The Biden Premium: Saturday Political Soap Box 272

 

After a self-imposed exile of one month, I am back to my blog, baby!  LIKE IT OR NOT!

First up, as promised to my many conservative fans (Kimberly! Kermit! Rhonda! Rolf! Dayton! Dean! Deanetta! Nicole! Nicodemus! David! - I'm talking to you!* - maybe- well, they're really just names plucked out of a hat - kinda),  I am following up my Trump Premium with a -

BIDEN PREMIUM!

Now, I would not expect this to be zero.  The US and world have been through a lot, and you can't expect everything to turn on a dime.  I did allow for a small transition, stopping the Trump Premium on January 20th and beginning the Biden Premuin on March 2nd.

As a reminder, the total Trump premium was...

288,285

That is the total number of covid deaths that EXCEED what would have been expected in the US had we had a proportional share of the world's covid deaths and then DOUBLED based on the fact that, well, faux personal liberty and all that.

Now, I will go through the same calculations that I did for Trump, but with the number accumulation beginning on March 2nd.

Let's start by conceding that it might be fair to assume that the US would have at least a share of the cases based on its proportion of the world's population.  Estimates vary on this, but I think a reasonable percentage would be 4.25%.  That's a little bit of rounding, but not much.

This is based on numbers provided by the Bing COVID-19 tracker.  Please keep in mind this is in constant flux, rising every hour.  As of 8 AM May 1, the global total of confirmed COVID-19 deaths (from March 2nd to the present) is -

637,975

We then look at that number and take out the number of US deaths to reconfigure what it would look like with a proportional number of US deaths based on US population -

637,975 - 62,509 = 574,466

Then we take that number, adjust it up to cover what it would be with 4.25% of COVID-19 deaths attributable to the US.

574,466 / 95.75% = 599,964

599,964 * 4.25% = 25,498

25,498**

Our population share of the global COVID-19 deaths would be 25,498.

But let's give Biden the same benefit of the doubt I gave Trump.  Even under the right leadership, we are not the best-behaved country on Earth.  We can't have expected to react as well as South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand, or even China.  We just have a bone-deep strain of rugged individualism (politically incorrectly version - selfish pricks -people who value their personal liberty over social responsibility).  So, let's say we behave WORSE than the rest of the world (well, except maybe Brazil), even with the leadership saying and doing the right things. I know this is horrible, but let's say we are TWICE as bad as the rest of the world.  So let's double the number we could expect under good leadership -

25,498 * 2 = 50,996

So, where does that leave us, comparing the number of COVID-19 deaths we have to the number that we might have had under the ideal US conditions?

62,509 - 50,996 = 11,513

So, a fairer number to use with Biden,  as of Saturday morning May 1 at 8AM EST, is 11,513, rounding to 11,500.

See, Trumpeteers?  I'm being fair and using the same method as I did with Trump.

Why is it not zero?

Well, there's a long history to get over—a lot of problems to conquer.  Biden delivered on what he promised - shots in arms (doubling his promised projection) and checks in pockets.  Like him or not, he said he'd do it, and he did it.

The behavior of the American people, in many places, is still atrocious.  There are a lot of very right-wing state governments opening way too early.  People think they smell the finish line and are beginning to abandon caution.  You don't want to even get me started on how Southeast Georgia is behaving.

One other important note.  I've been periodically updating the Biden Premium, and I should tell you that two weeks ago, the number was... 17,000.

Yes.  In two weeks, the Biden Premium has gotten SMALLER, NOT BIGGER.

There's no guarantee that will continue to be the case.  

But I pray that it is.

*please forgive my brief Romper Room moment.