The Longest Break: Keeping Your Distance 40

Hello.

I've been away for a while.  I've taken about my longest break in several years from posting a new blog entry or even posting blog entries to social media.  The only breaks that have been longer were when I was on vacation. 

I've been involved in a min-tax season that concluded yesterday.  It's not like the old days, but it did require me to get up early and get going instead of writing something.    I find I write best in the mornings.  As the day wears on, so does my cognitive attention.

When I go to write, I am so often filled with rage about Trump, I find it hard to concentrate on something else.  I had an excellent idea for a funny, nostalgic story, but I lost it when I failed to note anything about it, and the crush of other concerns evaporated it from my noggin.  If I ever get it back, I will note it on my magic phone device, and then wax nostalgic about it on what I am sure will be an award-winning blog post.

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I had my vitals recorded in a wellness check last Friday.  Given my wandering away from a strict diet regiment that I was doing the first three months of the year, my numbers were pleasantly better than I was expecting.  I am hoping that when Benjamin goes back to school, my diet will improve, and Alison and I can support each other in our efforts.  We'll see.  I do love me some cookies.

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COVID-19 is coming closer and closer.  Two people at my work had to test because they were exposed to positive relatives.  One had the results come back negative, and the other is still waiting for results, and it's been almost TWO WEEKS. 

We know of four people in the last few weeks of massive heart attacks, at least two of which were COVID-19 related.  Our beloved Reverand Kit lost her brother to the virus.  A man who lives two doors down from us is in ICU.

All this is happening while I have to listen to people tell me this is no worse than the common cold, and we go to the grocery store where only about a quarter of the people are wearing masks.

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How am I doing?  Okay.  My diet has relaxed, but I have kept up with exercise.  My health has been pretty good, and any depression has been short-lived and not too deep. 

I am an introvert.  That has had its pluses and minuses.  I don't miss other people as much as some of y'all do.  I miss that we were not able to go to Michigan and that I have not been able to visit with Doug and Paige.  But honestly, I don't miss meetings of organizations, and I have not had the craving to be in a play as much as I thought I might.

I have to attend a monthly meeting on ZOOM for our church vestry.  I'm the Treasurer, and they're hard for me to miss.  I don't connect in a way where they can see me, so they all think I'm naked or something.  I don't like to talk, except for the Treasurer's Report.

The big problem is that this plays into my introversion too much.  The more I am away from people, the shyer I get, and the less I like to talk.  It takes me a long time to get comfortable with people.  That's why I like to be in plays - after a few weeks, I start to open up and feel like I fit in.  Most of the time, I don't feel like I'm worthy - that most people are superior to me.

Anyways, that withdrawn nature I have is amplified by what is going on.  Plus, I'm 65 now, and I've found I really like being at home.

It's hard to say what I'm going to be like when this is over (don't hold your breath).  I may be less participatory than I was before.  I might be more.  Hard to say.

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I have a lot more thoughts, as disjointed as they may be.  But I'll save those for another post.

Hopefully, the break between them won't be as long.

America's Grand Re-Closing: Keeping Your Distance 37

We didn't behave.

And now we are suffering the consequences.

There are parts of the world that are returning to normal.

New Zealand reduced its cases to zero.  For a month!  And now they are returning to their national pastime, Rugby, with a full stadium crowd!

Why?  Because they behaved.  They had a great national leader, Prime Minister Jacinda Arden, who led an aggressive, early lockdown, and now they are reaping the benefits.

There are other sections of the world where they have subdued the first wave.

Americans have not.  Our top leadership wanted us to re-open quickly, and damn the consequences.

Too many interpreted masks and social distancing as an affront to personal liberty - I have a right to be an asshole and endanger others with my behavior!  Harrumph!

Se, instead of moving to re-opening, instead of conquering the first wave -

We are letting it crest higher.

Want to re-open?

Then do the following -

WEAR A MASK

PRACTICE SOCIAL DISTANCING

ENCOURAGE TESTING

SUPPORT CONTACT TRACING

This ain't rocket science.

