Is the Pandemic Over? Saturday Political Soap Box 285

 

No. Not really.

But that doesn't stop everyone from acting like it is.

The best you can say is that recent variants have been less lethal than previous variants.  LESS lethal, not NON-lethal.

The vaccination rate at first looked like we were going to the lead the world.  But then the partisan COVIDIOTS kicked in and we his a ceiling of maturity.  We lost our lead and fell behind many other developed countries.

In my area of the world, and increasingly so in the rest of the United States, mask wearing has become a thing of the past.  Less than 5% of the people I see out and about are masked.  And among the unmasked?  Me.  Sad, but true.  I have one in my pocket in case I feel crowded, but that doesn't happen much.

I have been keeping track of statistics daily from the Georgia Department of Health, trying to stay on top of what was happening state-wide and in my local counties.  Several months ago, the DOH cut back to the five weekdays.  Now, they are only posting once a week.

Do the numbers warrant that?  Meh.  Hard to tell,   Cases still exist.  There are still several dozen deaths a day. The numbers are down from the peak of the last surge.  But it ain't over.

Locally, the number of cases haven't gone down.  THEY'VE REVERSED.  Ware County, since the start of the pandemic, had 9,998 reported cases on April 7th.  They were on the verge of five figures! As of the last report, April 20th, Ware County had... 9,894 cases.  WHHHHAAATTT?  Total cases went down 104!

Well.  That could mean 1) they screwed up earlier, 2) they're screwing up now, or 3) they have chortingly applied a new standard that allows them to edit out what they consider marginal cases.

I'n betting on option 3.

Biden and the Democrats have done many good, positive things to help the country weather the pandemic storm.  They did everything humanly (and democratically) possible to promote and make available the vaccines.  They supported mask mandates  wherever they could.  They passed and provided COVID prevention funding.

But hang on to your hats.  I'm going to tell you where the Democrats fell short.

The State of the Union.  When they did that speech sans masks, it sent a message that it was over,  Even to me.  Was it the medically sound thing to do?  I don't know.  I know that many of the congressional Democrats who had not gotten COVID for so long finally scummbed to it.  Granted, they were very mild cases, as they were vaccinated. but they nevertheless got it.

School districts around the country reversed their mask mandates, including New York City under the guidance of NYC Mayor Eric Adams (who also recently got COVID).  Why?  Maybe partly science, but also because they want to stay in office.  It's clear that many parents, for better or worse, don't want a mask mandate, and Democrats fear their power.

I don't like the Democrats caving like that, but I sadly understand the point.  If they don't do it, they will be swept from office.  

I don't understand it.  The politicians most responsible for their state's poor reactions and for endangering more people are being hailed as successes.  It disgusts me.

DeSantis forged state COVID numbers.  He promoted false cures.  He bullied students who dared to wear masks near him.  Every step of the way, his behavior in the COVID crisis has been reprehensible.  And yet...he is likely to be the Republican nominee in 2024.  Can anyone explain that to me?

My church, which has been extra cautious throughout this, no longer requires masks.  Alison does not wear one at work.  It is rare to see them at stores.

Given the current state of the pandemic in Georgia, this may be a fair reaction.

But it is still unnerving.  Because it is not over.  It may be in slight "remission" but it is not gone.

We must remain vigilant.   

Rockin' Flower Wednesday Wanderings; Keeping Your Distance 47

This is an artificial flower in Benjamin's study.  It rocks, sways back and forth 24/7.  I tried to upload a video that would show you this,  and I failed.  I couldn't figure out how to transfer it from my phone to the blog.   Probably if I gave it enough time I could figure it out...but, oh, well.  Not today.

So, trust me.  It be rockin'.

How are y'all feeling this glorious Wednesday?

Truth in numbers:

The number of reported cases in Georgia has been declining, looking at seven-day numbers.  The past three weeks have gone from 19,826 to 17,392 to 14,218.  I feel like this is due to - more mask-wearing in the state, and to fewer tests being administered.  There has not been a substantial decline in positivity rate, each day usually hovering between 10 and 8% - you need to get to below 5% for contact tracing to be effective.

The number of deaths has remained high, 498 to 426 to 476.  Deaths are a lagging indicator, so if cases continue to decline, maybe deaths will too.

Where are the cases?

Cases across the country, including Georgia, are increasing most at college campuses and public/private schools.  This is disturbing to me, as Benjamin's college is no exception.  The University fought valiantly, with mask and social distancing restrictions.  They have done a lot of things right.  BUT that did not stop them from developing hundreds of positive tests.  Students go off-campus and participate in large house parties and other crowded social events, without wearing masks or giving a damn about anyone else (no, Benjamin does not participate in these).  The college President has had to intervene and threaten those who participated with disciplinary action, including the possibility of suspension.  Since saying that, the number of positive cases at Georgia College has declined tremendously.

