Into the Dark: Late Spring Speculatron - Saturday Political Soap Box 304

 Will we find our way out of it? Will we ever see the other side of our authoritarian nightmare and return to a more civil democratic republic?  Will we escape like Hungary finally turning aside Orban, or will we live in a dystopian nightmare for decades like North Korea?

I don't know.  We can only turn to the SPECULATRON *   and guess.  

Will we plunge ever further into the dark? Or will we finally turn to the light of democracy and resume America's path to greatness and freedom?

I don't know. 

Well, that kind of destroys the spirit of prognostication, don't it?

There are many reasons to fear that we will not return to democracy anytime soon.  Many of our institutions are hanging by a thread.  Courts dominated by right-wing extremists who could negate progressive legislation, an Electoral College skewed towards advantaging small rural states and southern conservative states, relentless gerrymandering by conservative legislatures designed to lock in power for generations, a media largely dominated by rich right-wing zealots, a Christian Nationalist church with over-sized influence, and an increasing debt that will saddle future progressive efforts.

Is there hope?

Yes.  Consider the picture above.  Yes, Republicans use ridiculous cultural issues to inspire their supporters.  Vilifying trans persons is just the newest boogeyman.  They've been doing stuff like that for generations.

But sometimes, the fires rage too high, and they bring enough people over to make a difference. Optimistically, I feel like we are approaching one of those times.

What could that mean?

MIDTERMS

Everything else being equal, given (I pray) a minimum of election interference, the Democrats should take control of the House.  There may be no amount of gerrymandering that could prevent this - they are overestimating how many solid Republican voters there are, particularly in the Hispanic community. 

The Democrats should have a solid majority, somewhere between 20 and 40 seats.

The Senate may be closer.  I think the Democrats will eke out a thin majority (two to five).  Nice, but not a 60-vote filibuster-proof majority.  But enough to halt the approval of the most heinous Trump nominees, and (hopefully) freeze the Supreme Court.

And yes, the Democrats should use hearings to investigate the administration's wrongdoing and, if necessary, impeach. But no impeachments will work - there will still be too many Senate Republicans.  So this effort should not be the only thing that Democrats are known for.

They must pass popular progressive legislation in the House, even if the Senate filibuster stops them, even if the President vetoes it.  There must be a clear record not just of stopping the administration's constant excesses, but of a traceable record showing the American people the path they will take when we elect a Democratic President in 2028.

2028 President

And in that 2028 election, Democrats need to nominate a TRUE Progressive.  Mealy-mouthed candidates who receive large corporate donations are not needed.  AOC, Talarico, and Ro Khanna would all be significantly better choices than corporate centrists like Newsome, Buttigieg, or Harris.  Don't get me wrong.  If one of the centrists wins the nomination, I will still vote for them.  And I do believe they can be competent, practical leaders.  I just don't think they meet the moment.  Without decisive progressive legislation that favors the working class, the Democrats will once again be fleeting, as the Republicans rev up the cultural nonsense and tell the working class - see? They didn't do anything for you, did they?

There is little hope that the Republicans will nominate a decent candidate, one who, although conservative, supports constitutional democracy.  The shrinking base has shown in recent Republican primaries that they do whatever Trump wants, no matter how irrational.  So they will nominate from a narrow band of extremists - Trump (in direct violation of the constitution and ignoring his crumbling health), Vance, a sold-out Rubio, and even someone from the America First crowd - MTG, Tucker Carlson, and others, even more vile and disgusting.

So, yeah, that's my more optimistic take.  Even if we take this path, it may take many years to self-correct.

But I got high hopes.

At least for this post.

Until next time,

T. M. Strait

AOC 28

*patent pending.

Quickie Georgia Primary Update

 

Just a quickie review of last night's Georgia Primary.

Governor

Keisha Lance Bottoms was the decisive winner in the Georgia Democratic primary for Governor.  She won 56% of the vote in a crowded field, with the next-closest candidate mustering only 19%. This means she can hit the ground running, while the Republicans...

have a very divisive runoff ahead of them.  Burt Jones, the Trump-endorsed lackey, receiving 38% of the vote, while the most racist candidate I've seen in this state since Lester Maddox, Rick Jackson, finished with 33% of the vote.  The best news is that my congressman, Buddy Carter, finished third and is now out of politics, at least until 2028.

Speaking of good news, the Democratic candidates for Governor received 54% of the vote, while the Republican candidates received only 46%.  Yes, more Democrats voted than Republicans!

Unfortunately for me, the bad news is that the county I live in continues to be MAGA SOAKED REPUBLICANS, with 91% voting for the Republican Governor candidates, and only 9% voting for Democratic Governor candidates.  This godawful percentage has held true for a decade or more. 

US Senate

Incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff was unopposed.  I would still love to know his total vote count, but I have not yet found a site reporting it.

The Republicans have two awful candidates in their runoff: Mike Collins, a Trump-backed extremist with 41%, and Derek Dooley, a nepo baby with 30%.  His father, Vince Dooley, was the much-loved Georgia football coach.  This apple, however, is very far from that tree. Georgia Republicans have a tradition of foisting sports-related names on a distracted populace (re: Herschel Walker).

