Georgia By the Numbers 3: Keeping Your Distance 39

People are starting to think.


We go to a restaurant!

Update:  Where have we gone in the three weeks since I Posted the second Georgia by the numbers?

People are starting to press.  No one in my area is pressing anymore.  THEY'RE JUST GOING OUT - FEW MASKS, LITTLE TO NO SOCIAL DISATANCING.

When can we go to a restaurant?  Based on the crowds I see, people are going NOW.

When can we be in a play, or attend one?  WACT put on a play in for late June.

 When can we go to church? Some, but not all, have opened up. My church is still closed, but it is now the exception rather than the rule.  We have established extensive guidelines for what we do when we come back.

When can we hold in-person meetings of our favorite clubs and organizations? I'm not sure about this one - I think most people are still doing ZOOM.  Given the scheduled Trump rally Saturday, I'm glad I don't live in Tulsa.  Not to mention his indoor performance in an Arizona mega-church and his race-baiting speech at Mt. Rushmore in South Dakota. HOWEVER, we're close to Jacksonville and the scheduled Republican convention.  Oy.  There is now some queasiness bout holding that convention as Florida's numbers have skyrocketed.  At a minimum, masks may be required, and that does not sit well with Captain Bone Spurs.

Some of these and related questions have been answered by Governor Kemp - sure!  Go ahead and do it!  After all, things are getting better here in Georgia!  Kemp has a few common-sense rules, but they are widely ignored.  Lately, Secretary of State who Referee-ed his way to becoming Governor Kemp, has made pro-mask noses, but there is no mandate to require them, as the culture war cry continues to howl - I HAVE THE PERSONAL LIBERTY TO RISK MAKING YOU SICK!  MY PERSONAL LIBERTY TRUMPS (!) PUBLIC HEALTH!!!

Well...

Are they?

Have we had 14 days of declining numbers, as the CDC suggests?

All I can go by is the Georgia Dept of Health numbers, updated three times a day.  Honestly, they may not be the most trustworthy numbers.  There have been press reports that suggest that Georgia and Florida have been manipulating and/or suppressing data to make their states look like they're recovering.

That may be true, but let's just take the Georgia Department of Health numbers and see what the state itself is reporting.

I've looked at seven-day accumulations, starting with May 5th, in two categories, confirmed cases and the number of deaths.  Results are summarized below -


                                                   Confirmed Cases                    Confirmed Deaths

May 5 - 11                                       4,565                                          198

May 12 - 18                                     4,281                                          205

May 19 - 25                                     5,117                                          199

May 26 - June 1                              4,499                                          241

June 2 - June 8                                4,598                                          119

June 9 - June 15                              5,917                                          286  
             
June 16 - June 22                               7,514                                          154

June 23 - June 29                              13,489                                         136

June 30 - July 6                                 17,647                                          94



 The increase in numbers in the most recent week looks very ominous.  The rise everyone feared is here, but everyone around me still acts like it's over.

Cases have skyrocketed.  The most recent week is about three times greater than three weeks ago.  Deaths have not.  Why?  We have to be careful not to presume too much.  It could be that hospitals and doctors have learned more and are getting better at mitigating the worst.  It could be that younger people are getting COVID-19 in larger numbers, and have a better survival rate.  It could just be a lagging indicator- it takes two to three weeks to see the full effect from current cases.  We don't know.  Only time will tell.
And then came the Fourth of July Weekend.  A massive nationwide orgy of misbehavior.  What will be the effects of that?

 I'll let you know in two to three weeks.

The verdict is in.  Cases are rising in most states, especially in the South and Sunbelt.  

The President has suggested that the way to beat this is to simply stop testing.

So, the major question is...

Why do I still have friends who support Bunker Boy?  For me, this still remains the central question of our times.


Orginal Georgia by the Numbers comments in black.  Georgia by the Numbers #2 comments in red.  Georgia by the Numbers #3 comments in blue.

If this keeps up, I'm gonna run out of colors.