Saturday, April 6, 2019

It's Time to Give Trump Credit: Saturday Political Soap Box 208


I don't really like to buy into the notion that the media is biased.  Yes, there are certain elements that have a point of view, particularly the prime time shows with partisan hosts, but I like to think that when news is taken as a whole, and you are willing to seek out multiple sources, you still get a fair view of what's going on in the country.

I feel that way until I decide to try to find the current month's jobs report.  Generally speaking, it's either not in the news sources I look at, or it's buried deep in the newspaper or content browser.  I don't know if it's liberal bias, or whether the numbers are so similar from month to month it's no longer considered significant news.

I consider the long recovery we have been on as Obama's recovery.  More than any other administration, his recovery was set on real policy and steady growth.  It was not built on gimmicks or bubbles.  That is why it has lasted so long, as long as any economic recovery we've ever had.

But at some point, you have to recognize that the recovery is occurring under a new administration, and you have to give them credit for its continuation.  And I am now to that point with the Trump administration.   For better or worse, it's now Trump's to claim.

No recovery is universal.  Wage growth has been terribly slow unless you were already a part of the wealthy elite.  There are still many pockets of the country that are not sharing in the general recovery.  But the bottom line is that the numbers we most closely pay attention to...are good.

What has the Trump administration done to continue the recovery?  Well, when he became President, rather than drain the swamp, he basically handed the keys to the economy to Wall Street and its friends.  He has let them pretty much write the rules and have their way, which helped fuel a rise in the stock market (at least for a while - that has started to taper off).

The most significant thing that Trump and the Republicans have done for Wall Street, the wealthy and large corporations, is change the tax code in a way that dramatically favors them.  Some of this has been used to fuel the economy.  Frankly, most of it has been used to enrich shareholders and CEOs, and not to invest in capital projects or improve the lot of their workers, but it has created a temporary boost.  Down the road, this huge tax cut will dramatically increase the nation's debt, and will further increase the country's income gap between the wealthy and everyone else.  This will either be resolved by raising taxes, or by cutting necessary support to the middle class and working poor (slashing Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security).

Another huge problem is the trade wars that the Trump administration has embarked on.  This has caused considerable problems in some sectors of our economy, especially agriculture.  Billions have been given to that industry to help prop it up from the damages our tariffs have caused. Our trade imbalance is greater than ever, as the sledgehammer approach is just resulting in bludgeoning blowback.

There are some signs the economy is slowing.  GDP growth is not what was hoped for.  Some industries and segments of the economy have peaked out and are starting to decline from their previous highs (including residential housing and the auto industry).


But all that may be in the future.  For now, the economy, at least as shown by the jobs report, is good, and we need to acknowledge some credit to President Trump and his team.

I just want to make it clear.  If we're going to give Trump credit for the economic good times, if we are going to begin to assign responsibility to him, then we need to assign him a good portion of the blame should the economy start to head south.

Do we have a deal?
 




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