Return of the Speculatron!

 

I used to frequently speculate about the political future.  If you search some of my older posts, you would find regular posts that I call speculatrons, where I opine on the potential of different political outcomes.

In the ugly return of the Trump era, this has become too grim to contemplate.

How a nation could return to someone as foul as Trump is beyond anything I could conceive.  It makes it hard to look at the future when you're staring at the reality of his supreme foulness.

Consider where we're at.

His popularity now ranges between 42 and 38%.  Most of that is with the collapse of independent support.  Most Republicans are still in his camp and will stay there, regardless of the Epstein files or even economic collapse.

What is happening with ICE and the concentration camps is unconscionable.  All economic indicators are moving in the wrong direction, including unemployment, the housing market, and inflation.  The stock market has rollercoastered, but is currently in the same place it was when Biden left office. Truth is being revised, including that, gosh darn, didn't you know? Slavery wasn't so bad.  Government data is being stifled.  We won't know much about the next devastating hurricane or storm, how severely the next pandemic is affecting us, or even the job numbers will be censored and fudged.  

Foreign policy?  The lunatic is aligning with the worst dictators on the planet.  He incessantly whines about how he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize.  Now he is implying that getting one may be his ticket to heaven.  

So, despite all this, he can still get Republicans to listen to him.  And right now, they are willing to gerrymander everyone else's vote away, led by Texas.

Let me clarify.  I hate gerrymandering. Congressional districts should be drawn as independently as possible, along lines that make geographical sense.

Unfortunately, that's not the world we live in.  Recent Supreme Court decisions have opened the way to this madness.  Republicans have done and will do this without impunity, and the Democrats cannot unilaterally withdraw and let the Republicans cheat their way to control.  Even with dwindling numbers, they think they can create enough safe districts to preserve their control of the House.

Enter Gavin Newsom.  He is meeting them tit for tat.  Not only is he threatening (with the people's support) to gerrymander California in response, he is also matching Trump in rhetoric and memes.  It is making Republicans angry as hell to see Trump's own tactics used against him.

But is this the best course to challenge Trump in 2028?

My argument is that Gavin Newsom is the best choice to face Trump in ... 2024. I'm not sure that's what is needed for the future of the Democratic Party in 2028.

Governor Newsom is a strong, formidable candidate.  But he offers nothing new or distinct in public policy.  

And I know what you're going to say.  That politics are largely personality-driven.

That's true, at least for the election cycle you're in.  However, it does not permanently alter the Democratic Party.  It would largely be a party dedicated as much to its corporate and wealthy donors as to anything else.  At most, it would offer small incremental changes.

And that is not what people want, at least the large majority of the working class.  They have to see the Democratic Party as their champions, and I'm not sure any of the mainstream candidates offer that.  And that would include Buttigieg, Harris, Shapiro, and similarly profiled candidates.

You're going to have to be bold.  Medicare for all, free college tuition, increased childcare support, significantly higher minimum wage, taxing the rich.  If the Democrats do not move towards this agenda, they will fail to become the party of the future.

The common wisdom now is that the Democrats don't dare run a woman or a person of color.  That is utter bull hockey.  What is needed is unadulterated progressivism, and a rejection of big-dollar donors. What you say is more important than any perceived demographic appeal.

However, personality and charisma are also important.  I wish that Governor Tim Walz had not been tainted with the Harris loss, but I don't think he can break free of it.  I wish Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren were younger.  Usually, after having had such old Presidents, we switch to a younger one.  I'm not sure anybody who is not under 60 and also high-energy will work.

That is why I'm solidly in AOC's camp.  She is young, vibrant, charismatic, and learning more about politics and how to express them every day.  She has the right positions to appeal to the working class, those with college degrees, across the entire racial and ethnic perspective. 

Yes, the reich wing will try to vilify her.  But they'll do that to any Democrat who runs.  Hell, if it were Joe Manchin, they would attack even him for being a socialist/communist.

It's probably true. Governor Newsom could probably win the election.

But Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez can win the future.

And I'm much more interested in the future of the country than I am in any corporate Democrat.

Until next time,

T. M. Strait

AOC '28!

2024 Final Projections: Saturday Political Soapbox 299

 

This is my final 2024 projection for the 2024 election!

The above is my overly rosy projection for the Electoral College.  

My less rosy projection is Harris 328 and the fascist 210.

Something's happening, and the polls aren't always catching it. Some polls are sponsored by and skewed by one party or the other (although to be honest, this is mostly a MAGAt game). Others are misapplying lessons learned in prior elections. Pollsters always overadjust. This time they are underestimating the furor of women and the youth vote. They are overestimating MAGA-style Republicans.

This does not include the fact that many people are no longer answering their phones. Even text messages are left unanswered. I had one pollster try to message me several times. I looked up the organization polling and decided it was not legit.

Examples of a trend towards Harris - the highly reputable Iowa Poll that showed her winning Iowa by 3 points! Also interesting was the Kansas poll that showed  Harris within five points! The last time a Kansas election was within five points was in 1896! The last Democrat to win Kansas was LBJ in 1964! Heck, FDR lost Kansas in 2 out of his four races! The fascist won Kansas by 15 points in 2016 and 11 points in 2020. What kind of seismic shift must be occurring for Kansas to be almost in play?

2024 HOUSE

My house projections:

Rosy: Democrats 236 Republicans 199

Less Rosy: Democrats 226 Republicans 209

I am confident that Hakeem Jeffries will be the Speaker of the House for the 119th Congress. I'm less sure of the margins. However, I would not be surprised if the final numbers are even rosier than I suggest!

I would love to see a Congress without Boebert, MTG, and Gaetz. However, that may be difficult because they are in very red districts. Of the three, Boebert is the most vulnerable.  

2024 SENATE

My Senate projections:

Rosy: Democrats 54 Republicans 46

Less Rosy: Democrats 51 Republicans 49

These numbers are with all the Independents caucusing with whom they really belong.

The Senate is the one I'm least sure about and makes me the most queasy. Because of the seats at risk, with Democrats having to defend the most territory, the natural course of events favors the Republicans.  

If the Republicans control the Senate, it would be a disaster. No one will get confirmed, leaving hundreds of vacancies. No legislation would pass, even bipartisan legislation. And I am afraid, with the Harris administration able to get little done, the 2026 backlash will be ugly, with morons blaming Harris rather than the Republican Senate.

The Republicans that I most want gone include Cruz of Texas, Scott of Florida, and Hawley of Missouri.

I am sorry. I cannot picture a scenario where the Orange fascist wins. But if he does, I fear for the nation. I fear for the world.

The MAGA fascist movement, the Christian nationalists, the billionaire bros - they all must be stamped out. Or at least neutered.

Actuarial Speculatron: Saturday Political Soap Box 292

 

Actuaries make a lot of money. The insurance industry depends on them to evaluate their risk in making and pricing policies.

Actuaries use mathematics and statistics to measure life expectancy and the risk of insurance companies in making specific policies.

Actuaries can't know for certain about individuals - they can only make predictions about a group and statistical likelihood.

So, please, when I talk about the actuary of American politics, I'm not making predictions about any specific individual. We've had political figures whose lives have been cut unexpectedly short. We've had others who've lived a long time. Jimmy Carter may now be in hospice care but is still with us at 98. Henry Kissinger just had his 100th birthday.

In general, actuaries would agree that the older you get, the more risk you run. Some of that risk is not death but incapacitation, unable to function physically and/or mentally at a level sufficient for the tasks they are responsible for.

Yes, both Biden and Trump are falling into an area of greater actuarial risk. The odds of both being healthy enough to compete vigorously in the 2024 election is not high. Not impossible, but not high.

But there are other places where we run an increased actuarial risk. We have a number of Senators that are in the upper brackets of aging. There are 10 Senators aged 75 to 79. There are five over the age of 80. With the narrow split in the Senate (51 to 49 caucusing for the Democrats), any health crisis could unbalance the Senate.

