Return of the SPECULATRON! Saturday Political Soap Box 278

 A return to one of my most unasked for features - the Speculatron, where I try to predict the political future with uncanny inaccuracy!

While Prime Minister Joe Manchin tries to rule us all from his houseboat, let's take a look at what the future may hold depending on the passing of the Build Back Better  Bill, or some remnant thereof -

The entire 3.5 trillion-dollar passes intact

Yeah.  As likely as a camel passing through the eye of a needle. It would be an amazingly transformative bill, leaving us much better off.  Free community college, paid leave, extended child care credits and improved Medicare benefits, real and effective climate legislation, fairer tax rates, and on and on.   Every American life would be substantially and visibly improved.

The 2022 political result of this joyous victory?  Republicans narrowly take control of the House and the Senate.

Huh? What? Why?  Because too many Americans are short-sighted and can't look past their own nose.  The benefits will be quickly absorbed, but the negative reaction from Republicans, Trumpeteers, AND the media, both conservative AND mainstream, will drown out the effects of any progress.

A watered-down version of Build Back Better passes

Yeah, this will still have some good things, but it will be harder for most Americans to see in their everyday lives. Thanx and a hat's tip to Prime Minster Manchin and the wealthy donor's new BFF, quirky little Krysten Sinema.

I can't tell you at this point what will survive the great Manchin/Sinema Chew-Up, but the results will be decisively less effective than the original bill.

It's odd that the Progressives, who are increasing in number and legislative muscle, can still be stopped by two Corporate Democrats.  But that's where we are.  Just imagine the reverse, however.  What if two Progressive US Senators stopped a bill filled with goodies and lard for the top 10%, designed by Corporate Democrats?  The media would be up in arms!  Joe Scarborough would be expectorating so much spittle his studio would be drowning in it!

The 2022 political result of this partial victory?  Republicans decisively win control of the House and the Senate.

This one is easier to explain.  There is historical precedent. Obama watered down the bill to get us out of the recession so much that the cost was slashed, and half was given to useless tax giveaways to the rich and mega-corporations in a desperate attempt to win over Republicans (an attempt that failed spectacularly).

While it did help us out of the recession, it did it in kind of a frog-boiling way.  It was so slow that most people didn't connect it with the legislation that passed.  They were easily persuaded that it had little effect on their lives.  And in 2010, the Republicans received huge gains.

The Democrats have learned nothing, and this is the scenario most likely to be repeated.

No bill passes

The saddest thing to me about this scenario is that everyone will blame Joe Biden.  Could he have negotiated better?  Maybe, at the margins.  But ultimately, the cake is baked.  Even with reconciliation, even if the filibuster was eliminated, you are still stuck with the King of Coal Manchin and the Queen of the Lobbyists Sinema.

But the American people won't see it that way. Instead, they will see Biden as weak and ineffective and blame him entirely.  

The 2022 political result of no bill passing?  Republicans tromp with a merciless, unprecedented beat down.

Boy, aren't these conclusions sorry and sad!  Okay, maybe there's some hope if we pass the whole thing (sadly, that ship has sailed), but even if  Republicans take control, at least we'll have passed the whole thing. Moreover, we'll have laid the groundwork for a better future, one that will be difficult for the Republicans to reverse.

In a vain attempt to be a contrarian, here is the scenario that offers the most hope for Democrats in 2022  - 

Manchin and Sinema join the Republican Party

Let people see what the full effects of letting the Trumpified Republicans run the Senate look like.  It wouldn't be Democratic disarray that stopped things - it would be Republican intransigence. So we can blame government dysfunction on its true source - Republicans.

This would give Biden something to campaign against -  a full-throated wail at the Do Nothing Senate.  Give 'em Hell like Harry Truman did.

I would prefer this happen after the Build Back Better bill passes (in all its watered-down glory), but I'll take what I can get.

I'm not ashamed of it.  I'm not trying to be a Purge-aholic.  But, dang it, it's time.  It's time for a Progressive takeover of the Democratic Party.

I don't know if this will work.  There's a lot to fight - state voter suppression laws, gerrymandering, a media pretty much united against progressives.  But there's also hope - most progressive solutions poll well when they're not swamped with party labels.