Well, maybe that isn't the best comparison for some Americans.

After all, rocket science is a hoax - we really didn't go to the moon, that was done on a Hollywood backlot.

"I pledge allegiance to the Flag of the United States of America and to the Republic for which it stands, one nation, indivisible, with liberty and..."*

...aaaaand, that's it.  Liberty, but no justice for all.  And not just any liberty - PERSONAL LIBERTY.  The kind of narcissistic, self-centered liberty that is willing to sacrifice others to do what you feel entitled to do.  No matter who it hurts.  The kind that says, "My personal liberty is more important than your civil rights, and my personal liberty is more important than social responsibility."

Worried about the second wave, are ya?

Hell, we might not ever get out of the First Wave.

*1923 version of the Pledge of Allegiance.  Changed in 1954 to include under God.  This was to help distinguish us from the Russian Communists.*

*offer void and prohibited by the Trump administration who now embrace the Russian Communists, even when they put bounties on killing our soldiers.  I guess we'll keep the under God phrase, although you have to wonder what God thinks of that now.

America's Dope Takes Dope : Keeping Your Distance 26

Tom!  This is such a misleading headline!

Hydroxychloroquine is not dope.  It's legitimate medicine!

Yes.  When properly prescribed for certain conditions, where the doctor knows the patient and can watch for side effects, it CAN have its proper uses. 

But when misprescribed for DOPEY reasons for someone who is a DOPE - well, that's something else.

There is no proof that this medication has any effect on coronavirus.  Indeed, some studies have shown adverse effects, with a more significant death rate among those taking it than in the control group.

The medicine does have other side effects and risks, including potential heart damage up to and including heart attacks.

So..so what?  He's an adult (?), and he found a doctor that prescribed it (we'll pretend for a moment that he couldn't get prescribed whatever the heck he wanted) so, more power to him.

Why the problem?

Because he's the President of the United States, doing something foolish, stupid, and DOPEY.  And others may decide to go off the cliff with him.

We have gone full snake oil salesman.  And I am disgusted.


The risks are not just that he'll hurt himself.  As Nancy Pelosi says, he's not without risk - he is morbidly obese and has the diet of a teenage gamer.  Some of his medical exams have indicated the presence of some heart disease. 

As risky as this is, other elements to it are just as dangerous.

Let's say that he takes it and he doesn't get coronavirus.  He's going to falsely attribute it to the drug, encouraging other Americans to take the drug, and putting them at risk.  And if he doesn't develop side effects, it's going to make it look to others like the side effect concern is overblown.

He encourages other dopes to think they're immortal and immune.  Especially with the way that Trump refuses to wear a mask or distance himself, he promotes that behavior in others.

A reporter trying to safely interview protestors in upstate New York was confronted by an unmasked man who was getting too close.  The reporter asked the man to distance himself, and he refused.  The man said, "I don't have the virus.  I'm taking hydroxychloroquine!"

Oh, geez!

The doping of America is in full swing.


Addendum:

The panel on Morning Joe seemed to be convinced that he wasn't really taking it, that he was just lying for whatever twisted purposes he has.   Maybe.  If so, it just makes things worse.

Herding to Nowhere: Saturday Political Soapbox 246

Some believe the solution to our coronavirus crisis is herd immunity.  That enough people get this and then get over this, there will be enough of us immune that the virus can no longer get ground to expand.

I'm not a scientist, and unlike a certain orange eyesore, I don't pretend to be one. But unlike that narcissistic plague on humanity, I do know how to listen to them.

And I don't think going for herd immunity is going to do anything except kill more people.


I won't be offering links to different articles. It's not my general policy and not that type of blog.  But I do encourage any of you to research this on your own.

Nevertheless, here's my impression of what I have seen -

#1   To get to herd immunity levels will result in an unprecedented number of deaths.

To reach herd immunity levels would require a level of infection of 60 to 80%.

What would that mean?

Let's take Georgia, for example.  The current rate of death, the ratio of confirmed deaths to confirmed cases, is 4.3%. This information is calculated from Georgia Department of Health information,

The current estimate of Georgia population, from worldometers.com, is 3,990,327.  Let's take the minimum of that for herd immunity, 60%.  That would be 2,394,196 people.

