Will we find our way out of it? Will we ever see the other side of our authoritarian nightmare and return to a more civil democratic republic? Will we escape like Hungary finally turning aside Orban, or will we live in a dystopian nightmare for decades like North Korea?
I don't know. We can only turn to the SPECULATRON * and guess.
Will we plunge ever further into the dark? Or will we finally turn to the light of democracy and resume America's path to greatness and freedom?
I don't know.
Well, that kind of destroys the spirit of prognostication, don't it?
There are many reasons to fear that we will not return to democracy anytime soon. Many of our institutions are hanging by a thread. Courts dominated by right-wing extremists who could negate progressive legislation, an Electoral College skewed towards advantaging small rural states and southern conservative states, relentless gerrymandering by conservative legislatures designed to lock in power for generations, a media largely dominated by rich right-wing zealots, a Christian Nationalist church with over-sized influence, and an increasing debt that will saddle future progressive efforts.
Is there hope?
Yes. Consider the picture above. Yes, Republicans use ridiculous cultural issues to inspire their supporters. Vilifying trans persons is just the newest boogeyman. They've been doing stuff like that for generations.
But sometimes, the fires rage too high, and they bring enough people over to make a difference. Optimistically, I feel like we are approaching one of those times.
What could that mean?
MIDTERMS
Everything else being equal, given (I pray) a minimum of election interference, the Democrats should take control of the House. There may be no amount of gerrymandering that could prevent this - they are overestimating how many solid Republican voters there are, particularly in the Hispanic community.
The Democrats should have a solid majority, somewhere between 20 and 40 seats.
The Senate may be closer. I think the Democrats will eke out a thin majority (two to five). Nice, but not a 60-vote filibuster-proof majority. But enough to halt the approval of the most heinous Trump nominees, and (hopefully) freeze the Supreme Court.
And yes, the Democrats should use hearings to investigate the administration's wrongdoing and, if necessary, impeach. But no impeachments will work - there will still be too many Senate Republicans. So this effort should not be the only thing that Democrats are known for.
They must pass popular progressive legislation in the House, even if the Senate filibuster stops them, even if the President vetoes it. There must be a clear record not just of stopping the administration's constant excesses, but of a traceable record showing the American people the path they will take when we elect a Democratic President in 2028.
2028 President
And in that 2028 election, Democrats need to nominate a TRUE Progressive. Mealy-mouthed candidates who receive large corporate donations are not needed. AOC, Talarico, and Ro Khanna would all be significantly better choices than corporate centrists like Newsome, Buttigieg, or Harris. Don't get me wrong. If one of the centrists wins the nomination, I will still vote for them. And I do believe they can be competent, practical leaders. I just don't think they meet the moment. Without decisive progressive legislation that favors the working class, the Democrats will once again be fleeting, as the Republicans rev up the cultural nonsense and tell the working class - see? They didn't do anything for you, did they?
There is little hope that the Republicans will nominate a decent candidate, one who, although conservative, supports constitutional democracy. The shrinking base has shown in recent Republican primaries that they do whatever Trump wants, no matter how irrational. So they will nominate from a narrow band of extremists - Trump (in direct violation of the constitution and ignoring his crumbling health), Vance, a sold-out Rubio, and even someone from the America First crowd - MTG, Tucker Carlson, and others, even more vile and disgusting.
So, yeah, that's my more optimistic take. Even if we take this path, it may take many years to self-correct.
But I got high hopes.
At least for this post.
Until next time,
T. M. Strait
AOC 28
*patent pending.
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