A Wednesday Wandering Mishmash

 

Well, it's been a while since I've done one of these.   One of the most important things to me in writing is consistency in schedule, and I have not been able to attain that.  How I get around in the morning varies from day to day.

When I first started writing the blog, nigh on ten years ago, I wasn't walking in the mornings.  It was the first thing I did before anything else.  That's not true anymore.  I get up and walk with Cocoa Bear.  After that, things differ wildly.  Sometimes I'm gearing up to go to work.  Sometimes it's to go to the church for my church treasury position.  Sometimes I have other errands to run.  And sometimes I'm just looking aghast at the news, wondering if whatever fresh Trumpian horror I'm witnessing will be the thing that finally causes the Trumpeteers to turn on him.

I'll try to get better.  I'm trying to restructure, especially to get back to more fiction writing.  My bestseller*, History of the Trap, deserves a sequel, and I have been working on that, but not as much as I should.  I'm slowly turning into George RR Martin.  But I won't give up.  I'll do my best to refocus.

Personal Health

I'm doing ok.  My diet is not where it should be, but I've kept up with exercise, and my vitals are pretty good.  Both my blood pressure and blood glucose are pretty stable, at least by my personal standards.

I would rate my exposure risk to COVID-19 as reasonably low.  My work uses some caution, mask-wearing is common, and interaction is minimal. Alison is careful, but she does work for a school system that is back in session, and troublingly, they do not require students or staff to wear masks.  Alison works at the Board office, where there is not as much exposure, and she is good about wearing a mask and social distancing.  Benjamin is at college, and they seem to be taking it more seriously than some of our other learning institutions.

Democratic Convention

I haven't watched it all, but what I have seen has been pretty sweet.  This virtual convention has parts that play on TV better than an in-person convention.  The roll call, where each delegation announces their vote total in their home state or territory, was really kind of nice.  I love the roll call votes, although it has been a very long time since there has been any suspense.  

Whatchu reading and watching, Tom?

Recently finished Leadership: In Turbulent Times by Doris Kearns Godwin.  It was a great analysis of the leadership of four of our Presidents in time of crisis and is the center of my most recent Saturday Political Soap Box.  

Currently, I am reading The Black Ice, the second of Michael Connelly's Bosch novels, about a homicide detective in the Los Angeles area.  I have read a number of these (some out of chronological order), and I am drawn to the character and writing style.  

I am watching the second season of Krypton on DC Universe.  I am a huge fan of Superman, but not always of stories set on Krypton.  DC Universe is probably the streaming app I use most.  I'm also watching the old Wonder Woman series featuring Lynda Carter.  DC Universe also has a lot of digital comics, and I love reading those - have read Batgirl, Batman Adventures, and Harley Quinn.  I'm not reading as much Superman online, because I've bought most of those as they came out, and have purchased less Batman over the years.

Alison and I are watching Truth Be Told on Apple + TV, starring a pretty stellar cast led by Octavia Spencer.  She is a podcaster investigating a compelling case, and both Alison and I are a little irritated at the conclusions she jumps to, airing damaging information that hurts people's lives.  She should wait until she has the whole story, but for some reason, she doesn't listen to Alison and me.

Well, I could wander on and on, but I should save some writing time for The History of the Trap Volume 2: Restoration, Rebellion, and Revolution.

I'm only in the restoration part.

Wanderlingly yours,

T. M. Strait

Georgia By the Numbers #5: Keeping Your Distance 45

I'm going back to basic black for this, but with a bold type.  Three weeks from now I may have to go black bold in italic.

People are wondering.

Are we anywhere back to normal?

Honestly, I think only the most delusional are asking that now.  Although, many are acting like this is over, or buying into the conspiracy theories that the death of 171,000 is just overblown.

Update:  Where have we gone in the three weeks since I Posted the fourth Georgia by the numbers?

