I'm going to switch out and go for sheer entertainment and speculation this Saturday, and we can all pretend that we are as shallow as the mainstream media. Let's once again open up the POLITICAL SPECULATRON and predict what we think will most likely happen in the 2012. Put on your hip boots and let's go wading in the possibilities.
Who do you think will be the Republican nominee? Will President Obama select a different vice-presidential running mate? Do you think we are likely to have a strong third party run? Who will win in 2012?
Not to turn this into an argument about my choices, I'll still start off with mine. I'm beginning to think it increasingly likely that Mitt Romney will be the nominee for the Republican party. If you're the only quasi-sane one in the room, and everyone else is crazier than bat crap (except for Huntsman, who is even more tainted by pragmatic reasonableness than Romney and is simply considered The Other Mormon), you can't help but stand out a bit. The second most likely scenario is that there is no clear front runner and the Republican establishment, in a desperate bid to retain control, draft Jeb Bush. The third, the only Tea Party candidate with half a prayer, is the secessionary, let's end Social Security and Medicare, look at how many people and coyotes I've killed, Rick Perry, Governor of haven't we already tried this Texas, the state with the the form of state government that has a very weak governor system, with the legislature retaining virtually all of the control.
So the question then becomes, if the Tea Party is shut out from controlling the Republican nomination, what then will they do? These are people who are used to having their way. I think a third party run is more likely than not. I used to think this effort would be led by Sarah Palin. Now I'm not so sure. If Rick Perry is stiff-armed enough, it could be him, but I think it might more likely be Michelle Bachmann. She is much more committed to her Christian Jihadist religious vision than any political party. And right now the strongest part of the Tea Party is the old Christian right. How successful this will be is anybody's guess, but I do think this will exist in the 2012 make-up. It might get 1% of the vote. It might get 15%.
I would say the same thing about Ron Paul and the Libertarians, but I doubt it. Here's the problem with the Libertarians. Let's say there are ten million people in the country that call themselves Libertarians. If so, there are probably ten million definitions of what libertarianism is. Hard for them to get together to have much of an effect.
Another remote possibility is for a third party to coalesce around some super-rich guy like Donald Trump or Michael Bloomberg, on the presumption that they are "independent". Again, the problem with that is what is an independent? I have many who comment on my stuff claim they are independent, but believe you me, there is a difference between an Independent who calls the health care act "Obama care" or "forced health care" and one calls it "a good start" and the only truly good answer is "single-payer". They can call themselves independent until the cows come home, but they're not voting for the same people. We also have a President who is running the country as a centrist Republican, slightly to the right of Eisenhower and Nixon. Doesn't leave a lot of room on the other side.
I love Joe Biden. Yes, his mouth is a loose cannon sometimes, but his actual policy positions are pretty good. When the Afghanistan discussion was going on the White House, I wish to God that they had picked his side (reduced troops, more targeted attacks). Nevertheless, I think the political reality is that President Obama may be forced to make a change, and that change would be to Hilary Clinton. She's not as good as Biden, but she does connect with lower income voters better than the President does. So I believe there is good chance this will happen.
As far as actual results, I think the President will win, with about the same electoral college totals as the first time. His vote percentage may be less because of third parties. The bottom line is, it would be the ultimate insanity to return to the policies that put us in this ditch in the first place. And you have to trust the intelligence of the American people to figure that out.
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