It's time for political excitement and fun!
Let's start by entering the speculatron and see how the 2012 Presidential race is shaping up. In the Democratic corner we have reigning champ President Barack Obama! He's looking pretty good, making many tough, pragmatic choices that have led to an improved situation for the United States after the massive fiscal, foreign policy, economic, civil liberties and environmental devastation left by the last administration. No, he hasn't gone far enough, but it takes time to dig out. I think he is in excellent shape to be re-elected. The economy has to continue to improve, an iffy proposition given the policy stranglehold the Republicans have. It won't be an easy ride, and never discount the irrationality of the media and the independent voter, but I would still take the major odds that President Obama will be re-elected.
On the Republican side, it looks like a real mess. Any one who can make it through their maze of extremist primaries (especially Iowa and South Carolina) will be completely unelectable. But I can't see the Republican powers-that-be handing their nomination over to the likes of Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachmann, or even Ron Paul. No, they want a hard-right BUT business/corporate candidate to win the nomination. That is why my single best bet is that Jeb Bush will be quasi-drafted as a compromise candidate to keep the party together. But for them to go to this trouble they will have to decide the nomination is worth something.
The next best chance for a Republican would be with one of the Republican Governors...someone fairly new whose credibility isn't completely destroyed by their state's growing hatred of them. This could be a host of candidates, ranging from Tim Pawlenty (MN), Chris Christie (NJ), Mitch Daniels (IN) or even, God forbid, Scott Walker (WI). I suppose Romney has an outside shot, but I really feel like he's a paper tiger, and fades quickly when people actually have to vote. Jon Huntsman (UT) has some good Republican qualities, but may be too tied to the Obama administration thanks to his generous service as Ambassador to China.
Could a so-called Tea Party/Conservative Populist emerge? Unless the economy turns brutally horrible, or there are more pure racists country than even I believe, I think not. If any outsider builds momentum, I do think the Republican insiders will do whatever they can to destroy that candidate. Ron Paul is particularly vulnerable to this.
This shutout of the lunatic right, I believe, will lead to a strenuous third party effort, led most likely by Sarah Palin, but I wouldn't rule out someone else. Maybe Michelle Bachmann, maybe Jim DeMint. But I would bet on the human maverick Palin. She won't be able to set for a normal run, and this way she gets to write her own rules. Her skin is so thin, she won't be able to handle the grind of competing with other Republicans.
So there you have it, a great three way, between Obama, Bush and Palin. Hope every body's got plenty of popcorn!
While I agree with you that the Republican side is a little, shall we say, disheveled, I think that you are giving too little credit to Mitt Romney. He is smart, has good business/economic sense and a healthcare bill that is not as far-reaching as Obama's and with the many people who didn't want Obama's plan and are already feeling the hit from it (health premiums jumping a minimum of 10% AGAIN this year) his plan may win him some voters who are frustrated with Obamacare.
ReplyDeleteDo you really think this county is going to elect another Bush? And why on earth would he want to run when all anyone has done for the last 2 years (at least) is bash his father? That sure wouldn't make my want to jump in the race.
Lastly, you commented above that Obama's choices have led to an improved situation for the United States. How exactly? Unemployment is still up (ask Michael how difficult it is to get a job), education continues to be hit with devastating cuts, the housing market is still slumping, gas prices are unbelievably high, food prices are all up ($6.00 for a jar of peanut butter), insurance is going up. How have we improved?
Thanks so much for your well though-out response! I genuienly appreciate the dialogue. As I've said before, Romney may be the least nasty choice out of a very bad bunch, and it does show that you do take practical considerations in whom you choose to vote for. Whoever is going to be President will have to reach out to all sides and not push only for ideologically pure positions. Romney has shown remarkable flexibility in the past in adopting a wide variety of shifting positions. This does make it hard, however for him to negotiate the minefield of the Republican nomination.
ReplyDeleteI am not impressed by Romney's business credentials. For one thing, running the country is absolutely nothing like running a business. A godd CEO does not have the right skill set - look at the way Snyder is trying to run Michigan. An authoritarian CEO might work in a corporation - in a democracy it's a disaster. For another thing, Romney's primary experience seems to be as a corporate raider, downsizing companies and eliminating good-paying jobs.
The problem with the Health Care package is that it's too much like Romney Care and not enough like a single-payer system. All our health care solutions are going to fall short until we switch to that. And I have no idea why they decided to phase the program in over such a long period of time.
Again, I'm willing to talk to you and other conservatives about healthcare, but as soon as it's apparent that your program will leave people out and vulnerable, I have no interest in your plan. No more medical bankruptcies! No more donation cans in groceries stores! If the richest nation on Earth can't organize a health care program that helps all of it's people, than being the richest nation on Earth doesn't mean shinola.
Oh, So You Think you Can Dance is done! I'll write more later!