People are starting to press.  No one in my area is pressing anymore.  THEY'RE JUST GOING OUT - FEW MASKS, LITTLE TO NO SOCIAL DISATANCING.  Some businesses (e.g., Kroger, Wally World) have gone to masks required status, and in those places, I see many more masks BUT NOT COMPLETE COMPLIANCE.  That simple compliance, that minor bit of human decency, is further fading away as people realize that, in most stores, the requirement is toothless - they won't be sanctioned or sent out of the store for not wearing one.

When can we go to a restaurant?  Based on the crowds I see, people are going NOW.  This remains true.  

When can we be in a play, or attend one?  WACT put on a play in for late June.  I don't know any right now, although one WACT has scheduled in the Fall is one I'd very much like to be in, but won't in the current environment.  WACT had tryouts this week for a new play, one I wanted to be in.  I was asked to participate, but I had to turn it down.  They were able to cast it.

 When can we go to church? Some, but not all, have opened up. My church is still closed, but it is now the exception rather than the rule.  We have established extensive guidelines for what we do when we come back. As of now, our standards are in place, and we have prepared for re-opening, but have not gone beyond online services yet.  Our church added a virtual coffee hour (a zoomy thing), that was very nice, a good way for people to talk to each other.  It wasn't my cup of...coffee...but I did respect its value.

When can we hold in-person meetings of our favorite clubs and organizations? I'm not sure about this one - I think most people are still doing ZOOM.  Given the scheduled Trump rally Saturday, I'm glad I don't live in Tulsa.  Not to mention his indoor performance in an Arizona mega-church and his race-baiting speech at Mt. Rushmore in South Dakota. HOWEVER, we're close to Jacksonville and the scheduled Republican convention.  Oy.  There is now some queasiness bout holding that convention as Florida's numbers have skyrocketed.  At a minimum, masks may be required, and that does not sit well with Captain Bone Spurs.  Stunningly, the narcissist-in-chief has backed down and canceled the Jacksonville portion of the Republican convention.  Do you know how bad things must be for him to do that?  Well, apparently still not bad enough to stop him from pushing schools to re-open.  Opening night of the Democratic Convention was actually quite good - highly polished and there were some excellent speeches - it may be the future of conventions, even after the COVID-19 era.

Some of these and related questions have been answered by Governor Kemp - sure!  Go ahead and do it!  After all, things are getting better here in Georgia!  Kemp has a few common-sense rules, but they are widely ignored.  Lately, Secretary of State who Referee-ed his way to becoming Governor Kemp, has made pro-mask noses. Still, there is no mandate to require them, as the culture war cry continues to howl - I HAVE THE PERSONAL LIBERTY TO RISK MAKING YOU SICK!  MY PERSONAL LIBERTY TRUMPS (!) PUBLIC HEALTH!!!  Nothing's changed here except Kemp suing the Mayor of Atlanta for daring to have a mask-required policy.  This week, Kemp dropped his lawsuit against Atlanta. 

Kemp has his hands full just managing the opening of schools.  Yes, many schools in the state have reopened, or are re-opening soon. That is not going well.  Some schools have had to close back down already.  Others are trying to bull through, and it is not pretty.

Well...

Have we had 14 days of declining numbers, as the CDC suggests?

All I can go by is the Georgia Dept of Health numbers, updated three times a day.  Honestly, they may not be the most trustworthy numbers.  There have been press reports that suggest that Georgia and Florida have been manipulating and/or suppressing data to make their states look like they're recovering.

That may be true, but let's just take the Georgia Department of Health numbers and see what the state itself is reporting.

I've looked at seven-day accumulations, starting with May 5th, in two categories, confirmed cases and the number of deaths.  Results are summarized below -


                                                   Confirmed Cases                    Confirmed Deaths

May 5 - 11                                       4,565                                          198

May 12 - 18                                     4,281                                          205

May 19 - 25                                     5,117                                          199

May 26th - June 1st               4,499                                       241

June 2nd - June 8th             4,598                                        119

June 9th - June 15th             5,917                                        286  
             
June 16th - June 22nd         7,514                                        154

June 23rd - June 29th       13,489                                       136

June 30th - July 6th           17,647                                         94

July 7th - July 13th                 23,505                                        148

July 14th - July 20th               25,006                                        150

July 21st - July 27th               25,268                                         333 

July 28th - August 3rd           24,952                                         333

August 4th - August 10th       23,590                                        387

August 11th - August 18th     19,836                                        498 


 The increase in numbers in the most recent week looks very ominous.  The rise everyone feared is here, but everyone around me still acts like it's over.  The numbers keep rising, and some around are beginning to wonder, but many still spout conspiracy theories.