If the virus death ratio stays at 4.3%, the number of deaths would be 102,950.

That would just be the state of Georgia.

102,950 souls.

So...

Is it worth it?


#2 We really don't know what kind of immunity is gained.

The level of immunity gained has not yet been determined.

It is a myth that whatever immunity is gained is permanent.  The level of immunity acquired from exposure varies with different illnesses, from many years to nothing.

The antibody tests that have been done have so far been inconclusive.  There is some evidence that some people may have some limited immunity, but for how long or how strong no one knows.

A recent outbreak in South Korea has been traced back to one person.  A person who contracted the virus in March, and then recovered in late March.  He began reinfecting people in MAY.

We may go through herd immunity, cost all those lives (if done worldwide, a hundred million or more lives lost), only to find that little or no real immunity has been developed.


#3 We don't know what damage the virus is doing beyond the initial respiratory stage

There are some troubling signs that this virus is doing damage to those who go through it beyond the respiratory difficulties.

Again, please feel free to research, but -

Some autopsies show damage to internal organs in addition to the lungs.

Some with diabetes may be suffering additional kidney damage.

There are children who have developed a rare inflammatory disease as a COVID-19 after effect.

How serious are these?  I don't know.  Research is still ongoing.

I do know this.  If it was your child or diabetic family member, it would be pretty damn serious.


#4 Those who have tried herd immunity have not done well

Sweden was the right-wing poster child for a while (and how often has that happened?),  The country had decided to take the herd immunity route and did not shut down.  The result?  They have more cases than their three neighbors combined (Denmark, Norway, and Finland), and THREE times the number of deaths.

Brazil may be herd immunity by default.  Their leader, Jair Bolsonaro, is an even farther right fascistic leader than our own President Bone Spurs, and he has rejected any notion of a shutdown.  After a slow start, Brazil is now rocketing up the charts with number of cases and deaths.  A few weeks ago, they were not in the top twenty. Now they are sixth and should soon pass Italy in the number of cases.

Our third by default example, may be the state of Georgia.  Yes, many states are lifting stay-at-home orders, at least partially, but no one is doing it with as much glee and ignorance as Governor Kemp and his ghoulish allies.  The effect of this has not fully reached Georgia yet.  We should know in a few weeks.  IF they don't fudge and manipulate the numbers.  And what are the odds of that?


So what are we supposed to do?

What we were doing, or starting to do.

Check with those countries most able to hold the virus in check, including South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand, and Iceland, and states like Oregon and Wahington. Staying at home and social distancing, accompanied by testing and contact tracing WORK.  Even if there are setbacks, they can be checked and controlled.

Worried about the economic effects on you and your family?  You should be.  But if we had a government dedicated to supporting our working families through this, as many other countries have, this would be much less of a problem.

Millions dying is not the way to recover the economy.

First, control the curve of the outbreak,  Bend it down.

Second, TEST TEST TEST and contact trace.

Third, isolate outbreaks.

We can't get through Step One without wanting to pack a restaurant or frost our tips.

We are herding to nowhere, except to more death and pain.

Stay as safe as you can.  Because everyone around you is acting crazy doesn't mean you shouldn't try to protect yourself.

God help us in these irrational, terrible times.

Dimming Prospects of Avoiding a Second Wave: Saturday Political Soap Box 243

Greatly discouraged today. I spent a good deal of time carefully selecting pictures to go with this post, photos of the stay-at-home protest in Michigan, and of the beaches opening of the Jacksonville Beaches.  I've learned the hard way that posts without pictures are viewed much less than those with pictures.

But that's only a tiny reason I am discouraged.  I am discouraged because the evidence is mounting that we will not be able to sustain social distancing and that the second wave in this country is going to be horrendous.

It's not just the lunatics in Michigan, protesting at the capital and temporarily blocking the entrance to Sparrow hospital, one of Michigan's largest and most important medical facilities.  It's not just the lemmings that insist on going back to the beach.