Here's to hope!

Time Ticking Towards My Accounting Career's End

Two more days!

My accounting career ticks towards its conclusion.  The clock pictured above was seen on our weekend's visit to Athens and the Georgia Museum of Art.  More on that later!  I have several posts I'm planning once I have the time to properly compose them.

I'm mostly at the batting clean-up stage.  Organizing my office so it can be used by somebody else.  I have personal items that I need to take home, including gnomes and Spider-Man.  I've already discovered I have an It's A Boy! cigar from my co-worker Dean, and an It's A Girl! bubble gum cigar, which he passed out 16 and 14 years ago, respectively.

What can I say?  Over 22 years with the same employer, you tend to accumulate some things.

Do I have any regrets?  I hope the firm and the clients I worked with can make the adjustments, but honestly, I'm not in control of that anymore.  Alison has been rock solid in her support.  And I am looking forward to this stage in my life.

Do I hope to make some income with other opportunities?  That would be sweet, but it's not absolutely mandatory at this point.  I'm taking a couple of months to filter through things and see what it is I'd really like to do.

One thing I'm sure of?  Whatever it is, it won't be in accounting.  

I'm not sure everyone has fully grasped that yet.  I'm not just leaving Higginson & Paulk - I'm leaving accounting.

Not to be mean, but if you have any accounting or tax questions, please ask someone else.  I am done.  I am out.

It's time to start afresh!

 

We Interrupt This Blog for an Important Personal Announcement

 

No, I promise this announcement isn't sad, at least to me. It is personal and may not be a big deal to others, but it's a big deal to me.

As of October 28th, I am leaving my employer, Higginson & Paulk, and retiring full-time from accounting.

I've been in accounting for the last 36 years (excluding a few months break where I co-owned a bookstore).  I've been at my current employer for 22 years and about 5 months.

I am 66 years old.  I've been semi-retired for over four years.

It was just time to move on.

I confess.  I don't really like accounting, as any careful reader of this blog might be able to figure out.  I've actually been trying to figure a way out of it since I was 40.  

Why so long in it?  Because as little as I make from it, it's something I can do and contribute to the family income.  I am a true Gemini with a dual nature.  I am a dreamer, but I am also a responsible family man.

Sometimes I wish I wasn't, but I am a person who thrives on high praise. Accounting is not a profession that generates accolades (at least at my level of performance).  This reaffirmed my general low self-esteem.

I have, over the years, tried to balance this with community theatre, which, for me, can be a high praise activity.  I feed off the energy from the audience, and I am charged up by their applause.  One of the things I was grateful about accounting is that it allowed me to have most evenings free to practice and perform in plays.

I would periodically get fed up with my work in recent years, and I would ask Alison, "Can I retire from accounting now?"  She would hem and haw, and even if positive, couch it with caveats.

A few weeks ago, something happened that just made me realize that I had reached my fill mark.  I couldn't do this anymore.  I texted Alison, asking if I could leave yet, and this time she said, "Let me check the numbers." She did so at lunch and then texted me back, "Yes, Tom, Yes, you can!"

Over the next two weeks, as I presented pros and cons, she never hesitated.  She was all-in. I could leave, and we would be fine.

I composed a resignation letter to send to the firm partners.  Before I sent it, I had Alison look it over.  This was her last chance to change my mind.  She quickly approved the letter, and I then did one of the most dramatic things I've done in years - I sent it.

I'll write more later, but I'm still going into the office, and now I need to do that.

I will say that although I'm retiring from accounting, I am not retiring from life.  I have plans and dreams, and hopes.

Will I accomplish them all?  Probably not.

But I will now have the canvas to paint them on.

FALLing Behind Again

 Oh, I know.

I'm falling behind again.

This is only my fourth post in October.  And I'm not even sure of the theme of this one.

But do not despair, my tiny band of blog fans!  There is some hope on the horizon.

I have some changes coming soon that should enable me to write more.  It won't be strictly writing for The Strait-Line, but it will be writing nonetheless.

One of those changes will come about because the play is ending.  Gilligan's Island was tremendous fun, but as all plays, they are very time-consuming.  I have two more performances, tonight and tomorrow night, and then I will be able to set that aside.

