Last week I reviewed the Republican candidates for President, with an eye towards determining who would be the best suited if one of them actually had to run the country. I am enough of a patriot that I want the opposition to run their best candidate available, and one pragmatic enough to not let ideology prevent him from moving the country forward. That evaluation led to the conclusion that the only one I felt comfortable with was Buddy Roehmer. Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson and Mitt Romney were worrisome but tolerable, at least in relation to the rest of the field. The rest of the candidates were very dangerous, truly a threat to humanity, and even if I felt President Obama would ream them in an election, I would never want the country to run the risk of something going horribly wrong and one of them actually winning.
But wait, there's more! I think the odds are slightly better than even that the Republican nominee won't be any of the candidates currently running. Every campaign the candidates tear at each other a bit. Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton surely roughed up each other, and John McCain tried to take advantage of it, employing attack ads that could have been written by the Clinton camp. But what the Democrats did four years ago was pattycake compared to what the accelerating madness that the Republican candidates are inflicting on each other. They are ripping to shreds each other's character and they are painting themselves into ideologically more remote corners.
They also have the problem of dealing with the Tea Party Amerika, an angry group who don't believe in political compromise. If a Romney or Huntsman win, I see that there is a great likelihood of a third party candidate. It could be Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachmann, Jim DeMint (surprise!), even Donald Trump. How strong they'll run, I don't know. They could pull away anywhere from 3 to 15%, 99% of it from Republicans.
Either a savior tries to come in late, maybe even as late as March, or they emerge as a compromise candidate in a brokered convention. The late entry may seem ridiculous in our modern politics, but it was happening rather frequently as recently as 1976. Sometimes things change, and it could change again. The most likely late entry would be Mike Huckabee.
More likely is a brokered convention. I think the Republicans have changed the rule slightly so that I don't think as many (if any) of their primaries are winner take all. That means the delegates will be more widespread than last year. McCain won some states four years ago with a tiny plurality and then won all the delegates via winner take all.
So at some point someone will step in and attempt to bridge the gap between the far right wing and the really, really, far reactionary extremist right wing. I believe that person is most likely to be Jeb Bush. He has the most appeal across a wide range of Republican groups. The fact that he is reviving the Bush name, and the Republican Party operating under the delusion that the nation was ready for a triple dip of Bush, is secondary to reuniting their own party. There is a lesser but still existent probability it could be someone else. Chris Christie or Mitch Daniel come to mind.
Anyway, I admit this is all speculatron stuff. Nevertheless, it's where I see things headed. That's my opinion. I'd love to hear yours.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Friday, December 9, 2011
The Wicked Witch's Revenge Song
PROPOSED SONG FOR THE WICKED WITCH FOR OUR PERFORMANCES OF THE WIZARD OF OZ!
In a day not long ago
When I was just a babe
Mother had four daughters in a row
Dividing Oz into witchy fours
That was the beginning of our scene
But alas, it wasn’t easy being green
And Glinda? Oh, so pretty Glinda? The fairest of them all? Whom I taught everything? My witchcraft! My spells!
Then suddenly from out of the sky:
A buffoon in a ridiculous balloon
That couldn’t possibly fly
Came crashing into Oz
They removed my Southern Sister without pause
And put this maroon in charge
Calling him the "Wonderful Wizard of Oz"
For crashing a balloon? -- Are you kidding me? Have you seen me play Quidditch on my broomstick?
Revenge, revenge,
I'll have it on them all.
No single slight will I forget.
I'll show no mercy you can bet.
They'll all get theirs the day I get
Revenge.
That dopey Lion
Who has no courage, oh foo!
I used to scare that sissy
With just a tiny little “boo!"
And Scarecrow with his lack of brains
I could set him afire
That heartless Tin thing my Eastern sister froze
I’d rust him on a liquid pyre.
Ah, but the thing that really
Drove me to a fury:
That wicked girl they call Dorothy.
She killed my sister and stole her slippers
And I’m the bad one? SHE STOLE MY SLIPPERS!
Revenge, revenge,
Oh, it will taste so sweet.
A misanthrope, yes, I might be,
An outcast of society.
