Georgia By the Numbers #5: Keeping Your Distance 45

I'm going back to basic black for this, but with a bold type.  Three weeks from now I may have to go black bold in italic.

People are wondering.

Are we anywhere back to normal?

Honestly, I think only the most delusional are asking that now.  Although, many are acting like this is over, or buying into the conspiracy theories that the death of 171,000 is just overblown.

Update:  Where have we gone in the three weeks since I Posted the fourth Georgia by the numbers?

People are starting to press.  No one in my area is pressing anymore.  THEY'RE JUST GOING OUT - FEW MASKS, LITTLE TO NO SOCIAL DISATANCING.  Some businesses (e.g., Kroger, Wally World) have gone to masks required status, and in those places, I see many more masks BUT NOT COMPLETE COMPLIANCE.  That simple compliance, that minor bit of human decency, is further fading away as people realize that, in most stores, the requirement is toothless - they won't be sanctioned or sent out of the store for not wearing one.

When can we go to a restaurant?  Based on the crowds I see, people are going NOW.  This remains true.  

When can we be in a play, or attend one?  WACT put on a play in for late June.  I don't know any right now, although one WACT has scheduled in the Fall is one I'd very much like to be in, but won't in the current environment.  WACT had tryouts this week for a new play, one I wanted to be in.  I was asked to participate, but I had to turn it down.  They were able to cast it.

 When can we go to church? Some, but not all, have opened up. My church is still closed, but it is now the exception rather than the rule.  We have established extensive guidelines for what we do when we come back. As of now, our standards are in place, and we have prepared for re-opening, but have not gone beyond online services yet.  Our church added a virtual coffee hour (a zoomy thing), that was very nice, a good way for people to talk to each other.  It wasn't my cup of...coffee...but I did respect its value.

When can we hold in-person meetings of our favorite clubs and organizations? I'm not sure about this one - I think most people are still doing ZOOM.  Given the scheduled Trump rally Saturday, I'm glad I don't live in Tulsa.  Not to mention his indoor performance in an Arizona mega-church and his race-baiting speech at Mt. Rushmore in South Dakota. HOWEVER, we're close to Jacksonville and the scheduled Republican convention.  Oy.  There is now some queasiness bout holding that convention as Florida's numbers have skyrocketed.  At a minimum, masks may be required, and that does not sit well with Captain Bone Spurs.  Stunningly, the narcissist-in-chief has backed down and canceled the Jacksonville portion of the Republican convention.  Do you know how bad things must be for him to do that?  Well, apparently still not bad enough to stop him from pushing schools to re-open.  Opening night of the Democratic Convention was actually quite good - highly polished and there were some excellent speeches - it may be the future of conventions, even after the COVID-19 era.

Some of these and related questions have been answered by Governor Kemp - sure!  Go ahead and do it!  After all, things are getting better here in Georgia!  Kemp has a few common-sense rules, but they are widely ignored.  Lately, Secretary of State who Referee-ed his way to becoming Governor Kemp, has made pro-mask noses. Still, there is no mandate to require them, as the culture war cry continues to howl - I HAVE THE PERSONAL LIBERTY TO RISK MAKING YOU SICK!  MY PERSONAL LIBERTY TRUMPS (!) PUBLIC HEALTH!!!  Nothing's changed here except Kemp suing the Mayor of Atlanta for daring to have a mask-required policy.  This week, Kemp dropped his lawsuit against Atlanta. 

Kemp has his hands full just managing the opening of schools.  Yes, many schools in the state have reopened, or are re-opening soon. That is not going well.  Some schools have had to close back down already.  Others are trying to bull through, and it is not pretty.

Well...

Have we had 14 days of declining numbers, as the CDC suggests?

All I can go by is the Georgia Dept of Health numbers, updated three times a day.  Honestly, they may not be the most trustworthy numbers.  There have been press reports that suggest that Georgia and Florida have been manipulating and/or suppressing data to make their states look like they're recovering.

That may be true, but let's just take the Georgia Department of Health numbers and see what the state itself is reporting.

I've looked at seven-day accumulations, starting with May 5th, in two categories, confirmed cases and the number of deaths.  Results are summarized below -


                                                   Confirmed Cases                    Confirmed Deaths

May 5 - 11                                       4,565                                          198

May 12 - 18                                     4,281                                          205

May 19 - 25                                     5,117                                          199

May 26th - June 1st               4,499                                       241

June 2nd - June 8th             4,598                                        119

June 9th - June 15th             5,917                                        286  
             
June 16th - June 22nd         7,514                                        154

June 23rd - June 29th       13,489                                       136

June 30th - July 6th           17,647                                         94

July 7th - July 13th                 23,505                                        148

July 14th - July 20th               25,006                                        150

July 21st - July 27th               25,268                                         333 

July 28th - August 3rd           24,952                                         333

August 4th - August 10th       23,590                                        387

August 11th - August 18th     19,836                                        498 


 The increase in numbers in the most recent week looks very ominous.  The rise everyone feared is here, but everyone around me still acts like it's over.  The numbers keep rising, and some around are beginning to wonder, but many still spout conspiracy theories.

Cases have skyrocketed.  The most recent week is about three times greater than three weeks ago.  Deaths have not.  Why?  We have to be careful not to presume too much.  It could be that hospitals and doctors have learned more and are getting better at mitigating the worst.  It could be that younger people are getting COVID-19 in more significant numbers, and have a better survival rate.  It could just be a lagging indicator- it takes two to three weeks to see the full effect from current cases.  We don't know.  Only time will tell.

I am very sorry to report that time has told.  Deaths are rising.  I wish it was otherwise.  

As you can see by the most recent three weeks, weekly numbers of COVID-19 cases are declining.  Part of that is a good thing.  The numbers of tests being administered are declining, although the positivity rate is still high.  The number of deaths continues to rise, sadly, demonstrating that it is a lagging indicator.  Hopefully, the decline of cases is real, but....

And then came the opening of school.  We're still early on in knowing the full effects of that.  It's not that schools can't be opened.  It's that they can't be opened in the way we're doing it.  I would not send my kid to school if masks were not required.  That's the bottom line minimum.  And we're not doing that.

I'll let you know in two to three weeks.  

The verdict is in.  Cases are rising in most states, especially in the South and Sunbelt.  And continue to, with Florida leading the deadly parade.

The President has suggested that the way to beat this is to simply stop testing.

So, the major question is...

Why do I still have friends who support Bunker Boy?  For me, this still remains the central question of our times.  I am not comforted by the polls showing Biden with a double-digit lead.  I honestly feel, with all my heart and soul, that there should be no one left supporting Trump.  NO ONE.  ABSOLUTELY FRIGGIN' NO ONE.

Georgia by the numbers #1 comments in regular black.  Numbers #2 comments in red.  Georgia by the Numbers #3 comments in blue.  Georgia by the Numbers #4 in...whatever this color is...brown, purple, I can't tell.  Georgia by the Numbers #5 in bold black.