A case in point would be 89-year-old Senator Finestein of California's recent extended bout with illness that left her unable to perform her duties for many weeks. This made it difficult to impossible for the Democrats to move ahead with judicial nominees, as her vote was crucial in moving them forward.

Different states have different rules for replacing a US Senator if necessary. So, anything could happen.

The following is not necessarily based on death but on enough incapacitation that the Presidential candidate cannot continue running -

In a normal election, Biden should be Trump, but if it is not Trump, then Biden might have a more challenging time. I've seen enough of DeSantis to not believe he is a viable candidate, but he would be significantly younger than Biden. If Republicans are smart enough to run a Republican who is not an extremist on abortion and other cultural issues, they would have an excellent shot at beating Biden.

If Biden cannot run for a second term, the Democrats would most likely run Vice President Kamala Harris. I greatly admire her and think she would be a first-rate President. I am less sure of her ability to run in the hailstorm of negative press and Republican nastiness that would come her way.

Some day, at some point in time, the Democrats will need to turn to a younger Progressive. Of course, my first choice would be Congressperson Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. But it isn't likely for 2024. As younger voters gain voting strength, she and others like her will become more viable.

Change will be coming in our body politic. That is also an actuarial certainty.

It may not be in 2024. But it is coming.

Return of the SPECULATRON! Saturday Political Soap Box 278

 A return to one of my most unasked for features - the Speculatron, where I try to predict the political future with uncanny inaccuracy!

While Prime Minister Joe Manchin tries to rule us all from his houseboat, let's take a look at what the future may hold depending on the passing of the Build Back Better  Bill, or some remnant thereof -

The entire 3.5 trillion-dollar passes intact

Yeah.  As likely as a camel passing through the eye of a needle. It would be an amazingly transformative bill, leaving us much better off.  Free community college, paid leave, extended child care credits and improved Medicare benefits, real and effective climate legislation, fairer tax rates, and on and on.   Every American life would be substantially and visibly improved.

The 2022 political result of this joyous victory?  Republicans narrowly take control of the House and the Senate.

Huh? What? Why?  Because too many Americans are short-sighted and can't look past their own nose.  The benefits will be quickly absorbed, but the negative reaction from Republicans, Trumpeteers, AND the media, both conservative AND mainstream, will drown out the effects of any progress.

A watered-down version of Build Back Better passes

Yeah, this will still have some good things, but it will be harder for most Americans to see in their everyday lives. Thanx and a hat's tip to Prime Minster Manchin and the wealthy donor's new BFF, quirky little Krysten Sinema.

I can't tell you at this point what will survive the great Manchin/Sinema Chew-Up, but the results will be decisively less effective than the original bill.

It's odd that the Progressives, who are increasing in number and legislative muscle, can still be stopped by two Corporate Democrats.  But that's where we are.  Just imagine the reverse, however.  What if two Progressive US Senators stopped a bill filled with goodies and lard for the top 10%, designed by Corporate Democrats?  The media would be up in arms!  Joe Scarborough would be expectorating so much spittle his studio would be drowning in it!

The 2022 political result of this partial victory?  Republicans decisively win control of the House and the Senate.

This one is easier to explain.  There is historical precedent. Obama watered down the bill to get us out of the recession so much that the cost was slashed, and half was given to useless tax giveaways to the rich and mega-corporations in a desperate attempt to win over Republicans (an attempt that failed spectacularly).

While it did help us out of the recession, it did it in kind of a frog-boiling way.  It was so slow that most people didn't connect it with the legislation that passed.  They were easily persuaded that it had little effect on their lives.  And in 2010, the Republicans received huge gains.

The Democrats have learned nothing, and this is the scenario most likely to be repeated.

No bill passes

The saddest thing to me about this scenario is that everyone will blame Joe Biden.  Could he have negotiated better?  Maybe, at the margins.  But ultimately, the cake is baked.  Even with reconciliation, even if the filibuster was eliminated, you are still stuck with the King of Coal Manchin and the Queen of the Lobbyists Sinema.

But the American people won't see it that way. Instead, they will see Biden as weak and ineffective and blame him entirely.  

The 2022 political result of no bill passing?  Republicans tromp with a merciless, unprecedented beat down.

Boy, aren't these conclusions sorry and sad!  Okay, maybe there's some hope if we pass the whole thing (sadly, that ship has sailed), but even if  Republicans take control, at least we'll have passed the whole thing. Moreover, we'll have laid the groundwork for a better future, one that will be difficult for the Republicans to reverse.

In a vain attempt to be a contrarian, here is the scenario that offers the most hope for Democrats in 2022  - 

Manchin and Sinema join the Republican Party

Let people see what the full effects of letting the Trumpified Republicans run the Senate look like.  It wouldn't be Democratic disarray that stopped things - it would be Republican intransigence. So we can blame government dysfunction on its true source - Republicans.

This would give Biden something to campaign against -  a full-throated wail at the Do Nothing Senate.  Give 'em Hell like Harry Truman did.

I would prefer this happen after the Build Back Better bill passes (in all its watered-down glory), but I'll take what I can get.

I'm not ashamed of it.  I'm not trying to be a Purge-aholic.  But, dang it, it's time.  It's time for a Progressive takeover of the Democratic Party.

I don't know if this will work.  There's a lot to fight - state voter suppression laws, gerrymandering, a media pretty much united against progressives.  But there's also hope - most progressive solutions poll well when they're not swamped with party labels.

Here's to hope!

The Vanishing Speculatron: Saturday Political Soap box 236

I used to do a feature within Saturday Political Soap Box called the Speculatron, where about once a quarter, I would speculate as to coming events in the political world.  I wasn't always accurate, but for the political buff in me, and my love of speculative fiction, it was a fun thing to do.

It's been a long time since I 've done one.

Why?

The future has been hard to face.  My usual long-term optimism has fled me, and I see fewer and fewer ways out of our current dilemma.  Problems are so severe that even the election of the very best we have to offer may not be enough to save us.

And it's becoming clearer and clearer that we may not elect our best.

I would love to project that the Democratic nominees will be a team of Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar, or Warren/Kamela Harris.

I can't predict that.  Because it appears that I am totally out of synch with the Democratic primary voter.  Somewhere, somehow, the fear of Trump is so strong that we've turned our back on female candidates, and also people of color.  We're scared that these people will not be effective in running against Trump, that only a white candidate can draw the votes needed to win.

What poppycock and horse hockey.  Nothing could be further from the truth.

Women and people of color drive Trump crazy and cause hin to say more and more disgusting things.  His allies will not be able to contain themselves, and go too far, if not for the dedicated Trumpeteer, than for a significant majority of Americans.

This irrational decision of Democratic voters was driven home to me by an Iowa exit poll.  58% of Iowa Democratic caucus-goers were women, but even though they had two incredibly well-qualified women as candidates, they did not support either one in a significant way.  There was going to be no surge of sisterhood like there was for Hilary in 2016.

So my preferred outcome for 2016, female candidates for both President and Vice-President, look increasingly unlikely.

So, where then are we headed?

Bernie is the front runner right now.  I like Bernie.  Bernie is building support among non-whites now - did you know that?  Nah, the media doesn't report on that.  To be the nominee, he must show he can grow support beyond the base of his highly-dedicated supporters.  He not only has to achieve, but he also has to overachieve.  No one is going to let a Progressive be the nominee unless he is beating everyone else by significant margins,  He'll have to take not just the lion's share of the delegates, but a MAJORITY of the delegates.  Being slightly in front will not be enough to stop the large army of media and political pundits from savaging him.

Mayor Pete is a reasonably nice guy, and he has a chance to throw up enough smoke that people aren't sure whether he is Progressive or Corporate.  This may work for a while, but I don't know if he can keep it up.  I would feel a lot better about Mayor Pete if he had a bit more executive experience (statewide) and legislative experience behind him. 