Think what you like, but just give me
Revenge, revenge!
It really goes way back,
My parents hated me true--
You see, my birth surprised them.
Mom and Dad were Navy Blue.
Glinda smelled of poppies
And a witless Wizard whom Oz goes “all hail!”
I'll show you Lion, and Scarecrow and Tin Thing
And Dorothy Cursed Gale.
Revenge, revenge,
That's all I live for now.
I'll make them wince and cringe and cry.
I'll spit in their collective eye
I'll have one thing before I die --
And I'll have it by destroying that Kansan symbol of goodness - Dorothy Gale!
(Wickedly accelerating witchy laughter)
Reeeee - Venge!
In a day not long ago
When I was just a babe
Mother had four daughters in a row
Dividing Oz into witchy fours
That was the beginning of our scene
But alas, it wasn’t easy being green
And Glinda? Oh, so pretty Glinda? The fairest of them all? Whom I taught everything? My witchcraft! My spells!
Then suddenly from out of the sky:
A buffoon in a ridiculous balloon
That couldn’t possibly fly
Came crashing into Oz
They removed my Southern Sister without pause
And put this maroon in charge
Calling him the "Wonderful Wizard of Oz"
For crashing a balloon? -- Are you kidding me? Have you seen me play Quidditch on my broomstick?
Revenge, revenge,
I'll have it on them all.
No single slight will I forget.
I'll show no mercy you can bet.
They'll all get theirs the day I get
Revenge.
That dopey Lion
Who has no courage, oh foo!
I used to scare that sissy
With just a tiny little “boo!"
And Scarecrow with his lack of brains
I could set him afire
That heartless Tin thing my Eastern sister froze
I’d rust him on a liquid pyre.
Ah, but the thing that really
Drove me to a fury:
That wicked girl they call Dorothy.
She killed my sister and stole her slippers
And I’m the bad one? SHE STOLE MY SLIPPERS!
Revenge, revenge,
Oh, it will taste so sweet.
A misanthrope, yes, I might be,
An outcast of society.
Think what you like, but just give me
Revenge, revenge!
It really goes way back,
My parents hated me true--
You see, my birth surprised them.
Mom and Dad were Navy Blue.
Glinda smelled of poppies
And a witless Wizard whom Oz goes “all hail!”
I'll show you Lion, and Scarecrow and Tin Thing
And Dorothy Cursed Gale.
Revenge, revenge,
That's all I live for now.
I'll make them wince and cringe and cry.
I'll spit in their collective eye
I'll have one thing before I die --
And I'll have it by destroying that Kansan symbol of goodness - Dorothy Gale!
(Wickedly accelerating witchy laughter)
Reeeee - Venge!
Saturday Political Soap Box 16
Amazingly, we are only about a month away from the Iowa caucus, and Republicans are still changing frontrunners as quickly as Scarlet O'Hara's dance card at a cotillion. As a very committed liberal/progressive, you would think that I would be overjoyed if one of the weaker candidates would win the nomination, thereby giving President Obama a clearer path to re-election. But I care about this country too damn much to think that way. I want to feel like if everything goes wrong and a Republican should win, it would be at least the best qualified person they could present. In that regards, using my freakish statistical/accounting bent, I would like to handicap the Republican field as follows:
Mitt Romney: In some ways, has has shown through his career a pragmatic ability to shift positions that might serve as President, but does him little good with primary voters. I am like everyone else - I have little idea where he really stands on things OTHER than to say he is a corporate Republican who will stand first and foremost with big business and the wealthy. Ability to win Republican Nomination: 5, Ability to win General Election: 6, Charisma/Leadership: 3, Ability to work across the aisle: 7, Identification with average person: 2, Experience: 7, Corruption Free: 6. Total Score: 36.
Newt Gingrich: I don't think I've ever met a more repulsive human being. Literally, because I actually met him once. I give him credit for having more intelligence than some, but he is almost single-handedly responsible for the nasty tone of modern American politics. Ability to win Republican nomination: 4, Ability to win General Election: 1, Charisma/Leadership: 2, Ability to work across the aisle: 1, Identification with average person: 3, Experience: 7, Corruption Free: 0. Total Score: 18.
