Into the Dark: Late Spring Speculatron - Saturday Political Soap Box 304

 Will we find our way out of it? Will we ever see the other side of our authoritarian nightmare and return to a more civil democratic republic?  Will we escape like Hungary finally turning aside Orban, or will we live in a dystopian nightmare for decades like North Korea?

I don't know.  We can only turn to the SPECULATRON *   and guess.  

Will we plunge ever further into the dark? Or will we finally turn to the light of democracy and resume America's path to greatness and freedom?

I don't know. 

Well, that kind of destroys the spirit of prognostication, don't it?

There are many reasons to fear that we will not return to democracy anytime soon.  Many of our institutions are hanging by a thread.  Courts dominated by right-wing extremists who could negate progressive legislation, an Electoral College skewed towards advantaging small rural states and southern conservative states, relentless gerrymandering by conservative legislatures designed to lock in power for generations, a media largely dominated by rich right-wing zealots, a Christian Nationalist church with over-sized influence, and an increasing debt that will saddle future progressive efforts.

Is there hope?

Yes.  Consider the picture above.  Yes, Republicans use ridiculous cultural issues to inspire their supporters.  Vilifying trans persons is just the newest boogeyman.  They've been doing stuff like that for generations.

But sometimes, the fires rage too high, and they bring enough people over to make a difference. Optimistically, I feel like we are approaching one of those times.

What could that mean?

MIDTERMS

Everything else being equal, given (I pray) a minimum of election interference, the Democrats should take control of the House.  There may be no amount of gerrymandering that could prevent this - they are overestimating how many solid Republican voters there are, particularly in the Hispanic community. 

The Democrats should have a solid majority, somewhere between 20 and 40 seats.

The Senate may be closer.  I think the Democrats will eke out a thin majority (two to five).  Nice, but not a 60-vote filibuster-proof majority.  But enough to halt the approval of the most heinous Trump nominees, and (hopefully) freeze the Supreme Court.

And yes, the Democrats should use hearings to investigate the administration's wrongdoing and, if necessary, impeach. But no impeachments will work - there will still be too many Senate Republicans.  So this effort should not be the only thing that Democrats are known for.

They must pass popular progressive legislation in the House, even if the Senate filibuster stops them, even if the President vetoes it.  There must be a clear record not just of stopping the administration's constant excesses, but of a traceable record showing the American people the path they will take when we elect a Democratic President in 2028.

2028 President

And in that 2028 election, Democrats need to nominate a TRUE Progressive.  Mealy-mouthed candidates who receive large corporate donations are not needed.  AOC, Talarico, and Ro Khanna would all be significantly better choices than corporate centrists like Newsome, Buttigieg, or Harris.  Don't get me wrong.  If one of the centrists wins the nomination, I will still vote for them.  And I do believe they can be competent, practical leaders.  I just don't think they meet the moment.  Without decisive progressive legislation that favors the working class, the Democrats will once again be fleeting, as the Republicans rev up the cultural nonsense and tell the working class - see? They didn't do anything for you, did they?

There is little hope that the Republicans will nominate a decent candidate, one who, although conservative, supports constitutional democracy.  The shrinking base has shown in recent Republican primaries that they do whatever Trump wants, no matter how irrational.  So they will nominate from a narrow band of extremists - Trump (in direct violation of the constitution and ignoring his crumbling health), Vance, a sold-out Rubio, and even someone from the America First crowd - MTG, Tucker Carlson, and others, even more vile and disgusting.

So, yeah, that's my more optimistic take.  Even if we take this path, it may take many years to self-correct.

But I got high hopes.

At least for this post.

Until next time,

T. M. Strait

AOC 28

*patent pending.

President Talarico

 

In hindsight, some things seem obvious.

When Barack Obama spoke at the 2004 Democratic Convention and electrified everyone who saw it with his "there are no red states, there are no blue states, there is only the United States of America" speech, it began a trajectory that quickly launched him towards the Presidency.  His message of hope, his cool, calm intelligence and empathy, connected with what many Americans wanted to return to after the years of unnecessary wars, massive deficits, botched disaster relief, and a crashed economy.

President Obama achieved many things, and he ably served two terms, righting much of where America had gone adrift.  He left a gap, however, in that he campaigned as a progressive but governed as a centrist.  This left some disappointed in the breadth of his achievements. 