There are cases in public schools.  Alison's office has had positive cases, including one recently of someone who worked with her, assisting her department,  I am quite angry.  Why?  MASKS ARE NOT REQUIRED AND NOT EVERY ONE WEARS ONE.  

Should schools be opened?  If the proper measures are taken, including mask-wearing, social distancing, and contact tracing, yes, I think it's worth trying.  THAT'S NOT WHAT MOST SCHOOLS IN THIS AREA ARE DOING

I am so angry at the anti-maskers right now.  I can't even begin to articulate it without losing control of my emotions.

Well, we're all going to get it eventually

You've got to be kidding me.  That's the attitude of some around me, and it's disgusting.

You really want to shoot for herd immunity and leave some TWO MILLION Americans dead?  

You really want to risk that many people on a strategy that may not work because we know NOTHING about reinfection or how long immunity may last?

Yes, it's true.  Many get mild symptoms.  80% or more never have to go to the hospital.  And of those, only a fraction go to ICU.  And 2 to 4% who contract the virus die.  Are those acceptable numbers to you?  

I mean, really.  Are you a Vegas gambler?  Maybe you can play the odds.  Maybe your family will get it and they'll all be mild cases.  Is that what you're willing to do?

ARE YOU WILLING TO PLAY COVID-ROULETTE WITH YOUR FAMILY'S LIVES???

Let me answer for myself - 

Hell No!

Double Triple Hell No!

But I don't get a choice.  Alison and Benjamin are both subject to whatever anti-masker covidiot that comes near them.

I hate their attitude - Do not interfere with my right to infect you!

I apologize. I meant to cover more topics.  It's just hard to do when the lives of your family members are at stake.

Georgia By the Numbers #5: Keeping Your Distance 45

I'm going back to basic black for this, but with a bold type.  Three weeks from now I may have to go black bold in italic.

People are wondering.

Are we anywhere back to normal?

Honestly, I think only the most delusional are asking that now.  Although, many are acting like this is over, or buying into the conspiracy theories that the death of 171,000 is just overblown.

Update:  Where have we gone in the three weeks since I Posted the fourth Georgia by the numbers?

People are starting to press.  No one in my area is pressing anymore.  THEY'RE JUST GOING OUT - FEW MASKS, LITTLE TO NO SOCIAL DISATANCING.  Some businesses (e.g., Kroger, Wally World) have gone to masks required status, and in those places, I see many more masks BUT NOT COMPLETE COMPLIANCE.  That simple compliance, that minor bit of human decency, is further fading away as people realize that, in most stores, the requirement is toothless - they won't be sanctioned or sent out of the store for not wearing one.

When can we go to a restaurant?  Based on the crowds I see, people are going NOW.  This remains true.  

When can we be in a play, or attend one?  WACT put on a play in for late June.  I don't know any right now, although one WACT has scheduled in the Fall is one I'd very much like to be in, but won't in the current environment.  WACT had tryouts this week for a new play, one I wanted to be in.  I was asked to participate, but I had to turn it down.  They were able to cast it.

 When can we go to church? Some, but not all, have opened up. My church is still closed, but it is now the exception rather than the rule.  We have established extensive guidelines for what we do when we come back. As of now, our standards are in place, and we have prepared for re-opening, but have not gone beyond online services yet.  Our church added a virtual coffee hour (a zoomy thing), that was very nice, a good way for people to talk to each other.  It wasn't my cup of...coffee...but I did respect its value.

When can we hold in-person meetings of our favorite clubs and organizations? I'm not sure about this one - I think most people are still doing ZOOM.  Given the scheduled Trump rally Saturday, I'm glad I don't live in Tulsa.  Not to mention his indoor performance in an Arizona mega-church and his race-baiting speech at Mt. Rushmore in South Dakota. HOWEVER, we're close to Jacksonville and the scheduled Republican convention.  Oy.  There is now some queasiness bout holding that convention as Florida's numbers have skyrocketed.  At a minimum, masks may be required, and that does not sit well with Captain Bone Spurs.  Stunningly, the narcissist-in-chief has backed down and canceled the Jacksonville portion of the Republican convention.  Do you know how bad things must be for him to do that?  Well, apparently still not bad enough to stop him from pushing schools to re-open.  Opening night of the Democratic Convention was actually quite good - highly polished and there were some excellent speeches - it may be the future of conventions, even after the COVID-19 era.