Biden...I don't know what to say.  It's clear to me now, particularly from his Iowa Caucus night speech, and some other recent times I've heard him, that he has lost a step.  I still think he is highly qualified to be President, but he is a lousy campaigner and the most visibly aged of the candidates. I would not rule out a comeback - Super Tuesday has states with more diverse constituents, and most of them will know him primarily from ads and the great job he did as Obama's Vice President, rather than his town halls and campaign appearances.  It's not likely, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. 

I am Team Warren.  I make no excuses about that.  I will be with her until she withdraws.  She is not likely to leave before Super Tuesday, so that is who I am voting for.  It's dim for the home team, but nevertheless, we Warrenites persist.  She has the talent and abilities to be a first-rate President, and a greater ability to work with all sides than she has been given credit for.  Not only does she have to fight the current prejudice against female candidates, but she is being squeezed out from the Progressive vote by the loyalty to Bernie Sanders, and on the moderate side by the rise of Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

Klobuchar...she is far too conservative for me, but...I have to admit she is demonstrating the skill set to be a good President.  I find her the best of the moderates.  I wouldn't be overly thrilled if she got the nomination, but I would be comfortable with it.  She has to demonstrate an ability to win votes beyond her moderate base and pull in Progressives and people of color.  Her, in combination with Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, or Julian Castro, might be quite an exciting ticket.

Bloomberg...I find his candidacy very upsetting.  I can't talk about it, even write about it without getting overemotional.  Nominating him would signal our country's complete surrender to the wealthy oligarchs.  How any Democratic, of any stripe, could consider this super-rich Republican/Independent is far beyond my comprehension.

It's hard to speculate about what I fear.  And I fear a Bloomberg candidacy.  Would I vote for him over Trump?

I would vote for Ted Cruz over Trump.  I would vote for a ham sandwich over Trump.  So, yes, I would vote for Bloomberg over Trump.

But it would make me very sick to my stomach. I would not want to be the next person in the voting booth after me.  It might not be pretty or smell very good.

I haven't got to Trump and his accelerating march towards authoritarian fascism.  This is something else that is too disturbing to speculate on.  He has learned from his Senate acquittal.  He has learned he can get away with anything, and he won't be stopped.  God help us all.

Bottom line?

I can't accurately predict the Democratic nominee.  My hopes for a good outcome are too low, my fear of a bad outcome are too high.

Pushing me to make my best guess?

Klobuchar/Booker.

If it can't be Warren, that's the next best outcome I can project.

Please, just don't let it be Bloomberg.

Final 2018 Election Speculatron : Saturday Political Soap Box 196

So, Tom, any changes since your last Speculatron (word patent pending)?

Well, not too much.

House

In August, I predicted the Republicans would hold the house with a 5 seat edge (223 to 212, with 218 needed for a majority.

I still think that is in the realm of possibility, but everything would have to break the Trumpian way.  The country would have to be a lot more intolerant and fear-based than even I think it is. So, yeah, this could still happen.

I'm a little bit more optimistic now.  I think the Democrats will retake the house with a 10 seat edge (228 to 207).  There are just too many districts where Trumpian support is marginal at best.  Trump's extremism and racist tone are attracting and energizing his base supporters, but it is also repulsing more people in the middle.

Senate

In August, I predicted that the Republicans would gain two seats (53 to 47, including Independents that caucus with either the Democrats or the Republicans). 

I remain pessimistic about the Senate.  They could lose three or four seats instead.  Democratic incumbents in red states, like Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and Joe Donelly in Indiana, are in grave danger.  Many of them have tried to stake grounds as Republican Lite, which I think is ALWAYS a dangerous strategy.  Why vote for a pretend Republican when you can have the real thing?  I would love beyond measure to see Beto O'Rouke beat Ted Cruz in Texas, but that is no sure thing.

If the Blue Wave is strong enough, it is possible that Democrats could do slightly better.  Here's my most intriguing possibility  -

      The Senate winds up a 50 - 50 tie, which is then broken by the Republican Vice President             (currently Mike Pence).  BUT Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Independent (nominally- one time   she lost  the  Republican primary, and then won by doing the Joe Lieberman thing) has an   unprecedented fit of   conscientiousness and decides to caucus with the Democrats.  Unlikely?   Maybe.  But you never   know.

State and Local

I'm not going to make Georgia predictions for local candidates.  I pray Lisa Ring wins.  I don't want to say anything else about that.  Greg O'Driscoll would be fantastic in the State House.  'Nuff said.

Stacey Abrams deserve to win.  In a fair election, her odds are better than even.  But she's running against the referee.  On my social media feed, my Trumpian friends have reserved their most vile venom for her.  I wonder why.

Andrew Gillum looks poised to win the Governor's race in Florida.  What a refreshing break that will be from the white-collar criminal con-man Rick Scott (who should also lose his Senate race)!  Governor Gillum should become a Democratic superstar, and I welcome that.

Across the country, the Democrats should gain in Governorships and State Legislators.  It will be wonderful to restore a better sense of balance throughout the country.

The Bad News

No matter who controls Congress, Trump will use the outcome to his advantage.  If he retains control, you can kiss Mueller goodbye.  It will confirm his approach of racism, sexism, and hate.  The remnants of Obamacare will be destroyed, with nothing to replace it.  The debt will mount, and programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will be under constant siege.  Global warming will accelerate, endangering the entire planet. Treaties will be broken and allies offended, while dictators get lavished with love. Things will be as ugly as can be, uglier than your worst nightmares.  I'm not trying to scare.  It's just the facts.

If the Democrats should take the House, Trump will have much of his most extreme agenda stuck.  They'll be plenty of hearings and investigations, and RIGHTLY SO.  Will Trump be impeached?  He should be, but I don't know that he will be.  What he will do is turn into Harry Truman, and rail against Congress 24/7, and blame them for EVERYTHING, especially the stuff that Trump himself does wrong.  When the economy slumps (which, given the deficit, trades wars, rising personal debt, automation, and the business cycle, seems inevitable), he will use the Congress as a whipping boy, blaming the collapse he created on the Democrats,  and try to demonize his way to re-election in 2020. 

If the Democrats take the House, it will provide an essential check on extremism.  It will not turn the world into puppy dogs and rainbows.  It will still be a very, very scary world, and will remain so until the worldwide trend towards authoritarian fascism is finally reversed.

The Good News

Whatever the exact outcome, the number of Progressives in Congress should increase.  And that is a beautiful portent for the future.  It means we're slowly moving closer to Medicare For All, a living wage, affordable college, checking climate change and creating green jobs, a strong military acting as a force for good in the world, and a place of greater civil rights, kindness and caring. 

It can't come fast enough.

August Speculatron - How Blue is Blue? Saturday Political Soap Box 190

Meme was for a specific state [rimary, but of course, it holds true for November 6.  

It's time for the speculatron again!

Time for my often wildly inaccurate predictions of our political future!

In fairness, I have not been entirely wrong in the past.   My predictions are hurt by continually underestimating how many people can be suckered by a narcissistic con man who is totally unfit for any public office.  I predicted a narrow victory for Clinton winning by 2 to 5 percentage points (which she got) but who knew, besides the Russians and the Trump insiders, that the electoral college would break in such an ugly way?

So, here is my initial prediction for the 2018 election :

The Blue Wave will be the Blue Splash

Okay, my Democratic Party-inclined friends.  You can vilify me if you want to.  But I have to start with a major unfortunate assumption -  Republicans, even those who dislike Trump, will come home to roost.  I watched them do it in 2016.  Despite everything we see happening, they will do it again in 2018.

That'a not enough to win everywhere, but it's enough to hold the profoundly red gerrymandered districts that dominate the House of Representatives.

