Yes, Barack. I guess there really are red states and blue states.
More accurately, there is an urban/rural divide. The more city centers in your state, the more likely you are to be blue.
Take a look at our New Blue states, Georgia and Arizona. Both are largely due to the Atlanta Metro area's growth in Georgia and the Phoneix metro area in Arizona.
As the Democratic Party's wont, some are wallowing in the inability to make significant gains in the Senate and in losing a few seats in the House. The big to-do centers around the conservative/corporate Democrats' belief that it was the Progressives who destroyed the chance to retain and gain. Yeah, the seats lost in the House were all by centrist Democrats, but facts don't matter- feelings do.
The fact is that the Progressive Caucus retained and gained. The Squad is not only back, but it has also gained a few members from Progressives who won primaries and then the general.
Today's Soap Box will focus on the Senate.
It was not a divide between Progressives and Corporatists that determined the Senate outcome.
It was the Red State divide that is becoming more and more impossible to cross.
Here to wit:
Deep Red
Of the 20 states that voted 55% or greater for Trump, there are 38 Republican Senators and 2 Democratic. If you were a Republican Senator from these states and you ran in 2020, you won. It was sad and upsetting to see such disgusting examples of humanity like McConnell and Graham romp to victory, but their red states vote tribe over self-interest.
The only turnover in this group was the defeat of the outstanding Democratic Senator from Alabama, Doug Jones, in favor of a football coach who doesn't know the three branches of government and thinks World War II was fought against socialism and communism. Red states rule. Common sense drools.
This was the only turnover for the Republicans.
Deep Blue
Of the 14 states that voted 55% or greater for President-Elect Biden, there are 27 Democrats and 1 Independent who caucuses with the Democrats (that's Bernie Sanders of Vermont). In this group, there was one turnover - in Colorado, John Hickenlooper beat Republican Cory Gardner.
Medium Red
There are four medium red states - Florida, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa. They represent a significant chunk of the population. They also represent a big chunk of the Senate's red wall, with 7 Republican Senators and one lone Democrat. Sherrod Brown of Ohio is not only a Democrat but also a Progressive. Would he have won had he been up this year? Probably. Democrats need to take a lesson as to how he does it.
Light Blue
This group of nine states has had a few wander into the red in some Presidential elections but vote blue most of the time. This group has 15 Democrats (including 1 independent who caucuses with them) and 3 Republicans.
Democrats won here. The bitter exception is that Maine Senator Susan Effing Collins won reelection in Maine. That result was probably the most disappointing of the whole election. Maine has some red areas but overall is a blue state. There was a good chunk of people who voted for Biden and then voted for Susan Effing Collins.
It's the only result that defied the blue/red divide. And it may have cost the Democrats control of the Senate.
Light Red
Yeah. This is just North Carolina. And yeah, it's got two Republican Senators, with one Republican incumbent narrowly winning reelection.
New Blue
As mentioned at the top of the blog, our new blue states are Arizona and Georgia. Yes, the blue line in these states is very thin, and only time will tell how the line holds. But I believe over time, demographics will out, and they will get deeper blue.
Arizona had the other Democratic turnover and now has two Democratic Senators. Georgia has two Republican Senators (and they are all-star gems of corruption and Trumpism), BUT both did not win outright and will be in runoffs with their Democratic opponents on January 5th.
I ain't gonna kid you. Democrats have had a grim modern history in state runoffs, and both sides are going to be on high alert. I can only pray. The Senate is 50 to 48 currently, and whether McConnell remains in charge hangs in the balance.
The Bottom Line
We have 25 red states and 25 blue states, and there are now only six states with split representation (one Democrat and one Republican). That means we have a set starting point of a 50/50 split. We may see closely split Senates for the foreseeable future. It's going to be very difficult to command the type of majority needed to get stuff done, particularly with the filibuster.
The 25 blue states represent 57% of the US population. Once again, Republicans are boosted by electoral divides that benefit them and allow the minority to have outsize representation.
So, the bottom line is that Democrats running as Republican Lite will do them no good whatsoever. In red states, they will pick a real Republican over a pretend Republican EVERY TIME.
The only choice is to be bold Democrats, marshall your vote, and run everywhere. It's no shame proclaiming your ideals and not winning. At least the red states are being exposed to the Progressive message, and in time, some will shift blue.
Demographically, I feel that Texas and North Carolina will turn blue over time. When that happens, Republicans will lose all grip on power. There are no states waiting in the wings who will turn consistently red.
Study Sherrod Brown of Ohio. Study what Stacy Abrams and allies did in Georgia.
We can do this.
Time is on our side.*
*except with climate change. Every delay there gets us more and more screwed.
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