Cases have skyrocketed.  The most recent week is about three times greater than three weeks ago.  Deaths have not.  Why?  We have to be careful not to presume too much.  It could be that hospitals and doctors have learned more and are getting better at mitigating the worst.  It could be that younger people are getting COVID-19 in more significant numbers, and have a better survival rate.  It could just be a lagging indicator- it takes two to three weeks to see the full effect from current cases.  We don't know.  Only time will tell.

I am very sorry to report that time has told.  Deaths are rising.  I wish it was otherwise.  

As you can see by the most recent three weeks, weekly numbers of COVID-19 cases are declining.  Part of that is a good thing.  The numbers of tests being administered are declining, although the positivity rate is still high.  The number of deaths continues to rise, sadly, demonstrating that it is a lagging indicator.  Hopefully, the decline of cases is real, but....

And then came the opening of school.  We're still early on in knowing the full effects of that.  It's not that schools can't be opened.  It's that they can't be opened in the way we're doing it.  I would not send my kid to school if masks were not required.  That's the bottom line minimum.  And we're not doing that.

I'll let you know in two to three weeks.  

The verdict is in.  Cases are rising in most states, especially in the South and Sunbelt.  And continue to, with Florida leading the deadly parade.

The President has suggested that the way to beat this is to simply stop testing.

So, the major question is...

Why do I still have friends who support Bunker Boy?  For me, this still remains the central question of our times.  I am not comforted by the polls showing Biden with a double-digit lead.  I honestly feel, with all my heart and soul, that there should be no one left supporting Trump.  NO ONE.  ABSOLUTELY FRIGGIN' NO ONE.

Georgia by the numbers #1 comments in regular black.  Numbers #2 comments in red.  Georgia by the Numbers #3 comments in blue.  Georgia by the Numbers #4 in...whatever this color is...brown, purple, I can't tell.  Georgia by the Numbers #5 in bold black.

   

The Leadership We Need: Saturday Political Soap Box 247

 

Not too much has changed for me during the COVID-19 era.  I work only a limited number of hours, but I've been semi-retired for three years now, so that's not an abrupt change.  I stay home a lot, but I wasn't much of a gad-about before.  We had Benjamin home from college from March through early August, but we have a natural, easygoing home life, so that wasn't too much of a challenge.  I don't miss going to meetings. I do miss community theatre, but not as much as I thought I might.

One of the minor effects is that I have had a bit more time to fire up my love of history.  I have read several history books and listened to podcasts, much of it focused on the post Civil War era.  Enough to know what a POS Andrew Johnson was, and what a historical mistake it may have been not to convict him in the impeachment trial.

But I have read about other stuff as well.  Including the excellent Leadership: In Turbulent Times by Doris Kearns Goodwin.  It examines four Presidents who served at pivotal times in US History, and how their leadership steered us through critical periods and helped us emerge a better country.  The four were Abraham Lincoln, who navigated this nation through the Civil War and kept us preserved while helping bring an end to slavery; Theodore Roosevelt, who helped check the robber barons and wealthy interests from further increasing the income gap by anti-trust measures and mediating the early rise of unions; Franklin Delano Roosevelt, whose courage and leadership helped see us through the Great Depression and World War II - you know, the war that was ended by the 1917 Pandemic*; and Lyndon Baynes Johnson, who brought about the civil rights legislation that the country had been needing for decades.

These men were great leaders for a number of reasons, as outlined by Ms. Goodwin.  They read or listened to others, intellectually absorbing the range of options they had, and choosing those needed in the best interests of the nation, particularly in moving the nation forward in achieving the best of its ideals.  They were capable of working with others and making the adjustments needed to make things work.  They had goals, but they were not ideologues.  They were not so full of themselves that they could not listen to criticism.  They had both academic and social intelligence.