Some of these and related questions have been answered by Governor Kemp - sure!  Go ahead and do it!  After all, things are getting better here in Georgia!  Kemp has a few common-sense rules, but they are widely ignored.  Lately, Secretary of State who Referee-ed his way to becoming Governor Kemp, has made pro-mask noses. Still, there is no mandate to require them, as the culture war cry continues to howl - I HAVE THE PERSONAL LIBERTY TO RISK MAKING YOU SICK!  MY PERSONAL LIBERTY TRUMPS (!) PUBLIC HEALTH!!!  Nothing's changed here except Kemp suing the Mayor of Atlanta for daring to have a mask-required policy.  This week, Kemp dropped his lawsuit against Atlanta. 

Kemp has his hands full just managing the opening of schools.  Yes, many schools in the state have reopened, or are re-opening soon. That is not going well.  Some schools have had to close back down already.  Others are trying to bull through, and it is not pretty.

Well...

Have we had 14 days of declining numbers, as the CDC suggests?

All I can go by is the Georgia Dept of Health numbers, updated three times a day.  Honestly, they may not be the most trustworthy numbers.  There have been press reports that suggest that Georgia and Florida have been manipulating and/or suppressing data to make their states look like they're recovering.

That may be true, but let's just take the Georgia Department of Health numbers and see what the state itself is reporting.

I've looked at seven-day accumulations, starting with May 5th, in two categories, confirmed cases and the number of deaths.  Results are summarized below -


                                                   Confirmed Cases                    Confirmed Deaths

May 5 - 11                                       4,565                                          198

May 12 - 18                                     4,281                                          205

May 19 - 25                                     5,117                                          199

May 26th - June 1st               4,499                                       241

June 2nd - June 8th             4,598                                        119

June 9th - June 15th             5,917                                        286  
             
June 16th - June 22nd         7,514                                        154

June 23rd - June 29th       13,489                                       136

June 30th - July 6th           17,647                                         94

July 7th - July 13th                 23,505                                        148

July 14th - July 20th               25,006                                        150

July 21st - July 27th               25,268                                         333 

July 28th - August 3rd           24,952                                         333

August 4th - August 10th       23,590                                        387

August 11th - August 18th     19,836                                        498 


 The increase in numbers in the most recent week looks very ominous.  The rise everyone feared is here, but everyone around me still acts like it's over.  The numbers keep rising, and some around are beginning to wonder, but many still spout conspiracy theories.

Cases have skyrocketed.  The most recent week is about three times greater than three weeks ago.  Deaths have not.  Why?  We have to be careful not to presume too much.  It could be that hospitals and doctors have learned more and are getting better at mitigating the worst.  It could be that younger people are getting COVID-19 in more significant numbers, and have a better survival rate.  It could just be a lagging indicator- it takes two to three weeks to see the full effect from current cases.  We don't know.  Only time will tell.

I am very sorry to report that time has told.  Deaths are rising.  I wish it was otherwise.  

As you can see by the most recent three weeks, weekly numbers of COVID-19 cases are declining.  Part of that is a good thing.  The numbers of tests being administered are declining, although the positivity rate is still high.  The number of deaths continues to rise, sadly, demonstrating that it is a lagging indicator.  Hopefully, the decline of cases is real, but....

And then came the opening of school.  We're still early on in knowing the full effects of that.  It's not that schools can't be opened.  It's that they can't be opened in the way we're doing it.  I would not send my kid to school if masks were not required.  That's the bottom line minimum.  And we're not doing that.

I'll let you know in two to three weeks.  

The verdict is in.  Cases are rising in most states, especially in the South and Sunbelt.  And continue to, with Florida leading the deadly parade.

The President has suggested that the way to beat this is to simply stop testing.

So, the major question is...

Why do I still have friends who support Bunker Boy?  For me, this still remains the central question of our times.  I am not comforted by the polls showing Biden with a double-digit lead.  I honestly feel, with all my heart and soul, that there should be no one left supporting Trump.  NO ONE.  ABSOLUTELY FRIGGIN' NO ONE.

Georgia by the numbers #1 comments in regular black.  Numbers #2 comments in red.  Georgia by the Numbers #3 comments in blue.  Georgia by the Numbers #4 in...whatever this color is...brown, purple, I can't tell.  Georgia by the Numbers #5 in bold black.

   

Georgia By the Numbers 4: Keeping Your Distance 42

Seriously gonna have to rethink this each three-week update in a different color thing.  I'm running out of colors that show up clear enough to read,

People are wondering.

Are we anywhere back to normal?

Honestly, I think only the most delusional are asking that now.  Although, many are acting like this is over, or buying into the conspiracy theories that the death of 150,000 is just overblown.

