Last week I reviewed the Republican candidates for President, with an eye towards determining who would be the best suited if one of them actually had to run the country. I am enough of a patriot that I want the opposition to run their best candidate available, and one pragmatic enough to not let ideology prevent him from moving the country forward. That evaluation led to the conclusion that the only one I felt comfortable with was Buddy Roehmer. Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson and Mitt Romney were worrisome but tolerable, at least in relation to the rest of the field. The rest of the candidates were very dangerous, truly a threat to humanity, and even if I felt President Obama would ream them in an election, I would never want the country to run the risk of something going horribly wrong and one of them actually winning.
But wait, there's more! I think the odds are slightly better than even that the Republican nominee won't be any of the candidates currently running. Every campaign the candidates tear at each other a bit. Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton surely roughed up each other, and John McCain tried to take advantage of it, employing attack ads that could have been written by the Clinton camp. But what the Democrats did four years ago was pattycake compared to what the accelerating madness that the Republican candidates are inflicting on each other. They are ripping to shreds each other's character and they are painting themselves into ideologically more remote corners.
They also have the problem of dealing with the Tea Party Amerika, an angry group who don't believe in political compromise. If a Romney or Huntsman win, I see that there is a great likelihood of a third party candidate. It could be Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachmann, Jim DeMint (surprise!), even Donald Trump. How strong they'll run, I don't know. They could pull away anywhere from 3 to 15%, 99% of it from Republicans.
Either a savior tries to come in late, maybe even as late as March, or they emerge as a compromise candidate in a brokered convention. The late entry may seem ridiculous in our modern politics, but it was happening rather frequently as recently as 1976. Sometimes things change, and it could change again. The most likely late entry would be Mike Huckabee.
More likely is a brokered convention. I think the Republicans have changed the rule slightly so that I don't think as many (if any) of their primaries are winner take all. That means the delegates will be more widespread than last year. McCain won some states four years ago with a tiny plurality and then won all the delegates via winner take all.
So at some point someone will step in and attempt to bridge the gap between the far right wing and the really, really, far reactionary extremist right wing. I believe that person is most likely to be Jeb Bush. He has the most appeal across a wide range of Republican groups. The fact that he is reviving the Bush name, and the Republican Party operating under the delusion that the nation was ready for a triple dip of Bush, is secondary to reuniting their own party. There is a lesser but still existent probability it could be someone else. Chris Christie or Mitch Daniel come to mind.
Anyway, I admit this is all speculatron stuff. Nevertheless, it's where I see things headed. That's my opinion. I'd love to hear yours.
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