Here is what you have been waiting for.
The summary of Election 2022 and what it means by the unrenowned political analyst T. M. Strait, whose posts over the last decade have received around 30 views apiece (more or less).
So, what do I think of the last election?
It went much better than I expected, but I don't think it was the fabulous slam dunk Democratic celebration that many media commentators and Democratic activists thought it was. It's true that they did as well for a first-term President's midterms as you could expect, dating back to Roosevelt.
But...neither did they have any significant breakthroughs that help Biden govern. The House is thinly Republican but Republican nonetheless. And the Republican MAGA crazies hold the balance of power. Expect no significant legislation. Expect Hunter Biden's laptop 24/7. Expect constant calls for impeachment.
The Senate is in better shape. It may help expedite federal appointments (judges, cabinet officials, etc.). But, despite the "improved" majority and media overconfidence, we're still at the mercy of Manchin and Sinema. Schumer on Wednesday: Woohoo! We have 51 Democrats and are a solid majority! Sinema on Friday: Hold my beer.
Here are my major takeaways from the 2020 election:
Incumbents Rule, Challengers Drool
Although incumbents usually win into the 90% range, this election cycle was particularly incumbency. In the Senate, every Democratic incumbent won, but so did every Republican. The only changeover occurred in Pennsylvania, where Fetterman beat an out-of-state snake oil salesman.
It was more of a victory for incumbency than for either political party.
Gen Z is coming!
As a bona fide political nerd, I've been listening to political elections since before puberty. I can't ever recall hearing where the youth vote made a difference. But it did this time. And I am amazed and thrilled.
As older generations fade, the impact of Gen Z will rise. Political affiliation often gets affixed early, and it sticks. We've been stuck with the Boomers and Reagan Babies for a long time. And, yes, I'm a Boomer, but I got influenced by politics earlier than most of my peers (60s), and I came from a liberal home. Nothing is 100%, but there were too many of us conned by Nixon, and then Reagen; too many that got swallowed by Greed is Good.
New York and California are Really Bad at Gerrymandering
Believe it or not, if New York and California had done a better job at forming new Congressional districts and taken campaigning a little more seriously, the Democrats would have held the House. Seriously. I'm not kidding. The guy who ran the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Sean Maloney, lost his race (partially redistricted) to his Republican challenger. I mean, my God, we almost lost Katie Porter, the California Democratic SUPERSTAR!
Stop listening to James Carville
In many ways, I like James Carville. He is a vocal advocate for Democrats, But his concept of Democrats is stuck in the old Third Way compromise Clinton Era. For God's sake, don't let your Progressive flag fly. Be fiesty, but only advocate policies that can best be described as Republican Lite. Well, bullcrap! I want a party that STANDS for something. We're never going to get the progressive values and policy solutions that Americans show they favor in poll after poll.
That doesn't mean you have to be a flower child. You have to show an affinity for the working man. Two Progressives that did this and WON were John Fetterman and Raphael Warnock.
As the election got to the last day, Joe Scarborough and other media moderates/conservatives were singing the praises of Tim Ryan, Democrat running for Senate in Ohio. Ryan was feisty but also s conservative/moderate, not taking any really bold stances. Ryan debated well. Ryan also lost to a genuinely creepy MAGA Republican, JD Vance. It was about the only Trump-endorsed candidate that won (particularly when you consider those Trump actually rallied for).
And I know. You're saying that was Ohio. It's pretty red. True, but Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown wins there election after election, and he is a no-bones about it Progressive.
Issues that Mattered
Abortion mattered. Republicans caught the car and now they don't know what to do with it. Unfortunately, they are on the wrong side of this, and every state referendum will show what a mistake they made.
Democracy mattered. Virtually every election denier lost.
Yes, for some, inflation mattered. Particularly for Republican voters.
Issues that Didn't Matter
It breaks my heart, but COVID didn't matter. If it did, Kemp and DeSantis would have been consigned to the dustbin of history.
LGBTQ+ hatred, CRT, immigration - none of these had a major impact. Yes, there is a fraction of the American people for whom these issues matter a great deal, especially in the most MAGA areas, so it really didn't change things.
Global warming/climate change did not have much influence, except for maybe Gen Z. We will pay the price for ignoring this.
Trump is Toast
His influence only proved to work in a negative direction.
I know. It's been said many times, in many ways, that Trump is a goner. But there's something different this time.
I think it's finally sinking in what a political loser he is.
This is not all cream and gravy.
You need to be fearfully aware of...
THE IDES OF DeSANTIS!
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Ok, this is much longer than I thought. It's more of an essay than a summary. It probably means I'll only get 12 who read it instead of 30.
Sigh.
Windmill tilting is exhausting.
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