On the darker side of the inevitable, the resentments simmering, especially by the white working class, led to the consideration of something I thought no one ever considered. In retrospect, the path was determined when the orange grifter came down the escalator with his Epstein wife in June 2015.  With the Democratic elites' rejection of Bernie Sanders, who could have had a broader appeal to the white working class, and the selection of legacy centrist Hilary Clinton*, the ascension of that narcissist was sealed.

And we as a country have suffered irreparable harm over the last ten years.  The Constitution is being shredded, Republicans move solely to the whims of their mad King, racism is ascendant, the economy is declining, and democracy itself is evaporating.

Now, many want to move away from the madness of Trump, from the rule of old men**, from a time when every day you wake up to a new horrific action from an administration built on greed and corruption, revenge and racism. 

Not only has the government been corrupted, but so has the very religion that many in this country have followed.  Christian Nationalism has led the faith into a dark place, worshiping power and control instead of love and generosity.

Enter James Talirico, State Senator from Texas.  Unlike many Democrats, he does not shy away from Christianity.  But his is not a Christianity of fear and hate.  His is one of love and light.  He calls us to use our Christianity to love and help others.

He is running for the US Senate in Texas.  His opponent will either be current Senator John Cornyn (an older mainline Republican who nevertheless kowtows before the antichrist-like Trump), or Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (a deeply corrupt politician, both in money and in sexual misconduct). If Talarico wins, I believe that will launch him on a path to be President of the United States.

Some Talirico quote -

"We as Christians are called to do more than charity. We are called to challenge the systems that make charity necessary." 

"As the hymn says, 'they will know we are Christians by our love.' We have to get back to that."

"The covenant that binds “We the People” together rests on this promise: Power flows from the consent of the governed. When that covenant is broken, when leaders choose their voters instead of voters choosing their leaders, we are not merely witnessing a political maneuver; we are confronting a moral trespass against the very heart of democracy."

He often uses quotes from Matthew that emphasize the importance of taking care of those in need - 

for I was hungry and you gave me food, I was thirsty and you gave me something to drink, I was a stranger and you welcomed me,
I was naked and you gave me clothing, I was sick and you took care of me, I was in prison and you visited me.”

Although I very much like James Talarico, this is not a direct endorsement, just a likely path.  I still am very much for AOC to be our next President.  And current polling shows her to be one of the most popular politicians in the country.

Many things could happen that could divert us from this path.  Talarico has a lot yet to prove, and I don't know of any skeletons (or, with Trump, whether that even matters anymore).

But I do know this.  Whether his path leads to the Presidency or not, his path shows the only way forward for Christianity to survive.  If  Christianity continues down the path of Christian Nationalism. It will either wither away or make Christianity completely unrecognizable.

Even more important than the light that James Talirico shines on democracy is the light he shines on our restoration of faith.

Until next time.

T. M. Strait

AOC '28

* this is not to flame Hilary Clinton. She was the most qualified person to be President, had the talent and temperament to be effective, and she won the popular vote.  She just wasn't meeting the moment that fit the anti-establishment mood.

** make no mistake.  I feel that Biden was a good and arguably great President.  The things he accomplished with the small Congressional margin he had were nothing short of miraculous.  But he was old.  And with the cyclical nature of our politics, like when the elderly Eisenhower was replaced by the younger, more charismatic John F Kennedy; between Biden and Trump, we are ready to turn to a younger generation.

Return of the Speculatron!

 

I used to frequently speculate about the political future.  If you search some of my older posts, you would find regular posts that I call speculatrons, where I opine on the potential of different political outcomes.

In the ugly return of the Trump era, this has become too grim to contemplate.

How a nation could return to someone as foul as Trump is beyond anything I could conceive.  It makes it hard to look at the future when you're staring at the reality of his supreme foulness.

Consider where we're at.

His popularity now ranges between 42 and 38%.  Most of that is with the collapse of independent support.  Most Republicans are still in his camp and will stay there, regardless of the Epstein files or even economic collapse.

What is happening with ICE and the concentration camps is unconscionable.  All economic indicators are moving in the wrong direction, including unemployment, the housing market, and inflation.  The stock market has rollercoastered, but is currently in the same place it was when Biden left office. Truth is being revised, including that, gosh darn, didn't you know? Slavery wasn't so bad.  Government data is being stifled.  We won't know much about the next devastating hurricane or storm, how severely the next pandemic is affecting us, or even the job numbers will be censored and fudged.  

