It's time for political excitement and fun!
Let's start by entering the speculatron and see how the 2012 Presidential race is shaping up. In the Democratic corner we have reigning champ President Barack Obama! He's looking pretty good, making many tough, pragmatic choices that have led to an improved situation for the United States after the massive fiscal, foreign policy, economic, civil liberties and environmental devastation left by the last administration. No, he hasn't gone far enough, but it takes time to dig out. I think he is in excellent shape to be re-elected. The economy has to continue to improve, an iffy proposition given the policy stranglehold the Republicans have. It won't be an easy ride, and never discount the irrationality of the media and the independent voter, but I would still take the major odds that President Obama will be re-elected.
On the Republican side, it looks like a real mess. Any one who can make it through their maze of extremist primaries (especially Iowa and South Carolina) will be completely unelectable. But I can't see the Republican powers-that-be handing their nomination over to the likes of Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachmann, or even Ron Paul. No, they want a hard-right BUT business/corporate candidate to win the nomination. That is why my single best bet is that Jeb Bush will be quasi-drafted as a compromise candidate to keep the party together. But for them to go to this trouble they will have to decide the nomination is worth something.
The next best chance for a Republican would be with one of the Republican Governors...someone fairly new whose credibility isn't completely destroyed by their state's growing hatred of them. This could be a host of candidates, ranging from Tim Pawlenty (MN), Chris Christie (NJ), Mitch Daniels (IN) or even, God forbid, Scott Walker (WI). I suppose Romney has an outside shot, but I really feel like he's a paper tiger, and fades quickly when people actually have to vote. Jon Huntsman (UT) has some good Republican qualities, but may be too tied to the Obama administration thanks to his generous service as Ambassador to China.
Could a so-called Tea Party/Conservative Populist emerge? Unless the economy turns brutally horrible, or there are more pure racists country than even I believe, I think not. If any outsider builds momentum, I do think the Republican insiders will do whatever they can to destroy that candidate. Ron Paul is particularly vulnerable to this.
This shutout of the lunatic right, I believe, will lead to a strenuous third party effort, led most likely by Sarah Palin, but I wouldn't rule out someone else. Maybe Michelle Bachmann, maybe Jim DeMint. But I would bet on the human maverick Palin. She won't be able to set for a normal run, and this way she gets to write her own rules. Her skin is so thin, she won't be able to handle the grind of competing with other Republicans.
So there you have it, a great three way, between Obama, Bush and Palin. Hope every body's got plenty of popcorn!
