Short Life Span Predictions: Updated Georgia BLUE

 

Oh, how I want those two in the Senate! 

History does not favor Democrats in Georgia statewide runoff elections.  But historical trends are just that - trends, and trends can be broken.  Just ask Barack Obama or Kamala Harris.

If you asked me mid-November, I would have only given about 20% odds that Ossoff and Warnock could win.

I've since changed my mind.  I don't think it's any kind of lock, but I do think it's at least even money.

Early voting turnout has been incredible, and the Republicans have acted like they don't want to win, with a mighty thanks and a hat's tip to their toddler-in-chief, Trump, whose erratic and spoiled behavior has put his own selfish interests ahead of his party.

I may be proven wrong in relatively short order, but here goes my best analysis:

Unless there is a decisive margin in same-day voting for Democrats, this will go on for a while, anywhere from two days to a week. 

The way the vote is counted, absentee ballots are at the end of the counting train.  If you'll remember the Presidential election, it was with these votes that Biden pulled ahead.

There is nothing wrong with this.  Every vote counts equally.  It's the way the state has chosen to count.  Some states count early vote and absentees first.  It's why at first, it looked like Biden might be competitive in Ohio and Texas. It's also why he was behind at first in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin - because the Republican legislators in those states set same-day vote to be counted first.

So...

if Ossoff and Warnock lead after the first set of same-day voting comes in - start the party! Congratulations, Rev. Warnock!

If it's close, even if the Republicans have a slight lead -  get ready for a party! Looking good, Jon Ossoff!

If the initial Republican lead is slightly greater, say three to four points - hang in there and start the prayer vigil. Well, thank goodness we don't have to suffer through that!

This is not a done deal.  But I have hope. Hope is alive!  Hope is alive!

Updates to follow!

UPDATE 7:11 AM

WARNOCK WINS!  WARNOCK WINS!

All major networks have declared Warnock the winner, and he leads with over 53,000 votes, with about 98% of the vote reported.

Ossoff has not been called, but he leads Perdue by 16,370 votes.

Most of the vote remaining is reportedly in Democratic areas!

I have never been more proud of my chosen home state, Georgia!

As I saw Rob Reiner state on Twitter, "John Lewis is smiling down on us!"

SECOND UPDATE

OSSOFF WINS!  OSSOFF WINS!

This occurred during the Trump incited Capital Riot, and did not get the attention it deserved.

He will be the youngest Senator we've had since Joe Biden was first elected. 

And what does this mean, not just for Georgia but the country as a whole?

Yep.  McConnell no longer controls the Senate.

With all the horror over what happened at the Capital, there is now a light at the end of the tunnel.

Thank God!  And the voters of Baby Blue Georgia!