everyone is just a'waitin' for T. M. Strait's insightful verdict.

Well, it depends.

I would love to see Hillary Clinton win 45 plus states, 400 plus electoral college votes, and 65% or more of the vote.  It's not impossible but it would require everything to break right.

Why?

Because some of you keep falling for the Con.  As Drumpf re-spins his webs,  some of you will be caught up in his madness.  Some of you may vaguely notice that what he is spinning is completely different than the one he did the day before, but others will see it and say, "You see?  He's coming round.  He's not as crazy as y'all thought he was."

WRONG

It's all a con, from top to bottom.  But I have hope.  Most of you don't get fooled by the same carny twice.  If you get fleeced once by an unscrupulous car dealership, you're not likely to go back again, no matter what they promise you.

BUT

You never know.  I won't be happy until Trump and his racist alt-right buddies are far distant in the rear view mirror.

What does Clinton's margin of victory depend on?

There is always the potential with a Clinton that one of their many sandals (pseudo or otherwise) catches fire.  But it won't matter what Trump or Breitbart say - most thinking people understand how they lie and weave fantasies.  What will matter is if a scandal has enough credibility to be investigated and verified by the mainstream media  (and no, they are not all in the tank for Clinton). If that's the case, it could cut into her margin, depending on how egregious it is.

There is a possibility that a major terrorist incident, domestic or otherwise, could shake up the election. Although it's hard to say what effect that may have.  If Trump is extremist and irrational in his reaction (as he has been in the past), it could actually benefit Hillary more than Drumpf.  Domestic mas shootings, to me, led some to really weird conclusions, as if the were Christopher Walken on SNL going, "I know what this song needs!  More cowbells!" So they answer, "I know what this country with so many gun incidents needs!  More guns!"

Clinton has so far concentrated on a strategy of pursuing alienated Republican voters.  This strategy scares the bejeezus out of me, as I'm afraid if Drumpf behaves for a few days, they'll wander back into the Con Man's fold. I know a number of Republican friends who despise Trump, but also will never vote for Clinton no matter what,so what they will really do is anybody's guess.  Her margin of victory is only going to be based in part on the number of alienated Republicans she wins.  And that a very small part of it.

Her margin of victory is going to be more dependent on rallying millennials, minorities, single women, the working poor and progressives to her side.  And so far, in my opinion, she has done a piss-poor job of it.  Her Vice Presidential selection, Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, a corporate Democrat, seems like a nice enough fellow but he's not a compelling campaigner, and he has little appeal to millennials or progressives.  It's great that she's already forming a transition team, but it is chock-a-block full of corporatists, including ones that support the TPP, fracking and other causes close to corporate hearts.

Since many of these groups are not being addressed, they may not turn out in large enough numbers to make this election a landslide.  And it needs to be, not just for the presidency, but for the Democrats to retake the Senate and make major gains in the House of Representatives.

My prediction is that things close a bit, but Hillary still wins, with 50 to 55% of the vote, and 350 to 375 electoral college votes.  Trump is clearly defeated, but not as completely humiliated as he needs to be.  Libertarians get 3 to 5% of the vote, and the Green party between 1 to 2%.

The Democrats take back control of the Senate, but not by the numbers they need to stop filibusters.  I see a split in the neighborhood of 53 to 47.  Progressives will be stronger, but not strong enough to stop Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York from becoming the Senate Majority Leader.

The Democrats will not retake the Senate, but will gain about 20 seats, leaving the Republicans in control roughly 227 to 208.  In the House, close don't mean squat, so Ryan and his minions will run roughshod over the whole process.  Between that and the Senate veto, we'll have another four years where little gets done.

And so it goes.

Well, at least the Trump forces will be vanquished.  Surely people will stop falling for the Con,

This I pray.