Foreign policy?  The lunatic is aligning with the worst dictators on the planet.  He incessantly whines about how he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize.  Now he is implying that getting one may be his ticket to heaven.  

So, despite all this, he can still get Republicans to listen to him.  And right now, they are willing to gerrymander everyone else's vote away, led by Texas.

Let me clarify.  I hate gerrymandering. Congressional districts should be drawn as independently as possible, along lines that make geographical sense.

Unfortunately, that's not the world we live in.  Recent Supreme Court decisions have opened the way to this madness.  Republicans have done and will do this without impunity, and the Democrats cannot unilaterally withdraw and let the Republicans cheat their way to control.  Even with dwindling numbers, they think they can create enough safe districts to preserve their control of the House.

Enter Gavin Newsom.  He is meeting them tit for tat.  Not only is he threatening (with the people's support) to gerrymander California in response, he is also matching Trump in rhetoric and memes.  It is making Republicans angry as hell to see Trump's own tactics used against him.

But is this the best course to challenge Trump in 2028?

My argument is that Gavin Newsom is the best choice to face Trump in ... 2024. I'm not sure that's what is needed for the future of the Democratic Party in 2028.

Governor Newsom is a strong, formidable candidate.  But he offers nothing new or distinct in public policy.  

And I know what you're going to say.  That politics are largely personality-driven.

That's true, at least for the election cycle you're in.  However, it does not permanently alter the Democratic Party.  It would largely be a party dedicated as much to its corporate and wealthy donors as to anything else.  At most, it would offer small incremental changes.

And that is not what people want, at least the large majority of the working class.  They have to see the Democratic Party as their champions, and I'm not sure any of the mainstream candidates offer that.  And that would include Buttigieg, Harris, Shapiro, and similarly profiled candidates.

You're going to have to be bold.  Medicare for all, free college tuition, increased childcare support, significantly higher minimum wage, taxing the rich.  If the Democrats do not move towards this agenda, they will fail to become the party of the future.

The common wisdom now is that the Democrats don't dare run a woman or a person of color.  That is utter bull hockey.  What is needed is unadulterated progressivism, and a rejection of big-dollar donors. What you say is more important than any perceived demographic appeal.

However, personality and charisma are also important.  I wish that Governor Tim Walz had not been tainted with the Harris loss, but I don't think he can break free of it.  I wish Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren were younger.  Usually, after having had such old Presidents, we switch to a younger one.  I'm not sure anybody who is not under 60 and also high-energy will work.

That is why I'm solidly in AOC's camp.  She is young, vibrant, charismatic, and learning more about politics and how to express them every day.  She has the right positions to appeal to the working class, those with college degrees, across the entire racial and ethnic perspective. 

Yes, the reich wing will try to vilify her.  But they'll do that to any Democrat who runs.  Hell, if it were Joe Manchin, they would attack even him for being a socialist/communist.

It's probably true. Governor Newsom could probably win the election.

But Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez can win the future.

And I'm much more interested in the future of the country than I am in any corporate Democrat.

Until next time,

T. M. Strait

AOC '28!

When Did the Madness Start? Our Most Recent Going Off-Track?

 

In the blog post immediately preceding this one, I explored some of the off-road paths we took that led to the madness we are now in. 

I articulated - probably not very well - the two major threads of American History.  Let me try again.

Thread 1 - this thread upholds the ideals of constitutional democracy.  Although it is not a perfect place, it represents the idea that more equality and opportunity will become available over time.  It's found in the Constitution and the Bill of Rights that followed.  Except for Prohibition (which was reversed in relatively short order), most of the amendments expanded the concept of democracy, rather than limiting it.  Freeing the slaves, direct vote for Senators, and Civil rights, including women's right to vote, have all been a part of this thread.

Thread 2 - a more authoritarian view of the country, eschewing the benefits of immigration, preferring the dominant culture, and disputing the separation of church and state.  All for so-called economic freedom, which is really just allowing the wealthy and powerful to run roughshod over us. Personal freedom is limited to gun ownership, and the right for their version of religion and morality to control us.

These threads often run concurrently in American History.  However, there have been times when one is more in control than the other.

The circumstances that led us to this point have roots that date back to the country's founding.  However, there has been one event that has most recently and clearly allowed the more virulent and anti-democratic thread to dominate over all the others.

And that was the shoving aside of Bernie Sanders, mostly in 2016, but also in 2020.

