I used to do a feature within Saturday Political Soap Box called the Speculatron, where about once a quarter, I would speculate as to coming events in the political world. I wasn't always accurate, but for the political buff in me, and my love of speculative fiction, it was a fun thing to do.
It's been a long time since I 've done one.
Why?
The future has been hard to face. My usual long-term optimism has fled me, and I see fewer and fewer ways out of our current dilemma. Problems are so severe that even the election of the very best we have to offer may not be enough to save us.
And it's becoming clearer and clearer that we may not elect our best.
I would love to project that the Democratic nominees will be a team of Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar, or Warren/Kamela Harris.
I can't predict that. Because it appears that I am totally out of synch with the Democratic primary voter. Somewhere, somehow, the fear of Trump is so strong that we've turned our back on female candidates, and also people of color. We're scared that these people will not be effective in running against Trump, that only a white candidate can draw the votes needed to win.
What poppycock and horse hockey. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Women and people of color drive Trump crazy and cause hin to say more and more disgusting things. His allies will not be able to contain themselves, and go too far, if not for the dedicated Trumpeteer, than for a significant majority of Americans.
This irrational decision of Democratic voters was driven home to me by an Iowa exit poll. 58% of Iowa Democratic caucus-goers were women, but even though they had two incredibly well-qualified women as candidates, they did not support either one in a significant way. There was going to be no surge of sisterhood like there was for Hilary in 2016.
So my preferred outcome for 2016, female candidates for both President and Vice-President, look increasingly unlikely.
So, where then are we headed?
Bernie is the front runner right now. I like Bernie. Bernie is building support among non-whites now - did you know that? Nah, the media doesn't report on that. To be the nominee, he must show he can grow support beyond the base of his highly-dedicated supporters. He not only has to achieve, but he also has to overachieve. No one is going to let a Progressive be the nominee unless he is beating everyone else by significant margins, He'll have to take not just the lion's share of the delegates, but a MAJORITY of the delegates. Being slightly in front will not be enough to stop the large army of media and political pundits from savaging him.
Mayor Pete is a reasonably nice guy, and he has a chance to throw up enough smoke that people aren't sure whether he is Progressive or Corporate. This may work for a while, but I don't know if he can keep it up. I would feel a lot better about Mayor Pete if he had a bit more executive experience (statewide) and legislative experience behind him.
Biden...I don't know what to say. It's clear to me now, particularly from his Iowa Caucus night speech, and some other recent times I've heard him, that he has lost a step. I still think he is highly qualified to be President, but he is a lousy campaigner and the most visibly aged of the candidates. I would not rule out a comeback - Super Tuesday has states with more diverse constituents, and most of them will know him primarily from ads and the great job he did as Obama's Vice President, rather than his town halls and campaign appearances. It's not likely, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.
I am Team Warren. I make no excuses about that. I will be with her until she withdraws. She is not likely to leave before Super Tuesday, so that is who I am voting for. It's dim for the home team, but nevertheless, we Warrenites persist. She has the talent and abilities to be a first-rate President, and a greater ability to work with all sides than she has been given credit for. Not only does she have to fight the current prejudice against female candidates, but she is being squeezed out from the Progressive vote by the loyalty to Bernie Sanders, and on the moderate side by the rise of Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
Klobuchar...she is far too conservative for me, but...I have to admit she is demonstrating the skill set to be a good President. I find her the best of the moderates. I wouldn't be overly thrilled if she got the nomination, but I would be comfortable with it. She has to demonstrate an ability to win votes beyond her moderate base and pull in Progressives and people of color. Her, in combination with Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, or Julian Castro, might be quite an exciting ticket.
Bloomberg...I find his candidacy very upsetting. I can't talk about it, even write about it without getting overemotional. Nominating him would signal our country's complete surrender to the wealthy oligarchs. How any Democratic, of any stripe, could consider this super-rich Republican/Independent is far beyond my comprehension.
It's hard to speculate about what I fear. And I fear a Bloomberg candidacy. Would I vote for him over Trump?
I would vote for Ted Cruz over Trump. I would vote for a ham sandwich over Trump. So, yes, I would vote for Bloomberg over Trump.
But it would make me very sick to my stomach. I would not want to be the next person in the voting booth after me. It might not be pretty or smell very good.
I haven't got to Trump and his accelerating march towards authoritarian fascism. This is something else that is too disturbing to speculate on. He has learned from his Senate acquittal. He has learned he can get away with anything, and he won't be stopped. God help us all.
Bottom line?
I can't accurately predict the Democratic nominee. My hopes for a good outcome are too low, my fear of a bad outcome are too high.
Pushing me to make my best guess?
Klobuchar/Booker.
If it can't be Warren, that's the next best outcome I can project.
Please, just don't let it be Bloomberg.
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