This is not to say they were perfect.  They all had flaws.  Abraham Lincoln was sometimes slow to act on his anti-slavery instincts.  Theodore Roosevelt was far too fascinated with machoism and the military. FDR tried to pack the courts.  LBJ let the Vietnam War consume all the good he otherwise achieved.

But in the end, they all helped make America a better place.  They all helped lead us through turbulent times.

Overall, America has been extremely fortunate in having the right leader at the right time. That's not always true, but it is more often than not.  I would add the miracle of Barack Obama to the list. He inherited a huge mess in early 2009 and led us to the longest economic recovery in American history.  He was gracious and kind, pragmatic, and intelligent.  

Sometimes we come up a cropper.  Some are decent men but not suited to the times, like James Buchanan and Herbert Hoover.  Others are true scoundrels like Andrew Jackson and Andrew Johnson.  One stands above them all as the most unsuited and dangerous President we've ever had the misfortune of slipping past the electoral college net - Donald John Trump.  

But do not despair.  Although far from perfect, I believe very strongly that we have running the best leader for our turbulent times.  And that is Joe Biden.  He may not be your first choice or the best leader for all times, but I am convinced he is the best leader for THIS time.

We are crying out for an empathetic leader, who actually gives a s--- about us, and Biden may be the most empathetic politician I've ever seen.  As important as my Progressive ideology is to me, the most important thing to have right now is not pure Progressive doctrinaire - it is the pragmatism of Joe Biden.  

He will listen to others, especially the medical expertise we need to lead us out of the COVID-19 era.  Like Lincoln, I think he will have a cabinet of rivals and will do more to pull in Republican support (as ungrateful as they may be)that will be needed to successfully negotiate us to better times.  Like Teddy, I think he will stick up for the little guy.  Like FDR, he will pragmatically try whatever works and not be overly invested in his own ego - making whatever adjustments are needed to make it better.  Like LBJ, he has the experience to work with the legislature to move forward the goals most important to us.

No, Joe Biden will not solve all our problems, or stick to the Progressive agenda I believe we so desperately need.  But he will stop fascism in its tracks. He will patch things together to help us weather these turbulent times, and bridge us to greater achievements in the future.

I have to believe this.  The American experiment is too important to surrender.  The long arc of history must be bent to justice once again.

And I believe that the team of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris can do that.

The Covid-19 School Time Waltz: Crowley Story: Keeping Your Distance 44

 

It was a prize possession.  He found it at Country Antiques almost two decades ago.  A 1940's Philco record player.  It was a little busted up, and it took him several months to get it restored.  When it was fixed up though, my could it play sweet music.

Around the same time, he added an electrical outlet to the screened-in porch.  He would set up the player on a Harvest Work Table, in the most protected spot of the porch, one where the worst storms would not get it wet.  Still, he took no chances with the record player, only setting it out when he was actually using it.

He loved that he could play music while he read and drank coffee.  He had been collecting over the years; an esoteric, electric collection, albums featuring music from many eras. This morning he put on his most cherished album, one by Australian country/folk singer, Slim Dusty.

Ronnie Smith settled into a rocking chair, one of two that he was on the porch.  He set his coffee by his chair, on a large, rectangular vintage trunk, one with a faded map of the world (circa the 1890s), careful to use the Dewey for President coaster.  He had earlier placed a second cup of coffee near the second rocker.

He picked up his current read, the latest in the Bill O'Reilly killing series, Killing Crazy Horse, fresh off the presses. Ronnie was not one of those teachers who liked to let their own scholarship slide.  He liked to keep up with the latest academic works in his field.  Ronnie teaches Civics and US History at Dizon High School.

Ronnie prided himself in making sure his students got the truth about their government and American History.  Somebody had to stand up to the liberal propaganda that even the best students found themselves exposed to in the lying "woke" media.  He made sure they knew that America was founded as a Christian nation, that the Civil War was about state's rights, that the New Deal and the Great Society created the Welfare State and the 47% living off the government's teat. In civics, just before he had to leave, he had started in his Civics class a crash course in why mail-in voting was fraudulent evil, and the only way the Democrats could beat Trump.