If you read this before the 17th and have not come out to the play, I encourage you to do so.  It's not a deep play, but it is hilarious and spirited.  The cast is spot-on in the portrayal of their iconic characters. All are very good.  Michelle Lagoueyte as Ginger is amazing, a tour de force of singing, dancing, and comedic skills. The Skipper is the closest member of the cast to portraying how their character sounds in the TV show and is a marvel of exasperation in dealing with the goofy Gilligan, performed in all his silly glory by Micah Smith (who is also a top-notch singer).  Megan Hendley conveys Mary Ann's sweetness and spirit perfectly, and Trey Carter is terrific as the intellectual Professor.  Trey has two singing numbers that are inspired singing monologues -  how he learned all those words is very impressive to me.  And we have an alien played by Danny Godwin, who is out of this world entertaining.

Special thanks to Nikki Spivey, who plays Mrs. Howell to my Mr. Howell, and for putting up with me and my nonsense.  She is a consummate actress with great comedic timing.  It is crucial for any comedy duo to enhance and heighten each other - actions and reactions are what sell comedy, and she was the perfect person to act opposite.  

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The COVID cases in our area are starting to decline.  We're not out of the woods by any means, but we have at least passed the peak of the current wave.

Will there be another wave?  I don't know.  Vaccination rates are slowly rising.  We've had so many in our area contract COVID; they probably have at least a temporary immunity. However, that may not help them in the next wave or if the virus mutates again.

As of writing this, at least 340 people from the two counties I live and work in have died from COVID.  Our populations are not that big, about 56,000 in the two counties combined, so most of us know of a family that has been affected by this.

And yet...we still have many who poo-poo this whole thing.  I can't make sense of them.  And it breaks my heart.  The supposition is that although the people around here are very conservative politically, they are actually caring and decent on a personal and community level.  Yeah.  I'm having a harder and harder time seeing that.

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I really haven't said much about the movies and TV I watch and the books and comics I read.  We'll see.  Maybe I'll say more in the future about it.  Or maybe not.

I'll only say that we have not watched The Squid Game. And those who have seen it and are trying to tell me all the little details about it  - STOP SPOILING IT FOR ME!

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I've decided not to put an image at the top. Instead, this one is for true fans of the blog - who don't need clickbait to be brought in.

I love you all, and I promise changes are coming that should smooth out my writing efforts.

Until next time,

T. M. Strait

Barnaby Gets a Loan! Saturday Political Soap Box 277

 

Imagine, if you will, our distinguished entrepreneur.  We'll call him Barnaby Collins, proud maker of Toilet Flow, a liquid additive guaranteed to keep your toilet running smooth.

Barnaby is fortunate enough to get a TWENTY MILLION DOLLAR loan.

What should he do with his loan?

Scenario #1

Barnaby buys him and his family members (all who "work" for the Bizness) brand-new HUMVEES!  He renovates the front office with fancy walnut desks and state-of-the-art computers. Next, he takes out some of the money for a personal loan that, yeah, sure, he'll pay back to the company...someday.  He wines and dines his favorite clients - ones who are already his buddies and already committed to doing business with him. Finally, he takes some of the money and invests it overseas, and places some in offshore accounts.

He does not buy equipment.  He does not improve pay and conditions for the people who work for him.  He does not improve his supply chain.  He does not advertise his product.  He does not do research to make his product and keep up with a competitive market.

When the loan payments come due, he has not improved his bottom line. Instead, he hasn't earned the additional money to cover the loan cost.

Barnaby is screwed.

Scenario #2

Barnaby does not spend on himself. Instead, he spends to make his product better, buying state of the art equipment.  He assures himself of a better, more motivated workforce by increasing their pay and benefits.  He does wise, targeted advertising.  He improves his supply chain.

The loan payments come due.  But this time, Barnaby has increased his bottom line, sufficient to cover the loan costs and have PLENTY of cash left over!

Which scenario do you think Barnaby should follow?

This is not theoretical.  As a CPA, I have seen these scenarios play out.  And trust me, there is a difference between INVESTMENT and WILD SPENDING.