Right now the House stands at 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats (this includes 6 vacancies that I have apportioned to the party that last held the seat).  At this point in time, I believe that the Democrats will gain....

20 seats!!!

Wow!  That's a huge move!  That would leave the House breakdown at...

220 Republicans, 215 Democrats

Close, but no cigars.  And with the House being a majority rule chamber, they will continue to control the agenda, and all the committees of Congress.

The Senate composition, with Independents assigned to whom they caucus with, is:

51 Republicans, 49 Democrats

The problem the Democrats have here is that 26 of the Senate seats up are held by Democrats, some of them in states that voted for Trump.  That's 26 out of 35, up a whopping 75%.  They are going to have to achieve phenomenal success to hold their own.  I have always detested the Republican Lite strategy that many of the Blue Dog Democrats run on, and I fear it may be a big losing strategy this year.

Translation:  Democrats can have a reasonably successful midterm and still not gain the paltry two seats they need for control.

My current prediction is, that after the midterms the Senate composition will be:

53 Republicans, 47 Democrats

That means the Republicans will still be in charge of things.  It used to be that the Senate allowed great influence by minority party members.  This is not true anymore.  Senator McConnell runs as roughshod over the Democrats in the Senate as Paul Ryan (or his replacement) in the House.  There will be no check on Supreme court nominees or any other nominee for that matter.

Mueller could have a tape recording of Trump giving away the store to Putin, and the Republicans will not move to do anything about it.  No conspiracy, no crime, no belligerency or trampling of the constitution will go checked.

The autocracy will move forward.

The good news?  There will be more Progressive Democrats, and they will continue to advocate the only agenda that can save the nation -  Medicare For All, a living wage, combatting global warming, increased access to higher education, voting rights, civil rights, the rule of law.  

The bad news?  The Republicans that survive the splash will be the batcrap crazier ones.  Expect greater insanity and greater tolerance and defense of whatever Trump does.

What could change this?  The economy is deteriorating, especially for the middle class, but it is happening too slowly to have much of an effect by November.  The Mueller probe could accelerate fast enough to make it more transparent how foul this President really is.  Democrats might accidentally hit the right themes in the campaign (I wish I could tell you what those are, but I'm just not sure).

At the same time, Trump could start a war that rallies enough people for the short time it takes for the election.  He will whip up hatred and bigotry and fear, and I can't promise how all that will work out.

Not everyone believes there will be a blue wave. Look at this meme below to see what kind of cranky trash is being shared by the Trumpeteers _

Will the midterms prove this tragically true?

I hope not.

I hope I'm wrong.

Am I trying to pull my Trump-opposing friends out of complacency?


Why, yes.  Yes, I am.


It's going to take every single one of us to stop this tragedy I predicted from happening.

EVERYONE SINGLE ONE OF YOU HAS TO VOTE!

NO EXCEPTIONS!

NO EXCUSES!

ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING IS AT STAKE!

VOTE LIKE OUR DEMOCRACY DEPENDS ON IT!

BECAUSE IT DOES!

Revenge of the Speculatron! Saturday Political Soap Box 178

It's time for another speculatron!

Yes, wild and often inaccurate speculation about an uncertain political future!

Speculation #1

Donald Trump cannot survive the tailspin he is in.

Of course, there is no rational way that he still be with us now,  By everything that's happened to past Presidents, we should be complaining about President Mile "Handmaid's Tale" Pence right now.

But I think Mueller's got Trump in the crosshairs.  He is building a case that only the most ignorant, addled, white supremacist-style psychopaths will be able to deny.  The list of impeachable offenses will be longer than a 1980s New York City phone book.

Will he survive?  Maybe.  Stranger tales have been told.  Should he survive,  Oh, H to the no.  Not if we preserve any decency and democracy to our system.

Speculation #2

The House and Senate are Back, Baby!

Yes.  Unless something remarkable occurs, the House and Senate will be back under Democratic Party control this November.

What will that mean?

It depends.  There are two basic Democratic parties.  One is Progressive, the other is Corporate.  It's not an either/or thing, though.  Many will have a mix of positions.  What progress we'll make will depend on that mix.  I can't say for sure, but I think it will lean progressive.

How will the White House react?  Hard to say.  If it's Trump, he has no real fixed political position, except for aggrandizing himself, and his white supremacist instincts.  He may bend on some things.  He shifts and squirms, depending on who is the last person to talk to him, and how much they kiss up to him.  Flattery will get you everyone.  At least until the next person to butter him up.

If it's Pence, probably nowhere.  He's on a mission from God.  OK, well, I doubt it's really God he's talking to, but he and "Mother" will definitely try to careen off toward The Handmaid's Tale.  I don't think he'll have much success., but he can veto and executive order, and be protected in his prejudice by an increasingly conservative Supreme Court.  God help us all (and by that I mean the real, true, loving god).


Speculation #3

Just like Trump did with his businesses, Trump's policies will bankrupt us.

This is not speculation, as much as it is basic economic truth.  His own budgeting creates an additional trillion dollar debt.  His passed tax plan (designed to assign virtually all benefits to the very wealthy and corporation) will lead to a trillion and a half more in debt.

And suddenly, viola!  Republicans no longer care about the debt.  It's magic!  Until the Democrats take control again.  Then it will be non-stop whining about the debt THEY CREATED!

Side note:  if the Republicans will continue to try to come for your Social Security, Medicare, and even Veteran benefits.  I GUARANTEE IT.  Note, however, I say try,  Because....

Specualtion #4

People are finally getting woke!


Yes, that has been the best part of these dark times!  Citizens are taking to the streets and media, and they're trying to force the media and the politicians to pay attention!  Whether it's the #MeToo movement, or the brave and courageous students standing up for gun reform, it is breathtaking and encouraging to see.

We are still losing more battles than we are winning, but we are fighting back.  But we can't forget the most important plale to turn out - and that is the ballot box.  And it's not just enough to challenge at the federal level.  We also have to...

Speculation #5

Take back State and Local Offices!

Anyone who thinks that malevolence occurs only at the federal level is sadly mistaken.  Look at the damage Lt. Governor is causing with Delta.  Georgia could lose one of it's major employers over an NRA discount!  Stunning, really.  Corporations have to be forcibly compelled to offer a discount they no longer want to offer?  How childish!  How moronic!

And trust me, even at the local level, politicians operate without the best interests of their constituents.  'Nuff said for now.

Not every state and municipality is going to flip.  But I do believe a better balance will be restored.

Speaking of balance, I really think the country would operate better with a multi-party system.  It would require shifting coalitions and common sense compromises.   But that's for another speculatron at another time.

We must continue to strive for the light at the end of a very dark tunnel.

Return of the Speculatron! Saturday Political Soap Box 171

It's been awhile since I had a Saturday Political Soap Box, almost a month ago, when Damn Strait announced his run for Congress.  Not there haven't been political posts - I've done a good number during the weekdays - I just keep forgetting that Saturday Political Soap Box is a brand name and don't literally have to be written on Saturday.  My change in schedule, due to my semi-retirement, has changed up the time I'm writing, and Saturdays have been busy with other things.

I've been reading a great book by the wonderful writer Rick Pearlstein, The Invisible Bridge: The Fall of Nixon and The Rise of Reagan. This is a an era where I was already politically aware and paying attention, but it is interesting to see it put back into context.  About a third of the way through this big book, there two big surprises to me.

The first is that there is a remarkable similarity between my childhood and Reagan's, that has to do with an overactive imagination in the mid-elementary years, our peer's reaction to it, and what we did in the aftermath.  I intend to write about this in more depth in a blog post soon.

The second was the pace of Watergate.  I am up to early Fall 1973 in the book, and it is amazing to me how much had come out by that time about Nixon's involvement in Watergate, and how corrupt and vile the whole thing was.  Several major Watergate conspirators had already spoken before Congress, Woodward & Bernstein had published many details in the Post, and it looked Nixon was caught.  But it was still another almost full year, not until August 1974, that the threat of imminent impeachment and his fateful meeting with three prominent Republican Senators, brought Nixon to resignation.