It's not that Bernie Sanders is the most golden child of all time.  It's not that Hillary Clinton would not have made an excellent President.  It's more about what it represented in terms of time and opportunity lost by the Democratic Party.

Barack Obama was an excellent President.  He did, however, oversell the "change" aspect of his Presidency. People were quite excited in 2008, ready to move past the disaster that Bush and the mainstream Republicans had led us into.

Even though things seemed relatively stable, the dominant mood in 2016 was a rejection of mainstream politics, as practiced by both the Democratic and Republican parties. Whether the country was advancing or not, they did not see themselves as part of that advancement.

The Republican Party was captured by an outsider, one who promised to blow up politics as usual and make things better for the average American.  Of course, it was a huge lie promoted by a narcissistic conman - but it was clearly different from the controlling political elites.

There was an outsider running in the Democratic Party.  One whose policies were solidly in favor of working families.  It was very exciting and promised a return to true progressive policies, not the Third Way incrementalism that had dominated the party since Bill Clinton.

Well, the powers that be were not going to let that stand.  They put their thumb on the scale and tilted things to ensure Hillary Clinton was the nominee.  Would he have won without this tilting?  Maybe. We'll never know for sure.

The bottom line is that, whether they intended to or not, the Republicans decided on something completely different, and the Democrats decided they would stay the course and promote a highly qualified candidate who was also the very epitome of the establishment that many had grown tired of.

Even with all that, it took considerable Russian interference and the weird vagaries of the electoral college to allow Trump to take the Oval Office.

Once he did, he proved to be quite incompetent.  His only legislation, the Tax Act of 2017, greatly favored the wealthy and powerful.  His behavior during the COVID-19 crisis led to hundreds of thousands of excess deaths that more competent leadership could have avoided. His stupid tariff actions almost broke the American farmer.

In the 2020 primaries, Bernie Sanders was once again emerging as a front-runner, and the Democratic Party was a-twitter-pated.  Biden was dead in the water coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire, but he won in South Carolina.  With Biden revitalized and other primary candidates floundering (except for Bernie), one by one, the other candidates dropped out and endorsed Biden.  It was a stampede to protect the mainstream candidate.

Biden won the 2020 election DECISIVELY (despite whatever lies you've heard), and if you ask me, he was a brilliant leader.  He got us out of the Pandemic and subsequent inflation quicker than anywhere else on Earth.  His economic numbers were the most sterling any President has ever had.  His organization of the international effort to support Ukraine was remarkable. He was as progressive as he could be given the small margins in the House and Senate. And the fact that he was dealing with an ultra-conservative Supreme Court.

But large swaths of the American people did not see that. Their carefully culled media kept them fired up and ready to dismiss Biden - no matter what he achieved.

A bad debate performance and a weak-willed Democratic Party led to him dropping out in 2024.  But his Vice President was highly qualified and made for an exciting campaign.  She picked one of my favorite people, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, to be her running mate, and although this was not quite the progressive turnaround I was hoping for, it went a long way.

Unfortunately, some of the establishment consultants got hold of their campaign, muted her and Tim Walz, so they did not appear to be the progressive powerhouses they could be.  For these and other reasons that may take years of analysis and investigative journalism, they narrowly lost the popular vote to someone who should have been in prison rather than running to be a dictator.

Now that we are clearly losing our democracy, now that the authoritarian thread is unraveling anything the democratic thread tried to do, we are once again seeing that the most popular face of the opposition is...Bernie Sanders.  He has the highest positives of any politician in the country.  His rallies with AOC are setting attendance records, even in traditionally Republican areas.

It's crystal clear.  If the Democrats are ever going to regain their footing, it will have to be with a Bernie Sanders-style approach.  However, well-known establishment Democrats are still fighting back.  Dinosaurs* like Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi are resisting change and the newer generation as hard as they can.  

A vice chairman of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), David Hogg (survivor of the Parkland shooting), has suggested running younger, more progressive candidates in primaries against older, more establishment incumbents in safe Democratic districts, to facilitate the change necessary for the Democratic Party to survive. For this effort, establishment Democrats are trying to paint David as a cartoon villain.

It's a tough call to say that the DNC should do this directly.  But...  IT HAS TO BE DONE.

It may take time.  It may not change overnight.  But it does have to change.  Or we really have to sacrifice America's democratic thread.

And I, for one, am not ready to do that.

T. M. Strait

AOC '28

*Yes, Bernie Sanders is old.  But his policies and outlook are forward-thinking.