The physical infrastructure bill, the one even many Republicans like, and the human infrastructure bill, Build Back Better, are vital investments that will pay back in the future growth and stability of this country. We should not be afraid of these bills because the return on investment will be immense.  It will return its investment, as businesses have the physical and human infrastructure improvements to make their jobs easier and more lucrative. 

Imagine being able to move your goods on state-of-the-art transportation systems!  

Imagine a happier, more secure worker with money to buy the products you make!

Imagine not having to deal with the increasing costs of coping with climate change!

No, these bills are not sufficiently funded to solve all our problems (thank you, Manchin and Sinema).  But they will help.  They will put us in the right direction.

And if you're worried about the cost, you're worried about the wrong thing.  This is not Scenario #1.  This is not Barnaby out scooping up Humvees.

Oh, you deficit hawks!

Where were you when we cut taxes for the wealthy and large corporations, to the point that a secretary or factory worker paid a more significant percentage of their money in taxes than they did?  And what did they do?  They bought back their own stock, they leveraged, they hoarded, they took it overseas.  They did everything except make this country better.

Where were you when they kept increasing the military budget? So much of the money went to private contractors, building things that really don't enhance our security, even projects that the Pentagon didn't ask for or recommend.  For the most part, it goes to THINGS, and not soldiers.

Where you were when they kept extending corporate welfare?  Breaks upon breaks where wealthy corporations not only pay no tax, they get huge REFUNDS!  Corporate welfare dwarfs human welfare.  And yet, no one talks about it.

Where were you when the Fed pours trillions into the coffers of well-off corporations and banks, and none of the money counts as debt?

But when we try to improve the conditions for workers in this country, these very same people who put up with what I would call Scenario #1 spending, all of a sudden get their knickers in a wad and scream, "We can't spend money to help people?  We don't have that money!  Why, we're in DEBT!  Didn't you know that?"

Yeah, I know that. But, unfortunately, we're in debt because of Scenario #1 spending, which offers little or no return on investment.

In the end, I hope our INVESTMENT HAWKS win out over our SCENARIO #1 PRETEND DEFICIT HAWKS.

Which one are you?

Dark Steps Across a Shadowed Land

 I went out today

Headed down the way

Dark steps across a shadowed land

Track marks left in crimson sand

Treasure me here

Forget me there

I can no longer meet you

I can no longer greet you

The town is a buzz

The people are scuzz

They spread their poison with glee

They know not what  I see

Maybe it was too soon

It's still the time of the loon

Everyone's in their maskless glory

Spreading their germ-filled story

They're not ready

Life's not steady

I don't want to live in fear

But I am surrounded by madness here

I finish my roam

I head back home

Across the burning sands I tread

Leaving where sanity has fled

What about next week

Is that too soon to seek

Will it have played out by then

Or will it still be too early for zen

Too soon

Too. Soon.

So I wait 

So, I. Wait.

Just Sit Right Back and You'll Hear a Tale! Here on Gilligan's Island!

 Just sit right back and you'll hear a tale*

A tale of a fateful trip

That started from this tropic port

Aboard this tiny ship!

Five passengers set sail that day 

For a three hour tour

A three hour tour**

This is one trip you won't want to miss!

A stellar cast and crew transport you to this uncharted desert isle!  The first-rate cast brings this popular 60s comedy to life with first-rate performances.  Director Pam Fields has the uncanny ability to cast just the right person for each part (as she did in The Addams Family), and these familiar characters will come to life before your eyes!

So get your reservations and come out to the Ritz!  I encourage you to follow your personal safety protocols - it's best to be vaccinated, and it's good to wear a mask.  This area has been through a rough time, with a terrible Delta variant surge, but although not out of the woods, numbers are declining and the edge of the forest is in sight.

*At the Ritz. Just sit right back and hear the tale from your cushy seat at the Ritz. Plenty of delicious refreshments will be available!

**the above lyrics are stolen straight out from the opening song.  What you may not expect about this show is all the wonderful music and dance.  When I tried out for this play, I thought it would be mostly a straight play, with maybe a couple songs here and there. But, no, it's not - it's a full-scale musical, with fun and funny songs, filled with movement and spirit!