Wall Street is not your moral compass.
You cannot judge how well the moral soul of the nation is doing based on how the stock market reacts.
I despise Trump and MAGA with every fiber of my being.
I don't think that when the stock market is doing well, that means Trump is doing the right and decent thing. I don't think that when the stock market is down, that is a clear sign that everything Trump is doing is wrong.
Blanket tariffs are a bad thing. They will hurt us all. We will have to pay more for almost everything. Inflation will rise again. We will experience shortages again. Domestic production is not likely to return to the United States. If any of it does, it will likely cost more unless the USA returns to super-low wages, and the cost of construction is passed on to taxpayers. If it creates jobs, many of them will be positions that Americans would rather not have. It will mostly create opportunities for robots and AI. The manufacturing sector has changed, and it is not always stocked full of the high-wage jobs you think it is.
But the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) doesn't care about any of that. They only react to stockholder value. Will whatever the government does increase or decrease that shareholder value?
When Trump announces blanket tariffs (without regard for reality or economic impact), the stock market plunges. When Trump says, "Psych! Just kidding about some of those!", the stock market may rise.
Meanwhile, those with advanced knowledge of Trump's moods can "play the market" by buying low and selling high.
Because the other aspect of the market is that much of it is legalized gambling. Short sales, buybacks, all sorts of weird stuff that are beyond the scope of my everyday knowledge, happen all the time. The 2008 crash had a lot to do with gambling games that stockbrokers and bankers were playing with, involving mortgages.
So, my feelings about Trump and MAGA are not based on these short-term fluctuations in the markets. It is not my moral compass that should be used to judge whether what the fascists are doing is good or bad.
Virtually all of what Trump is doing is bad, and it may not be reflected in the markets.
The market does not just react to tariff news. The stock market may rise when unemployment increases, because increased labor competition could lead to lower wage increases. It might celebrate legislation that makes it harder to unionize. It might reward Amazon for understaffing and abusing labor, and punish Costco for paying its workers too much. It might be disturbed if polluting companies have to pay to clean up the damage they do.
It doesn't care. Shareholder value, and the fact that it will rise forever, is capitalism without ends or limits.
The flip side of this is that I know that if Progressive values ever take hold, as promoted by people like Bernie Sanders and AOC, may cause a flip-out of the market. They would throw a hissy fit if they thought things like universal healthcare and free college were coming. Much of what our capitalism thrives on is the exploitation of the working class, not just in wages but also in keeping them in debt. They love things like student loans, payday loans, buying furniture on rent-to-own terms, high home and car prices, and medical debt - these are all money-making opportunities for the capitalist class.
So, when the stock market throws a hissy fit over Progressive changes, I am not going to dwell on it. I am not going to let that convince me that we cannot change. That our moral compass cannot be fixed, and that we forever have to give in to the wealthy and oligarchic power.
Wall Street is not my moral compass.
Tom Strait
AOC '28