Update:  Where have we gone in the three weeks since I Posted the third Georgia by the numbers?

People are starting to press.  No one in my area is pressing anymore.  THEY'RE JUST GOING OUT - FEW MASKS, LITTLE TO NO SOCIAL DISATANCING.  Some businesses (e.g., Kroger, Wally World) have gone to masks required status, and in those places, I see many more masks BUT NOT COMPLETE COMPLIANCE.

When can we go to a restaurant?  Based on the crowds I see, people are going NOW.  This remains true.  

When can we be in a play, or attend one?  WACT put on a play in for late June.  I don't know any right now, although one WACT has scheduled in the Fall is one I'd very much like to be in, but won't in the current environment.

 When can we go to church? Some, but not all, have opened up. My church is still closed, but it is now the exception rather than the rule.  We have established extensive guidelines for what we do when we come back. As of now, our standards are in place, and we have prepared for re-opening, but have not gone beyond online services yet.

When can we hold in-person meetings of our favorite clubs and organizations? I'm not sure about this one - I think most people are still doing ZOOM.  Given the scheduled Trump rally Saturday, I'm glad I don't live in Tulsa.  Not to mention his indoor performance in an Arizona mega-church and his race-baiting speech at Mt. Rushmore in South Dakota. HOWEVER, we're close to Jacksonville and the scheduled Republican convention.  Oy.  There is now some queasiness bout holding that convention as Florida's numbers have skyrocketed.  At a minimum, masks may be required, and that does not sit well with Captain Bone Spurs.  Stunningly, the narcissist-in-chief has backed down and canceled the Jacksonville portion of the Republican convention.  Do you know how bad things must be for him to do that?  Well, apparently still not bad enough to stop him from pushing schools to re-open.

Some of these and related questions have been answered by Governor Kemp - sure!  Go ahead and do it!  After all, things are getting better here in Georgia!  Kemp has a few common-sense rules, but they are widely ignored.  Lately, Secretary of State who Referee-ed his way to becoming Governor Kemp, has made pro-mask noses. Still, there is no mandate to require them, as the culture war cry continues to howl - I HAVE THE PERSONAL LIBERTY TO RISK MAKING YOU SICK!  MY PERSONAL LIBERTY TRUMPS (!) PUBLIC HEALTH!!!  Nothing's changed here except Kemp suing the Mayor of Atlanta for daring to have a mask-required policy.

Well...

Are they?

Have we had 14 days of declining numbers, as the CDC suggests?

All I can go by is the Georgia Dept of Health numbers, updated three times a day.  Honestly, they may not be the most trustworthy numbers.  There have been press reports that suggest that Georgia and Florida have been manipulating and/or suppressing data to make their states look like they're recovering.

That may be true, but let's just take the Georgia Department of Health numbers and see what the state itself is reporting.

I've looked at seven-day accumulations, starting with May 5th, in two categories, confirmed cases and the number of deaths.  Results are summarized below -


                                                   Confirmed Cases                    Confirmed Deaths

May 5 - 11                                       4,565                                          198

May 12 - 18                                     4,281                                          205

May 19 - 25                                     5,117                                          199

May 26th - June 1st 4,499                                          241

June 2nd - June 8th 4,598                                          119

June 9th - June 15th 5,917                                          286  
             
June 16th - June 22nd 7,514                                          154

June 23rd - June 29th 13,489                                         136

June 30th - July 6th 17,647                                          94

July 7th - July 13th 23,505                                          148

July 14th - July 20th 25,006                                          150

July 21st - July 27th 25,268                                          333 


 The increase in numbers in the most recent week looks very ominous.  The rise everyone feared is here, but everyone around me still acts like it's over.  The numbers keep rising, and some around are beginning to wonder, but many still spout conspiracy theories.

Cases have skyrocketed.  The most recent week is about three times greater than three weeks ago.  Deaths have not.  Why?  We have to be careful not to presume too much.  It could be that hospitals and doctors have learned more and are getting better at mitigating the worst.  It could be that younger people are getting COVID-19 in more significant numbers, and have a better survival rate.  It could just be a lagging indicator- it takes two to three weeks to see the full effect from current cases.  We don't know.  Only time will tell.

I am very sorry to report that time has told.  Deaths are rising.  I wish it was otherwise.  


And then came the Fourth of July Weekend.  A massive nationwide orgy of misbehavior.  What will be the effects of that?

 I'll let you know in two to three weeks.  Tragically, I think the numbers have answered that.

The verdict is in.  Cases are rising in most states, especially in the South and Sunbelt.  And continue to, with Florida leading the deadly parade.