And it's not just the Trumpeteers.  Yes, Trump is responsible for the depth and severity of our crisis.  He has done all the wrong things and shown himself to be soulless while doing it.

No, I see reactions from more than just Trumpeteers.  Non-political people and even some left-leaning people seem to be itching for this to be over with.

Why?

Reasons vary.

Some people's personalities are such that social isolation is more than they can take.  They're extroverts whose lives are built on constant social contact.  It's not a big problem for me, BUT, in all fairness, Alison and I have had a continuing work schedule, and we have each other and Benjamin.  So we really haven't experienced total house confinement.

Some have had their work effected to such a degree where the economic stresses, potential and actual, are beginning to accumulate.

Some feel like the economy is more important than human lives.  This is a group that upsets me greatly, and no, I do not have sympathy for or any understanding of their position.  It infuriates me so much that I don't want to say any more about it in this post.  Maybe later, when I'm in a calmer frame of mind.

It's not helpful that the President keeps talking like we do this soon, backed up by FOX News, OAN, and fake reality-TV show doctors.


Do I want social distancing to last the 12 to 24 months until a vaccine is in place?

It's not a matter of what I want, but it is a matter of what has to be done.

If we are to leave or reduce social distancing, we have to do the right way.

We have to have massive testing.  We have to have contact tracing.  We have to be prepared, in some cases, to shut back down as quickly as we opened.

Rural counties think they should be given a pass?  Sorry.  Where I live and work, Ware and Pierce Counties, the current numbers show us in a statistical hotspot.  It's here, folks.  It's not academic.

So, the federal government needs to facilitate massive testing, contract tracing, PPE, ventilators, other medical equipment, and increase hospital bed capacity, both regular and ICU.

That does not help with financial concerns.  The COVID bill should have been flipped, with virtually no money going to large corporations, and tons more going to individuals and small business.  We are only stressed about keeping the economy going because so many of us live from paycheck to paycheck.  Many other countries have giving individuals thousands per month, or guaranteeing up to 80% of an individual's regular salary.

I can't go into a long economic dissertation here (I've already probably lost over three-quarters of my readership - that would just about eliminate everybody else).  But please try to grasp this -

THE GOVERNMENT BUDGET IS NOT LIKE A HOUSEHOLD BUDGET.

The government can print and print money.  There is no gold standard anymore.  They can do it, and right now, they should do it.  The national debt seems scary, but it is a false issue.  That is not a problem.  The problem with printing money is potential inflation.  That problem exists when the economy is already revved up, and you just flood it with more money.  That is not the case here.  You can't put enough money in the system right now to create inflation.

I know this isn't easy.  Whether psychological, economic, or god help us, ideological, it's tough to do this.

So, I'm just asking one thing.

Don't squaller at the Governors for trying to do the right thing, the smart thing.

Save your wrath for those who are not helping us get out of this - for those who are fighting mass testing and contacting tracing, for those who fight Medicare For All and other improvements to the social safety net, fro those who oppose help to small business, for those who insist on defying our best medical experts.

Sorry, Governor DeSantis.  Professional wrestling is not essential.

I hate to be so pessimistic.

It makes me aware of how rare the Greatest Generation was, the one that got us through the Depression and World War II.  Because we are behaving the opposite of that.

The Greediest Generation, the most self-centered generation.

And our poster child?

President Donald J Trump.

I pray that I am wrong.

Everything Old is New Again: Keeping Your Distance 3

Yep.  Everything old is new again.

And, yes, I'm aware that the Spanish Influenza epidemic was in 1918 & 1919, and not the roaring twenties.

Or that technically the "twenties" start with 21 and not 20.

But what the hey.  We accordion time a lot.  If people know that the American Revolution occurred in the 1700s, that already puts them in the top tier of historically knowledgable Americans.

And, yes, that devastating illness that killed tens of millions, became known by an ethnic name.  Odd because it started on a military base in Kansas, but there you go.