I did not recognize this at the time I was going through it, mostly because I realized Nixon was guilty from very early on.  Nixon was a dishonest crook, a paranoid, a dark and brooding man, and I thought everyone knew it.  Why was this such a big surprise? I had lost faith that enough others would recognize this, so the resistance was not surprising to me.

What does this have to with current events?  It means to me, the investigation into the Russian connection to Trump seems almost overwhelming to me, and I didn't see how much longer it could go on before Trump was out of office, most likely by resignation, but also possibly impeachment or removal via the 25th Amendment.  If anyone were to ask me before reading Pearlstein's book, I would say that Trump didn't have months or years, but only a matter of weeks.

Now, I'm not so sure.  Yes, news seems at a quicker pace than during Watergate, but that may be illusory, and just the way we remember things when the past is telescoped.  Really, there were frequent and devastating headlines about Watergate and Nixon's corruption.  They just took a longer time than you would suspect to sink in.

So it may be a longer time than I thought, maybe a year or more, before it finally sinks Trump. Especially if Trump hunkers down and decides to fight impeachment, or he grants strategic pardons, or fires Mueller, it makes it hard to tell how long this will take.

Trump starts with a smaller popularity base than Nixon.  Trump won with an electoral college majority, but lost the popular vote by almost three million.  Nixon won with one of the largest margins in American history, both the popular vote and the electoral college.  It took a long time to erode that. But it did erode,  By the summer of '74, most polls show that if the election were held that day, McGovern would have won.

This may go quicker because Trump is already at a remarkably low 35% or lower approval rating. This sounds like we're approaching a done deal level about his survivability,  but it is disconcerting to note that Hillary Clinton still does not poll at beating Trump.  Her margin of support has also gone down. I worry until some of those who voted for Trump admit they made a horrible mistake and that they should have voted for Clinton instead.  I won't name names, but I have specific people in mind, in my own circle of friends AND co-workers who I am waiting to hear this confession from.  I know. I am waiting in vain.

We may be in for many more shocks before enough people wake up to be able to move past Trump, to accept his resignation, removal or impeachment, without degenerating into civil conflict.  Yes, some may fuss regardless, some may become violent regardless, some may continue to vote for con men and charlatans, but hopefully the massive numbers will be there so that we can move on.

Given all this, if this is a Speculatron, I must make my predictions, realizing how wrong they can be.

So here goes -

I still think he'll be gone by the end of the year, most likely by resignation.  If he doesn't resign, then it may be by Senate Trial in the Spring of 2018.

Vice President Pence is involved, but he may survive as part of a compromise to get Trump to resign, and to get America to move onto other things.  That compromise will involve pardoning Trump, and, at a minimum, members of Trump's family. Pence, of course, will be an absolutely horrible President, and should be able to work better with Congress to get some truly monstrous stuff passed.

The Democrats will come within a hair of controlling the House in 2018, and the Republican margin in the Senate will be about the same.

The damage that will be dome will be considerable.  The only advantage will be at least Pence is not clinically insane.

In 2020, the Progressive Majority will take hold, transforming American politics for the next couple of generations.

That last prediction is not just a Speculatron.  It is a hope and a prayer.

It is our only chance at survival.

2016 Year End Speculatron- Entering A New Dimension: Saturday Political Soap Box 151

We are about to enter into a dimension as terrifying as any we have known, a vast and timeless horror that rival's Dante's 9th level of Hell.  It is not the middle ground but the end game, choosing shadow over light, favoring superstition over science, and it lies in the pit of man's fears and the summit of his ignorance.  This is the dimension of hatred and bigotry, controlled by the narcissistic whims  of a spoiled 70 year old toddler.  It is a nightmare dimension which we call....The Drumpf Zone.

The above is based on the opening lines of that great TV show, The Twilight Zone.  Even that show never contemplated something as horrible as what we are facing.


So, anyone who regularly reads my speculatron columns knows I was wrong about the big one. Hillary Clinton did not win with electoral college vote in the mid-300s.

Yeah, Tom.  If you're so smart, why did you get that so wrong?

First and most important. in spite of everything, I had more faith in the American people that that.  I could not conceive that enough people would fall for the con man act that he could cobble together enough electoral votes to be competitive.  I underestimated the American people's anger and their willingness to be sold a bill of goods. They elected a circus clown, a carnival barker, a man devoid of morals and ideology, someone who clearly only cared about himself.  I have read hundreds of explanations as to why someone might have voted for Trump, and I dismiss them all.  It was an act of political insanity. Period.

Secondly, we're talking about a race where one candidate won the popular vote by almost 3 million, and the other won the electoral college by winning three Rust Belt states by a combined margin of under 80,000 votes.  No, it shouldn't have been a close election.  Clinton should have walked away with it.  But it also shouldn't have ended in such a wide chasm of difference either.  It was the widest discrepancy and the biggest failure of our electoral system in American history.  I have made a practical, non-partisan solution to this problem in another political post, and even though it is non-partisan, my conservative friends still scoff and sneer at it.  What an ugly divide we live in.

Thirdly, I was right about an important component of the election, and that it would be all about the Rust Belt states.  The South would go Republican, many of the coastal states would vote Democratic, and so on, regardless of who the candidate was.  The Rust Belt, as can be clearly seen by the close votes in those states, is where the battle needed to take place.  And that is where the campaigns needed to focus.  Trump's team recognized this more than Hillary did.  They picked a Midwest governor as the Vice Presidential candidate, and they campaigned relentlessly in that region.  Meanwhile, Clinton picked the bland and milquetoast Virginian political insider, Tim Kaine.  Not only did Kaine not help in the Midwest, he really didn't help anywhere (some could make a case for Virginia, but I even doubt that), as he quickly disappeared into the media ether.  She should have chosen a populist firebrand, like Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, or even Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown.  And she should have camped them in the Midwest. They could have easily made up the 80,000 vote margin.

Fourthly, I was right that it was a stupid, short-sighted strategy for Clinton to focus her campaign on the idea that disaffected Republicans were going to come over to her.  I felt it in my bones that, despite what many of them were saying, they would come home to roost among the Trumpian base. Comey was hurtful, but it was just an excuse to do what they wanted to do, anyways.  The conservative media had spent DECADES reviling and demonizing Hillary, and in the end, it was just too much to overcome.  There may come a time when many of these common sense Republicans will wake up and admit that Trump is worse than Clinton, but it will come far too late to help her, and way too late to help the country.

So what happens now?

I don't know.  Nothing good, other than the hope that a Progressive Majority  may galvanize in the near future.

The Donald is a temperamental brat, a inappropriate tweeting machine, one whose bravado and defensiveness will endanger us all, particularly as this childish dope will soon have access to the nuclear codes.

If we can escape nuclear annihilation, we'll still be stuck with the most corrupt regime since Warren Harding.  This is not speculation.  It's baked in to how he wants to manage and profit form his businesses, and in the type of cabinet he chose.  I think one of the reasons he admires Putin so much is that Putin has used his leadership role to amass a fortune that is, by some estimates, as large as 85 billion dollars, making him the richest man in the world.  You don't think Donald "Surrounded by Gold Fixtures" Trump is not envious of that?  This comes as close as any explanation I have read to understanding why Trump may be doing what he's doing.

Global warming, instead of being checked, will be accelerated.  It won't be just your children's children that are effected by this.  It's won't even start with your children.  Now, it will also be YOU.

The safety net programs will be under constant siege, with the basic programs that the working poor and middle class have paid into and relied on, subject to weakening and destruction.  Some may be privatized so that the wealthy can exploit them and take advantage of those who need them.

Our foreign policy will become more chaotic and unstable.  We may withdraw from some places and engage in others.  We will always be one tweet away from a third world war.

