The butterfly effect.
It's a concept that permeates through most time travel stories. The idea that changes, even minor ones, can have rippling effects throughout history. It was articulated most clearly in a Ray Bradbury story, A Sound of Thunder, where time travelers travel to the Jurassic Era, and upon their return find things subtly different, with the English language with different words and spellings, and someone else as President of the United States. One of the travelers discovers that he crushed a butterfly, found on his boot, and that somehow led to a cascading chain of events.
Foreign policy is like that. Often we are faced with a whole series of choices, and all of them lead to altering future history, often in ways that are unintended. The hard thing to realize is, that often inaction leads to unintended consequences as well. America's late interventions in World War I and World War II probably extended and made worse those wars. Likewise, not intervening at all might have led to horrible consequences. For example, we might all be speaking German now, at least those of us still alive after the purges.
It is clear now, that our unwarranted and unjustified intervention into Iraq has led to negative consequences that will reverberate for generations to come. Our destabilization of that country has led to the creation of ISIS, the rise in power of our adversary Iran, emboldened rebel movements in other Mideast countries, a massive debt that was off-budget and unfunded (at least until the Obama administration), and a loss of civil liberties here at home.
In Syria, we face a horrible situation that has no good answers. Even though there are many decent Syrian citizens, their political factions are all a mess, and virtually none of them hold the promise of a better Syria in the future. Right now they are in the hands of a bloody dictator, Bashar al-Assad, an Alawite Muslim, which is an offshoot of Shiar Muslims. The vast majority of Syrians are Sunni Muslims. The conflict between various Muslim groups creates terrible tensions within the country. This is exacerbated when outside countries try to sponsor one group or another within the country. Players inside Syria include us, the Chinese, the Russians Turks, Saudis, and the European Union.
If we come into the situation wrong, we risk destabilizing things even greater than they are, and empowering people that may not be friendly to the interests of the United States. As dangerous as it is, we have to be a player. Withdrawing completely may be as dangerous as over-intervention. I don't have any magic answers. In such a volatile situation, I see no advantage to boots on the ground. I do think that diplomacy and international coordination is vital.
ISIS is a monstrous organization, and needs to be defeated. It, as are many of the terrorist and/or rebel groups we hear of, more political and social than religious. Yes, many of them use Islam as a cover and excuse for their atrocities. but that only makes them more evil for their misuse of religion. They are no more Muslim than our KKK or Christian militias are even remotely Christian. We have to attack them in a way that really defeats them, and does not inspire others and increase their numbers. It's like the many headed beast Hydra - cut off one head (say, Saddam Hussein, or Al Qaeda), ten more emerge to take their place.
All of this upheaval has created one of the largest refugee movements of modern times. If this is going to be a truly international effort, than everyone needs to do their part in taking them in. I have been disgusted and ashamed of many in this country who have been fear mongering and reflecting a rabid, paranoid xenophobia over accepting a disproportionately small number of refugees - only 10,000, a pitiful number compared to the size of our country, and smaller ratio wise compared to many other countries. It's just horrifying to think how little it takes for so many in this country to turn so brutal and uncaring.
I don't know all the solutions. No matter what we do this may not turn out well. But there is some common sense things we can do, that to me, puts us on the right side of the spirit of a better world. As boring as it is to some Americans, we need to continue to be at the forefront of diplomatic efforts. We need to coordinate any military efforts with the rest of the world. And we need to be at the forefront of humanitarian efforts, including assisting with the refugees.
Yes, whatever we do steps on butterflies, and will result in changes, some good and some bad. The world has become increasingly related, and it is hard to do anything that doesn't effect us all.
Even if we can't be perfect, let us at least err on the side of doing good. Diplomacy, coordinated international force, and humanitarian outreach.
And prayer. Let's not forget prayer.
No comments:
Post a Comment