It has been a long time since we named pandemic diseases after countries or ethnic groups. SAARs, Ebola, Swine Flu, Aids - none have names designed to slur a group (well, maybe swine flu slurs pigs).  So why the effort by the President and his Fox News Goebbels team to start calling it the Chinese Flu?

Seriously.  You don't know?  I think I can figure it out.

It's a scary time.  We don't need to throw racial animus in the mix.

Did it start in China?  Most likely, yes.  Did somebody eat something they shouldn't have?  It's not impossible, but I don't think they know that definitively.

Before you look down on somebody in China who might have done something stupid to start this, I must remind you that we do not have a shortage of stupid people in the United States.

We have idiots who eat Tide Pods, and people who intake all kinds of dangerous drugs.

There is a video on the webs of a defiant young lady trying to prove God knows what by licking a toilet seat on the Internet.

We have morons who think they're immortal partying on the beaches of Florida, believing even if they get COVID-19, they are young and healthy and will survive it.  They give not a whit for anyone else they come in contact with. 

Of course, we eat a lot of questionable things in this country too.  We love raw food, include the Asian treat of Sushi, and much of our diet is so terrible that it slowly killing us.  Not as visible an epidemic as COVID-19, but causing considerable harm.

So, please, don't use the racist language promulgated by the President and his media assistants.

Like it or not, it's a global crisis.

And it will take a global solution.

Meanwhile...how 'bout we take a moment to unsober things and start spreading something fun...like roaring twenties pics and videos - let's see some modern flappers!

Original flapper...looking for some updates!

Essential Personnel: Keeping Your Distance 2

My old stapler broke, and they were kind enough to give me a new, state of the art stapler to use at my workplace - the one that I am still going to.

Even in a crisis such as this, where social distancing has become crucial to our mitigating the effects of the spread of COVID-19, we have essential personnel who must continue to function as best they can.

There are people we cannot do without - medical personnel, police, firefighters - all the brave first responders that have to stay at the forefront of this dangerous epidemic.  We respect their service and encourage their employers to use whatever safety measures and equipment that can be deployed to protect them.

Others serve roles that are less prominent but also important.  Those who help staff the grocery stores and other establishments that provide the goods and services we need.  This includes those who are manning restaurants and fast food places, even as they turn into carryout only places.

Many others are no longer going into work.  Some of those are still being compensated, at least for now.  Others may have limited sick leave.  But another large group have no sick leave and nothing to fall back on.

Some may be working from home. If they are fortunate enough to have a position that allows them to work that way.  That is probably more common in the large urban areas than it is where I live.

Benjamin is one that will be adopting to online work.  His college is now closed for the semester.  It is a shame because he was really getting to love college life, getting excellent grades, and socializing, participating in more extra-curriculars than he did in high school.

The school system that Alison works for is out for the next few weeks (minimum), and that includes teachers and most school board personnel.  But not Alison.  She will be helping with the feeding program (her job is in school nutrition).  Many students only get the meals they need because the school provides them.  And that has to continue.  So she is part of a plan to keep these children fed.

Some she worked with were skeptical that they would get the help they need to do this, because right now, many will be paid whether they come to work or not.

They were wrong.

As of yesterday, they already had 42 volunteers.

My own work?

It marches on.  People are still turning in tax and accounting work, and it must be done.  We are a small firm, and not set up for work from home.  Although I suspect, if this continues, that may be coming.

The important lesson of this?

We may or not be working right now, but we all need to help each other through this dark time, as best we can.

There are no exceptions.

We are all essential.

 

Keeping Your Distance

Welcome to the new age of social isolation.

Is it justified?  Yes, I'm sorry.  I'm afraid it is.  Have their been other diseases more deadly?  Sure, but not as widely and easily spread. At least in the last 100 years.

Its insidious nature is that for many young people, the symptoms and virulence of COVID-19 are relatively mild. But even though it is mild with them, it is highly contagious, and they are inadvertently spreading it to more at-risk populations, like the elderly and those with disabling conditions.

Let's take a look at the most recent numbers, as I write this.  There are 166,000 cases globally, and a death toll in excess of 6,400.  That in and of itself represents a death rate of 3.8%.