The President has suggested that the way to beat this is to simply stop testing.

So, the major question is...

Why do I still have friends who support Bunker Boy?  For me, this still remains the central question of our times.  I am not comforted by the polls showing Biden with a double-digit lead.  I honestly feel, with all my heart and soul, that there should be no one left supporting Trump.  NO ONE.


Orginal Georgia by the Numbers comments in black.  Georgia by the Numbers #2 comments in red.  Georgia by the Numbers #3 comments in blue.  Georgia by the Numbers #4 in...whatever this color is...brown, purple, I can't tell.

If this keeps up, I'm gonna run out of colors.  Yeah, right now I'm down to the mystery colors.

Georgia By the Numbers 3: Keeping Your Distance 39

People are starting to think.


We go to a restaurant!

Update:  Where have we gone in the three weeks since I Posted the second Georgia by the numbers?

People are starting to press.  No one in my area is pressing anymore.  THEY'RE JUST GOING OUT - FEW MASKS, LITTLE TO NO SOCIAL DISATANCING.

When can we go to a restaurant?  Based on the crowds I see, people are going NOW.

When can we be in a play, or attend one?  WACT put on a play in for late June.

 When can we go to church? Some, but not all, have opened up. My church is still closed, but it is now the exception rather than the rule.  We have established extensive guidelines for what we do when we come back.

When can we hold in-person meetings of our favorite clubs and organizations? I'm not sure about this one - I think most people are still doing ZOOM.  Given the scheduled Trump rally Saturday, I'm glad I don't live in Tulsa.  Not to mention his indoor performance in an Arizona mega-church and his race-baiting speech at Mt. Rushmore in South Dakota. HOWEVER, we're close to Jacksonville and the scheduled Republican convention.  Oy.  There is now some queasiness bout holding that convention as Florida's numbers have skyrocketed.  At a minimum, masks may be required, and that does not sit well with Captain Bone Spurs.

Some of these and related questions have been answered by Governor Kemp - sure!  Go ahead and do it!  After all, things are getting better here in Georgia!  Kemp has a few common-sense rules, but they are widely ignored.  Lately, Secretary of State who Referee-ed his way to becoming Governor Kemp, has made pro-mask noses, but there is no mandate to require them, as the culture war cry continues to howl - I HAVE THE PERSONAL LIBERTY TO RISK MAKING YOU SICK!  MY PERSONAL LIBERTY TRUMPS (!) PUBLIC HEALTH!!!

Well...

Are they?

Have we had 14 days of declining numbers, as the CDC suggests?

All I can go by is the Georgia Dept of Health numbers, updated three times a day.  Honestly, they may not be the most trustworthy numbers.  There have been press reports that suggest that Georgia and Florida have been manipulating and/or suppressing data to make their states look like they're recovering.

That may be true, but let's just take the Georgia Department of Health numbers and see what the state itself is reporting.

I've looked at seven-day accumulations, starting with May 5th, in two categories, confirmed cases and the number of deaths.  Results are summarized below -


                                                   Confirmed Cases                    Confirmed Deaths

May 5 - 11                                       4,565                                          198

May 12 - 18                                     4,281                                          205

May 19 - 25                                     5,117                                          199

May 26 - June 1                              4,499                                          241

June 2 - June 8                                4,598                                          119

June 9 - June 15                              5,917                                          286  
             
June 16 - June 22                               7,514                                          154

June 23 - June 29                              13,489                                         136

June 30 - July 6                                 17,647                                          94



 The increase in numbers in the most recent week looks very ominous.  The rise everyone feared is here, but everyone around me still acts like it's over.

Cases have skyrocketed.  The most recent week is about three times greater than three weeks ago.  Deaths have not.  Why?  We have to be careful not to presume too much.  It could be that hospitals and doctors have learned more and are getting better at mitigating the worst.  It could be that younger people are getting COVID-19 in larger numbers, and have a better survival rate.  It could just be a lagging indicator- it takes two to three weeks to see the full effect from current cases.  We don't know.  Only time will tell.
And then came the Fourth of July Weekend.  A massive nationwide orgy of misbehavior.  What will be the effects of that?

 I'll let you know in two to three weeks.

The verdict is in.  Cases are rising in most states, especially in the South and Sunbelt.  

The President has suggested that the way to beat this is to simply stop testing.

So, the major question is...

Why do I still have friends who support Bunker Boy?  For me, this still remains the central question of our times.


Orginal Georgia by the Numbers comments in black.  Georgia by the Numbers #2 comments in red.  Georgia by the Numbers #3 comments in blue.

If this keeps up, I'm gonna run out of colors.