Tis' the Season to Do Speculatron: Saturday Political Soap Box 117

Your Republican frontrunner making fun of a physically handicapped reporter. What a charming man. 

We are getting into the heat of the campaign season. like it or not, so it is now the major season for the speculatron, like it or not.  Based on page views, it's more popular that some would believe or admit.  So enjoy or not.  Your call.

Let's start with the easy one.  Barring health problems or indictment, Hillary Clinton will be the nominee of the Democratic Party.  With all due apologies to the candidate whom I support, Bernie Sanders, I just don't see him winning the nomination.  I know that will upset some of my fellow Bernie supporters, but I'm just trying to keep it real. 

The field has been cleared except for Bernie Sanders and Martin O'Malley. O' Malley is just playing out the string, for whatever reason, but Bernie, win or lose,  is worth voting for. He is building a coalition of support that will help the Progressive Majority emerge in 2020. 

Hillary is not the perfect candidate by any means.  She is far too militaristic, and too close to Wall Street to really regulate Wall Street.  But she is competent and pragmatic, two characteristics essential to being a good President.

The Republicans have handed Hillary the election on a silver platter by the way they conducted the Benghazi hearings.  She endured and made them all look like the witch hunting idiots they are.  I was somewhat concerned that Hillary had the interest and stamina to run for President.  Those worries are now gone.  Thank you, Republican Party.


Now........how about the true circus?

Oy.  What a mess.

First, we have the insane division - Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina.  The "oh look, they're outsiders!" phenomenon that is careening through the Republican Party like a Miley Cyrus  ridden wrecking ball.  Carly Fiorna has faded to obscurity since the last speculatron, finally caught in a web of her own indefensible lies, and a slow realization that she wasn't a very good CEO.  Besides, I'm not sure the Republican Party wanted a woman President anyways.  Ben Carson bubbled up near the top, and then quickly bubbled back down again.  The basis of his thin resume to be President, his "personal testimony", proved to be mostly a house of lies and exaggerations.  Besides, I don't think the Republican Party wanted an African-American President anyways.

But do not lose faith in the insane division!  One from this group wilted a bit under the heat of the Ben Carson bubble, but now has reasserted himself and emerged stronger than ever.  The Trumpster has moved to the front of the Republican dumpster by asserting ever more demagogic and fascistic proposals in the wake of the Paris attacks, including the registration of all Muslim Americans, and such unthinkable gestures as cheering on the beating of a Black Lives Matter protester at  one of his rallies and, as seen in the picture above where he is mocking someone with a physical handicap.

Ladies and gentleman, Donald Trump, your Republican frontrunner.  If you support this fascist wannabe, it says as much or more about you as it does him.  God help you.

In the Right Wing of Attila the Hun Division, we have Ted Cruz and the theocrats - Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum (Rand Paul is also in this group, although he poses as a libertarian when it suits him).  Of these, only Ted Cruz has a shot.  IF the insane division fades in the polls, Ted Cruz is the next most likely to emerge.  He is the next most crazy candidate, so it is the next most logical place for the Republicans to go.  As much as I can't stand him, he is playing one of the better long term strategies I've seen since Barack Obama in '08.  He is finally moving to double digits in the polls, picking up much of Ban Carson's fleeing support. 


In the Establishment Division (but still right wing enough that they're going to try to take away your social security and health care - PAY ATTENTION PEOPLE!!!), they are in utter shambles.  Jeb Bush is fading fast, and most of the rest are not gaining traction.  This group includes Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and John Kasich.  One other from this group has had some good debates and has moved up in the polls - Marco!   ... Rubio!  (both a candidate and a pool game!)  His positions and experience is weak, but he can talk purty sometimes, and he has a better hope of attracting Latino voters than any other Republican (say winning 15% of that vote instead of 5%).

So who in the general election?  I still think the establishment Republican is most likely to win. My top most likely race would be Clinton vs. Rubio.  For Jeb Bush to get back in it, it would require the most dramatic rise in the history of modern American politics.   And ol' Jeb doesn't strike me as the one to pull that off.


My undercard would be Clinton vs. Cruz.  This would be an electoral disaster for the Republicans, but sometimes in politics, these forces just have to burn themselves out, like they did with Goldwater in 1964.  I now believe Cruz winning the nomination is almost even money with Rubio winning it.

Who will be the next President?  If it's any candidate from the Insane or Atilla/Theocratic division, Clinton will run away with it.  If it's Bush, Christie, or Rubio, she would still win, but it would be much closer, and the wrong set of circumstances (scandal, health, current events) could let the Republicans win.  Their best shot is with John Kasich as he could make gains for them in Ohio and the Midwest, but I'll state out flatly - the Republican base is not bright enough to do that. They've got their anger button on permanent lockdown mode.

Finally, if the Republicans do nominate an establishment candidate, I think there is a sixty-forty chance that Trump runs as an independent.  He's volatile and easily pissed off.  And he's one of the most dangerous men ever to run for President (see other posts, or just open your friggin' eyes).  He could get, say, as much as 30% of the vote, but that could be enough to springboard him to power.  Why not? Historically, it's worked before. Check it out.

If he runs, the 2016 election might not give anyone a majority in the electoral college, and Donald Trump, the new kingmaker, could offer himself up as Vice-Chancellor for whichever party is willing to take him.

Oops.  I don't mean Vice Chancellor.  I mean Vice President.

My bad.