Some believe the solution to our coronavirus crisis is herd immunity. That enough people get this and then get over this, there will be enough of us immune that the virus can no longer get ground to expand.
I'm not a scientist, and unlike a certain orange eyesore, I don't pretend to be one. But unlike that narcissistic plague on humanity, I do know how to listen to them.
And I don't think going for herd immunity is going to do anything except kill more people.
I won't be offering links to different articles. It's not my general policy and not that type of blog. But I do encourage any of you to research this on your own.
Nevertheless, here's my impression of what I have seen -
#1 To get to herd immunity levels will result in an unprecedented number of deaths.
To reach herd immunity levels would require a level of infection of 60 to 80%.
What would that mean?
Let's take Georgia, for example. The current rate of death, the ratio of confirmed deaths to confirmed cases, is 4.3%. This information is calculated from Georgia Department of Health information,
The current estimate of Georgia population, from worldometers.com, is 3,990,327. Let's take the minimum of that for herd immunity, 60%. That would be 2,394,196 people.
If the virus death ratio stays at 4.3%, the number of deaths would be 102,950.
That would just be the state of Georgia.
102,950 souls.
So...
Is it worth it?
#2 We really don't know what kind of immunity is gained.
The level of immunity gained has not yet been determined.
It is a myth that whatever immunity is gained is permanent. The level of immunity acquired from exposure varies with different illnesses, from many years to nothing.
The antibody tests that have been done have so far been inconclusive. There is some evidence that some people may have some limited immunity, but for how long or how strong no one knows.
A recent outbreak in South Korea has been traced back to one person. A person who contracted the virus in March, and then recovered in late March. He began reinfecting people in MAY.
We may go through herd immunity, cost all those lives (if done worldwide, a hundred million or more lives lost), only to find that little or no real immunity has been developed.
#3 We don't know what damage the virus is doing beyond the initial respiratory stage
There are some troubling signs that this virus is doing damage to those who go through it beyond the respiratory difficulties.
Again, please feel free to research, but -
Some autopsies show damage to internal organs in addition to the lungs.
Some with diabetes may be suffering additional kidney damage.
There are children who have developed a rare inflammatory disease as a COVID-19 after effect.
How serious are these? I don't know. Research is still ongoing.
I do know this. If it was your child or diabetic family member, it would be pretty damn serious.
#4 Those who have tried herd immunity have not done well
Sweden was the right-wing poster child for a while (and how often has that happened?), The country had decided to take the herd immunity route and did not shut down. The result? They have more cases than their three neighbors combined (Denmark, Norway, and Finland), and THREE times the number of deaths.
Brazil may be herd immunity by default. Their leader, Jair Bolsonaro, is an even farther right fascistic leader than our own President Bone Spurs, and he has rejected any notion of a shutdown. After a slow start, Brazil is now rocketing up the charts with number of cases and deaths. A few weeks ago, they were not in the top twenty. Now they are sixth and should soon pass Italy in the number of cases.
Our third by default example, may be the state of Georgia. Yes, many states are lifting stay-at-home orders, at least partially, but no one is doing it with as much glee and ignorance as Governor Kemp and his ghoulish allies. The effect of this has not fully reached Georgia yet. We should know in a few weeks. IF they don't fudge and manipulate the numbers. And what are the odds of that?
So what are we supposed to do?
What we were doing, or starting to do.
Check with those countries most able to hold the virus in check, including South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand, and Iceland, and states like Oregon and Wahington. Staying at home and social distancing, accompanied by testing and contact tracing WORK. Even if there are setbacks, they can be checked and controlled.
Worried about the economic effects on you and your family? You should be. But if we had a government dedicated to supporting our working families through this, as many other countries have, this would be much less of a problem.
Millions dying is not the way to recover the economy.
First, control the curve of the outbreak, Bend it down.
Second, TEST TEST TEST and contact trace.
Third, isolate outbreaks.
We can't get through Step One without wanting to pack a restaurant or frost our tips.
We are herding to nowhere, except to more death and pain.
Stay as safe as you can. Because everyone around you is acting crazy doesn't mean you shouldn't try to protect yourself.
God help us in these irrational, terrible times.
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