At best, some manufacturing jobs may be kept, but they will be lower paid, with no union representation and fewer benefits.

Voting right will return to the Jim Crow era.  White privilege will be set in stone.  It will become dangerous again to be "different".  The press and the internet will be under constant threat and assault.  I will continue to speak out as long as I am able.  There are no guarantees.  Yes, it;s going to get that bad.  I already can sense the change of tone in this Trump dominated area I live in.

DC Comics, and other entertainment ventures, use the alternate world concept, and even number their alternate realities, ones where Superman never existed, or turned out to be villain, just as examples. DC refers to them as Earth One through Earth 52.  Marvel Comics has more complicated designations, like 616abc (made up example, but you get the idea).

Rod Serling, we are drifting off into The Twilight Zone, to a dimension more frightening than we have ever known.

Buckle up, everyone.

We are bout to enter into.....


Alternate Earth #666wtf.

God help us all.

The Last Speculatron for 2016: Saturday Political Soap Box 145

This is the last speculatron for the 2016 election.  Maybe for all time, if the Trump Apocalypse occurs.  You think I'm kidding?  You fancy that I'm exaggerating? Then you haven't been paying attention to his opinions on freedom of expression and the First Amendment.  Seriously.  No kidding. People like me could be in big trouble.  And I've been published in newspapers.  I have no place to run, no place to hide.  Fortunately, I do have a passport.  Don't get me wrong.  I don't WANT to leave the country.  I may be FORCED to.

Admittedly, this more of a prayer than a real speculatron.  I am on a mini-vacation while writing this, and I have deliberately removed myself from the polls, which have been all over the map.

Hillary Clinton needs to snuff out the life of the alt-right movement and Trump, and this can only be done by a landslide.  Thanks to the heavy hand of an interfering FBI, and the backsliding of some Republicans who should know better, this probably won't happen.  I believe it is more likely that she will have an Obama size win, with roughly 330 to 350 electoral votes.  Trump should get the same as Romney, maybe a little less, with a different configuration of states.  I would love for Utah to go to Evan McMullen, but they may not happen.

If Hillary wins by a closer margin, the alt-right will be energized and the false accusations of election rigging will energize the alt-right movement and fuel Trump for the job he really wants - head of his own media empire.  And the haters will have a platform to damage our politics for the next twenty years or so.

I believe the Senate will go very narrowly to the Democrats, by 50 to 52 Senators.  This will help nominations come to the floor, but as long as there are 40 or more far right Republicans, they will be able to block anything substantial coming to the floor.

I believe the Republicans will retain control of the House, but by a smaller margin, with the Democrats closing to within 15 to 20 seats.  They will block everything of substance, and continue to uselessly try to repeal Obamacare.  They will try to impeach Hillary from Day One.

Divided government does not have to be a bad thing.  It should engender compromise, with input from all political sides.  But the Republicans will continue their war against the governance of this country, with the attitude that if we can't have it all - nobody get's anything.

Locally, Barksdale will lose to Isakson, the current Georgia U.S. Senator.  All the unopposed Republicans running for offices on my ballot - SURPRISE!  They all win!

I believe Georgia Amendment One, which encourages the privatization of schools, starting with majority African-American school systems, will go down to defeat.  There's a lot of big money being spent on the Yes side, but a lot of teachers and every day people on the other side, and I think most locals are smart enough to see through the shenanigans.

Sigh.  If only most voting Georgians were smart enough to see through the vile shenanigans of Trump.

We can only pray.

Falling Into the Con: Saturday Political Soap Box 140

Although not labeled as such, this is a Speculatron.

What will be the outcome of the 2016 elections?

I'm sure everyone is just a'waitin' for T. M. Strait's insightful verdict.

Well, it depends.

I would love to see Hillary Clinton win 45 plus states, 400 plus electoral college votes, and 65% or more of the vote.  It's not impossible but it would require everything to break right.

Why?

Because some of you keep falling for the Con.  As Drumpf re-spins his webs,  some of you will be caught up in his madness.  Some of you may vaguely notice that what he is spinning is completely different than the one he did the day before, but others will see it and say, "You see?  He's coming round.  He's not as crazy as y'all thought he was."

WRONG

It's all a con, from top to bottom.  But I have hope.  Most of you don't get fooled by the same carny twice.  If you get fleeced once by an unscrupulous car dealership, you're not likely to go back again, no matter what they promise you.

BUT

You never know.  I won't be happy until Trump and his racist alt-right buddies are far distant in the rear view mirror.

What does Clinton's margin of victory depend on?

There is always the potential with a Clinton that one of their many sandals (pseudo or otherwise) catches fire.  But it won't matter what Trump or Breitbart say - most thinking people understand how they lie and weave fantasies.  What will matter is if a scandal has enough credibility to be investigated and verified by the mainstream media  (and no, they are not all in the tank for Clinton). If that's the case, it could cut into her margin, depending on how egregious it is.

There is a possibility that a major terrorist incident, domestic or otherwise, could shake up the election. Although it's hard to say what effect that may have.  If Trump is extremist and irrational in his reaction (as he has been in the past), it could actually benefit Hillary more than Drumpf.  Domestic mas shootings, to me, led some to really weird conclusions, as if the were Christopher Walken on SNL going, "I know what this song needs!  More cowbells!" So they answer, "I know what this country with so many gun incidents needs!  More guns!"

Clinton has so far concentrated on a strategy of pursuing alienated Republican voters.  This strategy scares the bejeezus out of me, as I'm afraid if Drumpf behaves for a few days, they'll wander back into the Con Man's fold. I know a number of Republican friends who despise Trump, but also will never vote for Clinton no matter what,so what they will really do is anybody's guess.  Her margin of victory is only going to be based in part on the number of alienated Republicans she wins.  And that a very small part of it.

Her margin of victory is going to be more dependent on rallying millennials, minorities, single women, the working poor and progressives to her side.  And so far, in my opinion, she has done a piss-poor job of it.  Her Vice Presidential selection, Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, a corporate Democrat, seems like a nice enough fellow but he's not a compelling campaigner, and he has little appeal to millennials or progressives.  It's great that she's already forming a transition team, but it is chock-a-block full of corporatists, including ones that support the TPP, fracking and other causes close to corporate hearts.

Since many of these groups are not being addressed, they may not turn out in large enough numbers to make this election a landslide.  And it needs to be, not just for the presidency, but for the Democrats to retake the Senate and make major gains in the House of Representatives.

My prediction is that things close a bit, but Hillary still wins, with 50 to 55% of the vote, and 350 to 375 electoral college votes.  Trump is clearly defeated, but not as completely humiliated as he needs to be.  Libertarians get 3 to 5% of the vote, and the Green party between 1 to 2%.

The Democrats take back control of the Senate, but not by the numbers they need to stop filibusters.  I see a split in the neighborhood of 53 to 47.  Progressives will be stronger, but not strong enough to stop Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York from becoming the Senate Majority Leader.

The Democrats will not retake the Senate, but will gain about 20 seats, leaving the Republicans in control roughly 227 to 208.  In the House, close don't mean squat, so Ryan and his minions will run roughshod over the whole process.  Between that and the Senate veto, we'll have another four years where little gets done.

And so it goes.

Well, at least the Trump forces will be vanquished.  Surely people will stop falling for the Con,

This I pray.

Summer Sadness Speculatron: Saturday Political Soap Box 135

One of the few bright spots of this summer political season is the continuing emergence of Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren as a major political figure.  No one has battled the dark side of the most dangerous politician of modern times, Donald Trump.  No, Bernie fans, she is not  a traitor.  She is the bridge to the future.  Bernie showed us the way.  She will lead us across.