Not that Ronnie was working today, or any day for at least not the next two weeks, if not longer.  He tested positive. The case seemed mild, but he still would be home at least another two weeks.  It might be longer because in-person school had been suspended.  

Ronald tries to get into the new book.  He can't.  His mind was whirring too fast.  It should have worked.  School should have been okay.  But it didn't work out that way.  Not at all.

From the first day, a student tested positive.  They were promptly sent home.  The Superintendent urged students to not send their kids home if they weren't well.  Grace Scope, the biology teacher, said that wouldn't do any good; the kids were coming to school asymptomatic and no one would know they were spreading it until it was too late.  Grace wore a mask and thought everyone else should too.  She wanted all the students in her classroom to wear masks, but the administration told her she could not require that.  Ronnie didn't wear a mask, nor did his wife Matilda, a third-grade teacher at Crowley Elementary.

He tried to pick up his coffee cup, lifted it towards his face, but his hand shook and he had to put it back down.

Grace Scope.  She's a lesbian.  Everyone knew that.  Why the administration didn't do anything about it, Ronnie couldn't fathom.  Why would anyone listen to her?

Why didn't he listen to her?  Doubt filled his soul.

They said it wouldn't affect children.  They didn't say how effective they were in spreading it to others.  They didn't factor in Melissa Hartwood, a middle school girl with juvenile diabetes.  That one made state news.

How could he have been so wrong?

The number of cases in Dixon had doubled since school started.  The Covid-19 deaths had risen from 9 to 15. Not dramatic numbers, maybe, but dramatic enough if it was somebody you knew, especially if it was someone you loved.

Slim Dusty started a new song.  Ronnie couldn't take it.  He put his hands on his face, tears flowing freely.  

He glanced over at the empty rocker, barely able to see it.  The coffee cup set there, a faint trail of steam rising from it.  

Why had he set it out?  Was he losing his mind?

Slim Dusty played the song.  He thought he could handle it, but he couldn't.

Waltzing Matilda.

She had caught Covid-19 and had waltzed out of his life.

Nothing would ever be the same.

Goliath and the Golf Ball

Sitting by the Levy of Imagination

What was your favorite toy growing up?

I sure loved my James Bond Attache case, loaded with weapons, secret compartments, and coded messages.

I'll never forget my Cecil the Seasick Sea Serpent, a hand puppet with a pull string for random sayings like, "I'm coming, Beanie!"  Of course, mine was extra special because it malfunctioned with "Tastes like chicken" and said...something else.

Leading my toy brigade, however, has to be our toy showboat.  Was it mine?  Was it my sister's?  Was it a shared toy.  I don't remember, but I do know that I was mesmerized by it.  It had all the stuff to put on great shows.  The curtain would go up, and Tom Strait would light up.

Some shows were straightforward, as best as I could remember them.  But the best were the ones fired from the recesses of my fractured brain.  Heidi vs. The Cowardly Lion!  Pinocchio takes Cinderella to the Ball!

There were made up songs!  We're Off to See the Wizard Climb Every Mountain!  I Got No Strings Don't Look at my Hand!  Somewhere Over the Alps!  Well... these are just theoretical examples.  I never have been very good at remembering song lyrics, so I'm sure they were some mashed up messes.

For my sister and me, the showboat concept was not just theoretical.  A small town near us was famous for its summertime Showboat. Yes, the ol' Chesaning Showboat!

Come one!  Come all!  To the greatest show on water!

I don't know how often we went, but it was enough to inspire me, and make that toy showboat extra special!

Is it what inspires me to later take up theatre as my number one hobby?  I'm sure it was part of it.  I was an inveterate storyteller pretty much since birth, but this was an important outlet and inspiration for me. It gave me the tools to act AND make up my own stories.

Sadly, in searching for pictures of the Chesaning Showboat, I found out its time had come to an end.  Shows stopped in 2013, and in 2015, the boat was sold for $50 and dismantled.