Michelle Bachmann: gives a whole new meaning to insanity. Has some foreign policy credentials, but it's like one of those kids who took math but wasn't really listening. Things add up very strangely. I do not want her anywhere near the nuclear button. Ability to win Republican nomination: 2, Ability to win General Election: 1, Charisma/Leadership: 3, Ability to work across the aisle: 0, Identification with average person: 5, Experience: 3, Corruption Free: 4. Total Score: 18.
Ric Perry: His lack of knowledge is breathtaking. I guess the standards to be Governor of Texas are pretty low. .....wait, we already found that out the hard way, What do you say about a candidate the Bush people call stupid? Ability to win Republican nomination: 4, Ability to win General Election: 3, Charisma/Leadership: 3, Ability to work across the aisle: 0, Identification with average person: 5, Experience: 2, Corruption Free: 1. Total Score: 18.
Ron Paul: He has positions designed to attract and offend people all over the political spectrum. Unfortunately, he has demonstrated little ability to compromise or work with others. I don't like purist philosophies of any kind, and it doesn't help that I think of Libertarianism as the philosophy of spoiled, narcissistic brats. Ability to win Republican nomination: 2, Ability to win General Election: 1, Charisma/Leadership: 5, Ability to work across the aisle: 0, Identification with average person: 3, Experience: 3, Corruption Free: 7. Total Score: 21.
Herman Cain: This shell of a man may be withdrawing as I write this, or very soon. so I won't waste much time on this womanizing charlatan. Ability to win Republican nomination: 0, Ability to win General Election: 0, Charisma/Leadership: 5, Ability to work across the aisle: 0, Identification with average person: 3, Experience: 0, corruption Free: 1. Total Score: 9.
Ric Santorum: Anti-gay bigot, wants to ban most common forms of birth control, right-wing extremist. Ability to win Republican nomination: 3, Ability to win General Election: 1, Charisma/Leadership: 3, Ability to work across the aisle: 0, Identification with average person: 4, Experience: 3, Corruption Free: 5. Total Score: 19.
Jon Huntsman: Republicans won't properly look at him because he worked with the Obama administration as ambassador to China, and he is yet another Mormon. Yet if they look closely at his record, they will find he is very conservative, without the flip-flopping record that Mitt and Newt have. Ability to win Republican nomination: 2, Ability to win General Election: 6, Charisma/Leadership: 5, Ability to work across the aisle: 7, Identification with average person: 4, Experience: 5, Corruption Free: 9. Total Score: 38.
Gary Johnson: very few know who this two-term governor of New Mexico is, because the Republican establishment has effectively shut him out. Basically, a more toned down libertarian version of Ron Paul, more social libertarian with a greater ability to compromise and reason. Ability to win Republican nomination: 0, Ability to win General Election: 4, Charisma/Leadership: 5, Ability to work across the aisle: 5, Identification with average person: 4, Experience: 6, Corruption Free: 9. Total Score: 33.
Buddy Roehmer: even more credentialed than Gary Johnson, two-tern Governor of Louisiana, Congressman, and very successful businessman, Republican establishment has also effectively shut him out. Spends most of his time railing at the big money influence in our politics, and emphasizes very heavily being able to work across the aisle. Ability to win Republican nomination: 0, Ability to win General Election: 6, Charisma/Leadership: 7, Ability to work across the aisle: 9, Identification with average person: 8, Experience: 8, Corruption Free: 9. Total Score: 47.
That's my summary of who is actually running. I'll deal with those who are not running next week. And I do think there is a better than 50/50 shot that the nominee will be somebody other than this group. Any score below 20 scares me to freaking death. Any score below 40 has me worried. What do you all think?
Mitt Romney: In some ways, has has shown through his career a pragmatic ability to shift positions that might serve as President, but does him little good with primary voters. I am like everyone else - I have little idea where he really stands on things OTHER than to say he is a corporate Republican who will stand first and foremost with big business and the wealthy. Ability to win Republican Nomination: 5, Ability to win General Election: 6, Charisma/Leadership: 3, Ability to work across the aisle: 7, Identification with average person: 2, Experience: 7, Corruption Free: 6. Total Score: 36.
