Actuaries make a lot of money. The insurance industry depends on them to evaluate their risk in making and pricing policies.
Actuaries use mathematics and statistics to measure life expectancy and the risk of insurance companies in making specific policies.
Actuaries can't know for certain about individuals - they can only make predictions about a group and statistical likelihood.
So, please, when I talk about the actuary of American politics, I'm not making predictions about any specific individual. We've had political figures whose lives have been cut unexpectedly short. We've had others who've lived a long time. Jimmy Carter may now be in hospice care but is still with us at 98. Henry Kissinger just had his 100th birthday.
In general, actuaries would agree that the older you get, the more risk you run. Some of that risk is not death but incapacitation, unable to function physically and/or mentally at a level sufficient for the tasks they are responsible for.
Yes, both Biden and Trump are falling into an area of greater actuarial risk. The odds of both being healthy enough to compete vigorously in the 2024 election is not high. Not impossible, but not high.
But there are other places where we run an increased actuarial risk. We have a number of Senators that are in the upper brackets of aging. There are 10 Senators aged 75 to 79. There are five over the age of 80. With the narrow split in the Senate (51 to 49 caucusing for the Democrats), any health crisis could unbalance the Senate.
A case in point would be 89-year-old Senator Finestein of California's recent extended bout with illness that left her unable to perform her duties for many weeks. This made it difficult to impossible for the Democrats to move ahead with judicial nominees, as her vote was crucial in moving them forward.
Different states have different rules for replacing a US Senator if necessary. So, anything could happen.
The following is not necessarily based on death but on enough incapacitation that the Presidential candidate cannot continue running -
In a normal election, Biden should be Trump, but if it is not Trump, then Biden might have a more challenging time. I've seen enough of DeSantis to not believe he is a viable candidate, but he would be significantly younger than Biden. If Republicans are smart enough to run a Republican who is not an extremist on abortion and other cultural issues, they would have an excellent shot at beating Biden.
If Biden cannot run for a second term, the Democrats would most likely run Vice President Kamala Harris. I greatly admire her and think she would be a first-rate President. I am less sure of her ability to run in the hailstorm of negative press and Republican nastiness that would come her way.
Some day, at some point in time, the Democrats will need to turn to a younger Progressive. Of course, my first choice would be Congressperson Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. But it isn't likely for 2024. As younger voters gain voting strength, she and others like her will become more viable.
Change will be coming in our body politic. That is also an actuarial certainty.
It may not be in 2024. But it is coming.
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