This is my final 2024 projection for the 2024 election!
The above is my overly rosy projection for the Electoral College.
My less rosy projection is Harris 328 and the fascist 210.
Something's happening, and the polls aren't always catching it. Some polls are sponsored by and skewed by one party or the other (although to be honest, this is mostly a MAGAt game). Others are misapplying lessons learned in prior elections. Pollsters always overadjust. This time they are underestimating the furor of women and the youth vote. They are overestimating MAGA-style Republicans.
This does not include the fact that many people are no longer answering their phones. Even text messages are left unanswered. I had one pollster try to message me several times. I looked up the organization polling and decided it was not legit.
Examples of a trend towards Harris - the highly reputable Iowa Poll that showed her winning Iowa by 3 points! Also interesting was the Kansas poll that showed Harris within five points! The last time a Kansas election was within five points was in 1896! The last Democrat to win Kansas was LBJ in 1964! Heck, FDR lost Kansas in 2 out of his four races! The fascist won Kansas by 15 points in 2016 and 11 points in 2020. What kind of seismic shift must be occurring for Kansas to be almost in play?
2024 HOUSE
My house projections:
Rosy: Democrats 236 Republicans 199
Less Rosy: Democrats 226 Republicans 209
I am confident that Hakeem Jeffries will be the Speaker of the House for the 119th Congress. I'm less sure of the margins. However, I would not be surprised if the final numbers are even rosier than I suggest!
I would love to see a Congress without Boebert, MTG, and Gaetz. However, that may be difficult because they are in very red districts. Of the three, Boebert is the most vulnerable.
2024 SENATE
My Senate projections:
Rosy: Democrats 54 Republicans 46
Less Rosy: Democrats 51 Republicans 49
These numbers are with all the Independents caucusing with whom they really belong.
The Senate is the one I'm least sure about and makes me the most queasy. Because of the seats at risk, with Democrats having to defend the most territory, the natural course of events favors the Republicans.
If the Republicans control the Senate, it would be a disaster. No one will get confirmed, leaving hundreds of vacancies. No legislation would pass, even bipartisan legislation. And I am afraid, with the Harris administration able to get little done, the 2026 backlash will be ugly, with morons blaming Harris rather than the Republican Senate.
The Republicans that I most want gone include Cruz of Texas, Scott of Florida, and Hawley of Missouri.
I am sorry. I cannot picture a scenario where the Orange fascist wins. But if he does, I fear for the nation. I fear for the world.
The MAGA fascist movement, the Christian nationalists, the billionaire bros - they all must be stamped out. Or at least neutered.
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