I'm a Christian.  I'm not saying this to brag.  I'm saying this as a point of explanation.  As a Christian, one of my most deeply held beliefs is that our purpose is to be the hands and feet of Christ, and that is to do what we can to live the clarion call of the Lord's prayer, to bring the Kingdom of Heaven closer to Earth.  And that is accomplished not by the anger of forced conversion, proselytizing fear, or setting up walls and barriers to keep people out.  It is done through love, understanding, tolerance - by reaching to help your fellow man, and make this a more decent world for all.  Christians are not the only ones who believe versions of this -  many other faiths and secularists believe in working towards a better world as well. 

It's hard to look out at the present political landscape and see that on the horizon.  The summer looks like a bleak contest, between two candidates with high unfavorables, and the promise of the most negative tone in the history of our elections (which is saying A LOT!).  Clinton may break faith with progressive and run the country with corporations and the wealthy still tightly in control, and she is far too militaristic for my tastes.  This scares me a bit as my youngest son will become of draft age during her first term.  On the other hand, putting the nation in the hands of the impulsive fascist con man is the death knell of the American vision.  Everything that I love about America will be lost.  Is Trump a NAZI?  No, he's too erratic to be called that, but he is an authoritarian who has no respect for anybody but himself, and is willing to use rhetoric that does match up closely with NAZI tendencies.  Calling people based on nationality rapists and murderers?  Building a mammoth wall that will cost a fortune and have no practical effect except to denote America as a selfish, bigoted force?  Desiring to deport millions?  Endorsing the murder of terrorist families?  Encouraging the most vile forms of torture?  Wanting to ban people on the basis of religion, desiring to identify them and surveil their places of worship?  What else am I supposed to call all that but fascistic NAZI like appeals?

The great political movement of our time, Bernie Sander's run, has been presumably been squashed.  Hillary and her people may decide to make only the most vague appeals to Bernie, while actually tromping off merrily to the Corporate right.

But I have faith.

Bernie has planted the seed.  He has begun the dream.  Millennials, if they're smart, will keep the flame alive, and we will see a whole fleet of young progressive politicians becoming more and more prominent. Gaven Newsome, Tulsi Gabbard, Nina Turner and dozens more will flood the American stage.  Some will prove not worthy.  Some will surpass Bernie in impact.  And one or more WILL become President of the Untied States.

Bernie is our movement's Moses.  He has shown us the way, even though he will not make it to the promised land of the White House himself.  Bernie is our John the Baptist, opening the process up to future progressives.

So what will happen this election?  I don't know.  I pray Hillary wins. She may be my fifteenth choice, but Trump is my nine billionth.  I pray she picks a progressive to be her running mate, instead of the Corporate Center or even Right figure that I fear she will.  She will most likely pick Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.

I cannot rationally pick Donald Trump's running mate, because there is no rationality to him.  If I  was forced to a wall to guess, I would say New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.  Why not?  Christie's career lies in tattered ruins anyway.  Trump would be better off picking a Great Lakes region Senator or Governor, but I'm not sure there's any one suicidal enough to run with him.

Barring the unforeseen, Hillary should win decisively, by the largest margin of any Democrat since LBJ.

I also think there is a very real possibility that at least one of the presumptive nominees will not be the candidate on the ballot in the Fall.  The reasons I feel this could happen would fill another blog post, and if I may make these posts too long, people stop reading.

A quick message to Hillary supporters:  STOP IT!  You won!  Quit berating Bernie and his supporters. You're going to need us to win the general, and calling us immature is not helping your cause.

A quick message to Bernie supporters:  Don't be immature.  We don't have a multi-party system yet. Vote for Hillary to stop Trump, and to build a foundation to a progressive future - she will respond to you better than any Republican.  Writing in Bernie or Green will not help.  And trust me - Bernie will soon be telling you not to do it.  Pressure the platform, advocate for a Progressive running mate. and most importantly, find and fight for down ticket progressives.  Turning over the state and federal legislatures is as important, if not more so, than winning the Presidency.

A quick message to Trump supporters:  What the hell are you thinking?  You're letting an irrational mad-on that has been fueled by years of Fox News, right wing radio, and Conservative Christian preachers,take control of your better judgment.  Research Trump.  See what Trump is really leading us to.  Examine what Christianity really means, and how this frightening man is working in the opposite direction.  Can you be a Christian and vote for Trump? Yes.  Can you vote for Trump and claim you are doing so BECAUSE you are a Christian? No, you can't.

The political summer looks sad and dim.  But there is a brighter horizon, I promise you.  The future does not have to result in a better world, but the seeds have been planted.

Now it's up to us nurture, grow and harvest those planted seeds.

Millennials, I believe in you.  I'm counting on you.  I'm praying for you.

Bernie has shown us the path.

Now it's up to you.

Beating Expectations Speculatron: Saturday Political Soap Box 123

It's almost here!

The New Hampshire primary is only three days away as I write this.For those who read this before the primary, be amazed at my bold  prestidigitation.  If you are reading it after the New Hampshire primary, well, I'm too lazy to re-edit to make it look like I knew what I was doing.

Anyways, it's not about exact order.  If you want that, here it is - Sanders Clinton for the Democrats; Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Kasich, Bush, Christie, Carson, Fiorina for the Republicans.

But in New Hampshire, it's not always about winning.  It's about beating expectations.  It's about the difference between what mass media predicts, and what actually happens.  It's how Eugene McCarthy propelled his campaign just by finishing 7% behind LBJ.  A 42% showing was enough to help propel the President of the United States' decision to withdraw from the race.  In 1992, Bill Clinton was able to turn his third place showing into visions of being "The Comeback Kid".  And that implausible presumption actually worked.

As we approach New Hampshire, Florida Senator Marco Rubio is trying to convince everyone that his third place finish in Iowa clinches his getting the nomination.  And sadly, he may have a point.  The two people in front of him are so unsuited to the Presidency, and are so vile and dangerous, that his positioning has to be considered. It may put in the lead to be the Establishment's last great hope.

So here's my rundown of the expectations game:

Bernie Sanders

Poor Bernie.  He is poised for a tremendous victory over the greatest political machine of the modern age. This man, who far more than Trump represents a thirst for a new politics in this country, for a break from the domination of wealthy special interests, this 74 year old Jewish Democratic Socialist, is set to deliver the most important message our political establishment has ever heard.  And the mainstream media is fully set to dismiss him no matter the outcome.  He wins big?  So what!  It's a neighboring state to Vermont, and the next states are all Hillary country.   He wins but by less than current polling?  OMG, Hillary is GAINING on him!  So what if she was ten points behind?  Some polls showed he was up twenty points with a few days to go!

Hillary Clinton

I know this may not make sense to you, but Hillary is in the cat bird's seat.  There is nothing that can happen in New Hampshire that will stop the mainstream media's gushing over her.  And no, this has nothing to do with media being in the bag for her, or the Clinton News Network.  She is the ESTABLISHMENT candidate representing ESTABLISHMENT interests (albeit from a Democratic frame), and they are very slow to recognize the Sanders revolution.  They will probably be disbelieving and dismissive all the way up to President Sander's inauguration.

Donald Trump

He'll win, but nobody will pay attention to it.  It will probably be by less than current polling.  Trump does not wear well.  More people will abandon him as people pay closer attention, and the opposition gets a face (or faces) attached to it.

Ted Cruz

And now, I will drift away from my family friendly portion, and say....he is an ass.  He is a stand out ass among asses.  The most horrifying admission I have to make out of Iowa is to admit that Trump was right - Cruz body-slammed Carson, and tried to clamber over his political carcass in order to squeeze out his victory.  Expectations for Cruz in New Hampshire are not too high, but I think he will even fail those.  Expect no better than third and possibly a fourth place finish.  He will make his stand in South Carolina, and Super Tuesday later in the month will either be his victory or his Waterloo.  Personally, I'm pulling for our Canadian Senator to it get his repulsive ass stomped.

Marco!  .......  Rubio!