Newt Gingrich: I don't think I've ever met a more repulsive human being. Literally, because I actually met him once. I give him credit for having more intelligence than some, but he is almost single-handedly responsible for the nasty tone of modern American politics. Ability to win Republican nomination: 4, Ability to win General Election: 1, Charisma/Leadership: 2, Ability to work across the aisle: 1, Identification with average person: 3, Experience: 7, Corruption Free: 0. Total Score: 18.
Michelle Bachmann: gives a whole new meaning to insanity. Has some foreign policy credentials, but it's like one of those kids who took math but wasn't really listening. Things add up very strangely. I do not want her anywhere near the nuclear button. Ability to win Republican nomination: 2, Ability to win General Election: 1, Charisma/Leadership: 3, Ability to work across the aisle: 0, Identification with average person: 5, Experience: 3, Corruption Free: 4. Total Score: 18.
Ric Perry: His lack of knowledge is breathtaking. I guess the standards to be Governor of Texas are pretty low. .....wait, we already found that out the hard way, What do you say about a candidate the Bush people call stupid? Ability to win Republican nomination: 4, Ability to win General Election: 3, Charisma/Leadership: 3, Ability to work across the aisle: 0, Identification with average person: 5, Experience: 2, Corruption Free: 1. Total Score: 18.
Ron Paul: He has positions designed to attract and offend people all over the political spectrum. Unfortunately, he has demonstrated little ability to compromise or work with others. I don't like purist philosophies of any kind, and it doesn't help that I think of Libertarianism as the philosophy of spoiled, narcissistic brats. Ability to win Republican nomination: 2, Ability to win General Election: 1, Charisma/Leadership: 5, Ability to work across the aisle: 0, Identification with average person: 3, Experience: 3, Corruption Free: 7. Total Score: 21.
Herman Cain: This shell of a man may be withdrawing as I write this, or very soon. so I won't waste much time on this womanizing charlatan. Ability to win Republican nomination: 0, Ability to win General Election: 0, Charisma/Leadership: 5, Ability to work across the aisle: 0, Identification with average person: 3, Experience: 0, corruption Free: 1. Total Score: 9.
Ric Santorum: Anti-gay bigot, wants to ban most common forms of birth control, right-wing extremist. Ability to win Republican nomination: 3, Ability to win General Election: 1, Charisma/Leadership: 3, Ability to work across the aisle: 0, Identification with average person: 4, Experience: 3, Corruption Free: 5. Total Score: 19.
Jon Huntsman: Republicans won't properly look at him because he worked with the Obama administration as ambassador to China, and he is yet another Mormon. Yet if they look closely at his record, they will find he is very conservative, without the flip-flopping record that Mitt and Newt have. Ability to win Republican nomination: 2, Ability to win General Election: 6, Charisma/Leadership: 5, Ability to work across the aisle: 7, Identification with average person: 4, Experience: 5, Corruption Free: 9. Total Score: 38.
Gary Johnson: very few know who this two-term governor of New Mexico is, because the Republican establishment has effectively shut him out. Basically, a more toned down libertarian version of Ron Paul, more social libertarian with a greater ability to compromise and reason. Ability to win Republican nomination: 0, Ability to win General Election: 4, Charisma/Leadership: 5, Ability to work across the aisle: 5, Identification with average person: 4, Experience: 6, Corruption Free: 9. Total Score: 33.
Buddy Roehmer: even more credentialed than Gary Johnson, two-tern Governor of Louisiana, Congressman, and very successful businessman, Republican establishment has also effectively shut him out. Spends most of his time railing at the big money influence in our politics, and emphasizes very heavily being able to work across the aisle. Ability to win Republican nomination: 0, Ability to win General Election: 6, Charisma/Leadership: 7, Ability to work across the aisle: 9, Identification with average person: 8, Experience: 8, Corruption Free: 9. Total Score: 47.
That's my summary of who is actually running. I'll deal with those who are not running next week. And I do think there is a better than 50/50 shot that the nominee will be somebody other than this group. Any score below 20 scares me to freaking death. Any score below 40 has me worried. What do you all think?
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