But that might not be the fairest contrast, because many of those are cases where the people are currently sick, and the outcome is not yet known.  The reported numbers on the estimated 83,400 resolved cases are, 77,000 recovered and 6,400 fatalities. That represents a resolved case death rate of  7.7%.

Contrast this with the devastating Spanish Influenza outbreak of 1918, where estimated deaths range from upwards to 50 million.  And the death rate was roughly 2%.

2%.

So, stop it with the over-reaction talk.

South Korea and China have shown that isolation measures do work to mitigate the spread of the disease.  So, yes, we have to adopt the same measures.

All that being said, I still don't understand the run on toilet paper.  Not everything makes sense, I guess.

I'm not an intensely social person.  I participate in community theatre and church, and occasionally some other groups, but for the most part, I'm happiest at home with my family, books, TV, and my writing endeavors.  Growing up in Michigan, I loved snow because it sometimes meant that I could stay at home - not have to go to school or work,

Even though I have those proclivities, this feels different.  This is going to last significantly longer than being snowed in, or hunkering down for an impending hurricane.  I'm not sure people are quite aware of how long this will last.

In the area that I live, there is a 'Capri pants' aspect to it.  By that, I mean, our little rural area is the last to pick up on things, using fashion as an example.  The Capri pants fad started in the bigger cities, filtered down to the suburbs, and then finally hit this area months after other areas had stopped wearing them and had moved on.

So, isolation is slower to occur here.  People are still out and about.  Some of our many Trump fans are reluctant to admit anything is going on at all.  DEMOCRAT HOAX!  That hasn't stopped the hoarding of toilet paper, even here.

In my home county, Pierce, I am not aware of any cases.  Like I said, it'll probably come here last.

Schools are finally reacting here, responding just ahead of a probable state government edict to shut down schools.  This shutdown is going to cause ripple-effect problems, including how it may affect working families and who will watch their youngins' if the parents still need to work. It also will affect those who depend on school for meals.  Sad but true, that poverty is so high in this country that we have become reliant on schools for basic nutrition.  Meanwhile, the Trump administration is scheduled to slash food stamps for many on April 1st.

If my work allows (my CPA day job), I am going to do the utmost to keep up my blog during this difficult time.  Writing and reading are some of the best ways we can stay socially connected right now, and I will do my best to keep it up.

Your fvorite quasi-hermit,

T. M. Strait

Pandemic Possibilities

Fear of the Coronavirus is spreading faster than the virus itself.  Are we right to be scared?


Maybe.

It's been just over a century (1918) since Spanish influenza killed upwards of 50 million people worldwide. Since that time, medicine has made considerable progress in combatting many diseases and threats.  But it can't solve everything.  And we haven't advanced enough to altogether remove ourselves from mother nature.

So, I don't know.  Some recent signs show it may be spreading in ways that cannot be controlled.  A case yesterday appeared in California out of the blue, with no connection to travel or other primary contacts.

This could peter out on its own.  It may hit a maximum expansion rate. There is some evidence that the exponential growth rate in China is slowing.  Or it may be just their reporting.  In any case, the number of cases across the globe is still growing, encompassing all continents except Antarctica (according to the President warm weather kills it - so, hey, Antarctica - you're in the clear! Thank you, global warming!).

Or it could continue to spread.  Maybe it will become universal - virtually everyone on the planet gets it.  Unlike Captain Trips in Stephen King's novel, The Stand, where the fatality was 98% or more, the fatality rate of the Coronavirus is around 2%.  That's better, right?


That's 140 million people.  The same rate that caused such traumatic events in the television series The Leftovers, where 2% of the Earth's population vanished.

But there's no need to fear!  Tumplethinskins has put Vice President Mike 'Handmaid's Tale' Pence in charge!

Yes.  All that, and Pence is also devoted to end-times theology.

What could possibly go wrong?

I pray that this has peaked and will pass.

But we need to listen to the voices of experts on how to deal with a potential pandemic.

Not those who are just trying to cover their own ass and are more interested in the stock market than people.