Both a candidate and a delightful pool game!  Don't get me wrong.  I think he is a lightweight who doesn't have much depth and has trouble showing up to work.  But he can be good at speeches (even if he has to crib Obama), and being intellectually weak has never been a disqualifier in the Republican Party (sorry - just keeping it real - look at their history of nominees and contenders). I think there is an excellent chance he finishes second, much closer to Trump than anyone is currently anticipating.  This is likely to start an establishment stampede to Rubio.  This may be premature, as I'm not sure Rubio will wear well.  We will see.

Republican Establishment Fight Club

The first rule of Republican Establishment Fight Club?  That if you don't get your s... together soon, there will be NO Republican Establishment Fight Club!  Bush, Kasich and Christie are barely hanging in there. Whomever finishes third or fourth from this group MAY get a pass to continue, particularly if the percentages are close.  The other two will be pointed to the exits, whether they want to take them or not.  I suspect the ticket out will be grabbed by Kasich, but there is a real scramble here.  The lesson is that maybe they should have done more to take on Rubio in Iowa.  Oh, wait.  Jeb Bush did that, spending over 14 million dollars for a sixth place finish and less than 3% of the vote.  But Jeb has a plan!  Beg people to clap for him, and run a last minute ad featuring Bush, Jr., so we can get a last minute reminder that he is brother to the worst President of the modern age. Well played, Jeb.  Well played.

The Are They Still in the Race Club?

Thanks, Cruz!  Ben Carson will probably now stay in the race regardless of the results just to defy Cruz's insanely evil tactics.  And Carly Fiorina will soon find herself only talking to fax machines.  The candidate you know nothing about, former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore, will chug along with only a handful of votes and no media attention whatsoever.

So there it is.  And the special thing is, it won't take long for you to see how full of it I am!

On to New Hampshire...and beyond!

Monday Morning Rubio Robo Update

I rarely come back and make a major update to my speculatron posts, but Rubio's Saturday debate performance was just so godawful, it was one of those late breaking events that could really change things up.  His constant repeating of the same set speech, even after he was called out on it, played into everyone's worst fears that Rubio didn't have the depth, experience and intellect to handle the job.  Kudos to Christie for a masterful job in calling him out.

Who will benefit?  Probably Trump.  Rubio was closing in on him, and now all that has gone with the debate winds.  This will leave Trump fairly secure in first place, as the Republican Establishment Fight Club is now a four-way brawl, with little time for one of them to emerge from the pack.  For months now, I keep mentioning Kasich, and I am ignored and thought foolish by my fellow political junkies, but I think there is a real possibility that Kasich will finish second and get the Establishment Golden Ticket.

Cruz should finish somewhere between third and fifth.  This will not be an impressive performance, but his real battles will come in South Carolina, and in some of the more conservative states on Super Tuesday. Any Establishment Fight Club member that finishes behind Cruz should consider exiting the race, for the sake of the party, and to save themselves further embarrassment.  Yes, I'm talking to you, Jeb Bush.

Sanders is more likely to win by five to ten points, rather than the fifteen to twenty I had hoped for.  Get ready for Clinton to be called "The Comeback Lady".  In Iowa, her .02% margin of victory was considered a win for the ages,  Now watch the Clinton people reverse course and claim victory in New Hampshire NO MATTER HOW MUCH BERNIE WINS BY.  

Sigh.  Politics.  It ain't bean bag.

And, yes, Barack Obama does know what he's doing.  THANK GOD!

How Trump & Cruz Lose the Republican Nomination: Saturday Political Soap Box 121

The fear in the Republican establishment is palatable. Will it be the misogynist racist Trump whose policies (such as they are articulated) are borderline fascist?  Or will it be Cuban-Canadian Ted Cruz, who brags incessantly about his unwillingness to compromise and who is hated by virtually everyone who has ever had to work with him?

In my opinion, you don't have to be an establishment Republican to fear these two.  You just have to be a thinking conservative who loves this country, and wants to actually see it governed effectively.  I have many conservative friends who are afraid that they will have to make a choice between these two, that all their other options won't be viable.

Well, I am here to show you light at the end of the tunnel.  I do this not to entice you into picking out a candidate that will be easy to beat by Bernie or Hillary.  You're already doing a fine enough job of that yourselves. No, I want the Republicans to pick their most capable candidate, someone whom even if I didn't agree with, has the basic competence to run this country.

So here's how:

IOWA:

Cruz narrowly beats Trump in Iowa.  This keeps Cruz as a contender, but not a very impressive one when we turn to larger states with a more diverse voting block.  It is easy to destroy Cruz with ads, and virtually no superdelegate (the ones selected by the Party and not bound by primaries or caucuses) will vote for him.  Like many Iowa victors in recent years, Cruz peaks and fades.

This scenario works if Trump edges Cruz.  Cruz just fades even faster.

One of the mainstream Republicans comes in third, in a fashion that exceeds expectations.  Right now, Rubio polls in third, but momentum is shifting fast.  Whoever it is will be a surprise, something that will create a small buzz in the mainstream media.

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Trump narrowly beats a mainstream Republican.  Cruz finishes fourth or lower.  That mainstream runner-up will quickly consolidate mainstream support around him, as the others either quit or stay in the race, but are like a snake who hasn't realized yet that its head has been cut off.

I've examined the summary of polls that Huffpost runs each day.  Who has made the most progress since the first of the year?  That may tell who does or doesn't have momentum.  Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina. Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum have all had sharp percentage drops in support.  Ben Carson is the champ in this regards, with his support declining by 194% from what it was, from 5.3% to 1.8%.

Marco Rubio has gone down from 12.5% to 12.4%, less than a 1% decline, but a downward thrust nonetheless.

Other have had modest increases, something less than a 10% surge.  Trump has risen from 28.7% to 30.8% and Cruz from 10.8% to 11.3%.  Christie, Bush and Rand Paul all have slight increases,  but all are still polling less than 10%.

Who has risen the most substantially since the first of the year.  John Kasich, the Governor of Ohio, the one that I've been trying to tell you about for MONTHS, as faithful Strait Line political followers would know. He has risen from 9.5% to 12.2%. a rise of 22% in just a three weeks.  He is now nipping at the heels of Marco Rubio, and is surpassing him in some of the most recent polls.

SUBSEQUENT PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES:

It's possible, even likely, that Trump and Cruz continue to win some contests.  I get the impression, however, that Trump doesn't play well from behind.  He will either unexpectedly give up, or say more and more aggressively stupid and offensive things, alienating himself from more and more voters.

With primaries and caucuses being spit three ways, the edge will be to the one who can attract superdelegates.  If it's only between Trump and Cruz, I am afraid the vast majority will break for Trump.  But they won't have to do that, because there will be a viable mainstream alternative.

CONVENTION:

Will there be a brokered convention?  Probably not.  Trump, if he cannot clearly win, will likely take his marbles and go home (as to whether he creates a third party or not, I don't know - although my quick impression is that he is too lazy and undisciplined to do the hard work to make that viable).  Cruz could be a force, but without the superdelegates and some of the more mainstream states, he will most likely be more of an irritant than a viable nominee.

Therefore, the nominee will come from the mainstream (mainstream for far right Republicans, that is).  My opinion is that will be Kasich.  He certainly would be your best shot to beat Hillary, which seem to be something you want to do.

THE MOST IMPORTANT THING:

And most importantly, my conservative friends (and I mean that sincerely - many of you are people I like and hold dear), I want you to understand that YOU HAVE A CHOICE!  Don't be cowed into thinking that you have to pick between Trump and Cruz.  YOU HAVE THE POWER to bring about a different outcome.

Vote for your best interests.  Vote for the best interests of the country.  Heck, for the best interests of the planet!

Oh.  That would be Bernie Sanders.

Anyways, I would settle right now for you just voting for somebody besides Trump or Cruz.

Please.  For the sake of us all.