The toy showboat has long since disappeared.  My sister and I lost interest, and my mother must have disposed of it somewhere along the line.

The showboat may be gone, but the memories are still there.  It would be nice whenever I have grandchildren, to find one of those old showboats, and share it with them.  Yeah, they'd find it very strange, but nevertheless, it will feel good to connect with the past and to fire up their imagination.

Who knows?  Maybe it will inspire a future Strait in their storytelling, and they'll get as much or more joy out of writing/acting/performing as I have!

Sit down at our make-believe levy, and marvel as the curtain to imagination rises.

It's Showboat Time!

Speculatron Foolishness in the COVID-19 Era: Saturday Political Soap Box 246

I haven't done a speculatron in a while, even with an election approaching.  It seems kind of foolish in the COVID-19 era to try to predict our political future.  It's also hard to do but look with jaw-dropped horror how low Trump can go and still garner support from anyone, anywhere.

Well, I'll give it a try, anyways.  Sometimes, my middle name is foolishness, so..here it goes - 

Who will Biden pick as his running mate?

I don't care.  There's no one on that above list, or any list I've seen who I can't get behind and enthusiastically support.  He's going to pick a woman.  And he has a plethora of good, viable candidates to pick from.

He needs to pick someone he can work with, assign responsibilities to, whose advice he can rely on, who can step in and be President at a moment's notice.

SMART MONEY:  Senator Kamala Harris of California.  She's tough and experienced, a good debater, and a practical legislator.  Her name and record, and ability to generate support, including financial is proven.

NEW MONEY:  Karen Bass, Congresswoman from California.  Not as much is as known about her as some of the others, but she was Speaker of the California State Assembly, a substantial position in a state and economy larger than most nations on Earth.  She is currently chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus.

SIDE MONEY:  Susan Rice, Former UN Ambassador, and National Security Expert.  Super intelligent, and someone who works well with Biden.

BEST MONEY:  Elizabeth Warren, Senator from Massachusetts.  There is no one in the country more qualified and better able to work as Vice President than Elizabeth or to step into the Presidency if needed.  Since dropping out, she and Biden have gotten along very well and have used her to help in policy formation.

So who it will be?  I don't know.  As far as I'm concerned, he can't go wrong.  The frontrunner is Senator Harris, but I think any of those pictured are possible.

Who will win the election?

Ok, let me get down on my hands and knees for this one.

It better be Biden.  I can't picture what this country or planet will be like if Trump continues in office.

At this point, here's my prediction:

Biden 56%, Trump 42%, Others 2%

I'm too lazy to work out the Electoral College Map right now - maybe in a later post - but in general, I think Biden will exceed 400 Electoral College votes.  His win will be larger than even Obama's were, but not quite as large as '72 Nixon (520 to 17) or '84 Reagan (523 to 13).

You would think that would be enough to make me happy.  But, no.  I am ashamed that there is anyone in this country who would consider voting for Trump.  I don't care how conservative you are, or how much you hate the "libtards." Trump is not a fit leader.  He is not a decent human being.  

Who will win the Senate?

I'd love to think a landslide of the level of what I'm expecting would be enough to pull along the Senate, but people are strange.  So I'm not sure.  Without a race by race analysis, my gut instinct is...

Democrats (including Independents who caucus with them) 52, Republicans (including whatever the hell Rand Paul is) 48.

Democrats will retain the house.  The margin may change a few votes, plus or minus, but the Democrats will retain control.

What will Trump do if he loses the election?

Here's where my opinion diverges from most others.

He may or may not try to hold onto power.  If he does, he will fail.

What he will do is resign from office, probably before Thanksgiving.  Why?  Because President Pence will then grant him what every turkey wants at Thanksgiving - a full pardon.

If he's still hounded by state or local prosecution, he might have a deluxe suite waiting for him in Moscow. 

He will invest heavily in Trump TV, broadcasting his lunacy to his small but rabid base.  He will, with his buddies (foreign and domestic) take over the OAN network (One America News Network).

He will remain an irritating but less relevant voice.

The good news is, though -

He won't be in power anymore.

And a majority of Americans will remember what it was like when he was.