Political Predictions You'll Hear Nowhere Else

And based on my blog's incredible level of visits, followers and comments, you probably won't hear about them here either. But if you've read this far you might as well slog through the rest of it.



The Republicans will gain seats in the house of Representatives! Wow, that's bold! But not in numbers sufficient enough to gain control. I predict that they will gain 18 to 23 seats. Enough to become more obnoxious, but not enough to wrest control from the Democrats and Speaker Pelosi. And since the House is a majority-rule body, we'll just have to listen to Boehner's orange hued, powerless temper tantrums. But won't that make it harder for Pelosi to win votes? NO! Because the losses the Democrats experience will be almost exclusively Blue Dog Democrats who vote most of the time like Republicans anyways. Progressive majority holds in the house, at almost it's current level of strength.



The Republicans will gain seats in the Senate! My prediction is that they will gain two to four seats. The Democrats remain in theoretical control of the Senate, but there, because of filibuster and other arcane rules, the minority will still frustrate the will of the people. At least one or two of the lunatic fringe Tea Party (whatever the hell that really is) candidates will win. That means if progressives really want something, they're going to have to go balls to the wall to fight for it. And I mean US, those in the voting populace, not the Senators. Like FDR said, (paraphrasing), "You want me to do something? Make me!"



You won't here this prediction anywhere else, at least until we get very close to the election. All the mainstream media right now is nattering about the coming Republican Tsunami. I think they're wrong. I think things will still be muddied after the election. It will clear up two things. First, it is possible to go too far nutball right in this country - the fight for the soul of the republican Party will continue into 2012. Second, the Blue Dogs are going down much harder than Democrats in general. Think about it. If you're a conservative (regular style -not extra crunchy lunatic teabag style) and you have a choice between a Democrat who says he's a conservative or a Republican who IS a conservative, who are you gonna pick?

That's the good news. The bad news is that the extremist right is not going away, and will not take defeat well. I fear the most prophetic thing said this election cycle may be from R-Teanut Senate candidate - Nevada, who said that if they don't win the elections they may have to look to second amendment solutions. You see, most of us think the election is about management style, or the size and/or priorities of government. For these people, it's about the very soul of the nation, the last stand against the country being taken over by the "other". I fear that they are not going to go quietly into that good night. There is nothing more dangerous than a wounded animal backed into a corner with nothing left to lose.

God help us all.