US Congressperson 1st District

Speaking of nepo babies, Jack Kingston's son, Jim Kingston, snagged 52% and thus avoids a runoff.  I don't know much about him, except that he was endorsed by the orange conman, and he's not Buddy Carter.

The Democratic runoff will be between Joyce Marie Griggs (35%) and Amanda Holloerll (25%).  The person I voted for, Patrick Wilver, finished a distant 5th with 7% of the vote.  I'm not ashamed.  I will ALWAYS choose the candidate that I think will move us most quickly to true universal healthcare.

I lean against Joyce Marie Griggs.  She is in the moderate/conservative wing of the Democratic Party. I will likely vote for Amanda Hollowell, but I need to do a bit more research about her positions.

Georgia Supreme Court

I am sad to report that both pro-civil and human rights candidates lost to far-right Christian Nationalists. This was non-partisan, with no party labels, and not enough Democrats did the research to figure this out.  Had they followed the Governor's voting pattern, we would not be looking at such a disaster.

Well, I said I would be brief, and I have failed to do that.  I will try to address other races in subsequent posts. There are a number of Democratic runoffs, so Democrats need to show up in large numbers!  Let's keep outvoting the Republicans!

Until next time,

T. M. Strait

AOC '28

Georgia Primary: Lost Who to Vote For? Saturday Political Soap Box 303

 

PatrickJ Wilver, candidate for 1st Congressional District

This is a tough one.

Many of you have probably already voted in the Georgia primary, but I'm voting on Election Day this year only because that's what best fits our schedule.

It'd be difficult to come up with endorsements this year.  There are many candidates this year, and it's hard to find much information about many of them.  

I'm going to tell you where I'm leaning, but I highly encourage you to research for yourself.  

This is only for the Democratic Primary.  If you want to vote in the Republican primary, I really don't know what to tell you.  Most of their candidates are groveling to be the candidate closest to Trump. Good luck with that, attaching your star to a President whose star is falling to Reath, disintegrating before our very eyes.  The only thing I beg you is not to vote for Rick Jackson - a vile bigot running racist and cruel ads.

Governor

Keisha Lance Bottoms

Former Mayor of Atlanta...considered for Vice President by Biden

In this one, I have decided not to fight the inevitable.  She may not be the most progressive candidate, but she is competent and more than capable of being Governor.  She's the most likely to get over 50%, and I would really like to avoid a runoff.  The Republican race is likely to end in a divisive runoff, and I would rather our candidate have the lead time to consolidate support.

Another good choice would be Jason Estaves.  He may be a bit more progressive than Bottoms, and he seems like a good person, with some charisma and speaking skills.

Nabilah Parkes

Former State Senator. Gwinnett County

I'm leaning here right now.  She is experienced as a politician and an activist, and I believe will be good on healthcare and insurance issues.  Since she has legislative experience, she may be able to herd the cats in Georgia's legislature.

I'm also considering Josh McLarin.  He is also a State Senator representing a district that covers parts of the northern suburbs of Atlanta.  His legislative priorities are similar to Nabilah's, and I have seen some TikTok Georgib-based progressives endorse him.

Secretary of State

Cam Ashling

A progressive who also has financial and small business experience. She has the experience to handle all the needs and concerns of small businesses, with licensing and other services offered by the Secretary of State.  She is being on election integrity (OUR kind, not THEIR kind), and I believe has the analytical skills to be a good Secretary of State.

I'm also considering Adam Consonery, Jr. He is the candidate who has most clearly endorsed ranked-choice voting.

Georgia 1st Congressional District

Patrick J Wilver

He's a veteran (West Point Graduate), an activist, and a college student at Georgia Southern. He's young, energetic, sharp, and able to connect with the younger voter while still appealing to the rest of us (including this old man).  His platform is the most progressive, and he most clearly states his support of true universal healthcare.  He's capable of attracting the working-class vote and moving Congress away from corruption and toward addressing 21st-century issues, not gridlock and culture-war madness.

Joyce Marie Griggs is likely to receive the most votes because of her name recognition, but she is not my choice. A conservative-to-centrist Democrat, she has run and lost before and is unlikely to build the coalition needed to win in the General Election. I am most likely to vote against her in a runoff, so I am hoping that a genuine progressive is her opposition.

I won't go into all the others.  There is a lot. You do need to vote for Miracle Rankin and Jen Auer Jordan for the Georgia Supreme Court.  They will help protect us in matters of women's reproductive rights, voting rights, and workers' rights and interests.

Without details, where I'm leaning on other races -

Attorney General  - Tanya Miller

Commissioner of Agriculture - Sedrick Kent Rowe, Jr.

Commissioner of  Insurance - Keisha Sean Waites

State School Superintendent - Anton Anthony (Otha Thornton also looks good).

Commissioner of Labor - Brett A Hulme

Public Service Commissioner - Angelica Pressley (only if you want someone advocating for YOU instead of the insurance companies).

Court of Appeals of Georgia - Will Wooten

Court of Appeals of Georgia - Fatima Harris Felton

I normally don't vote for unopposed candidates, but I am making an exception for Jon Ossoff. He has been an excellent Senator, and I am proud he represents Georgia.  We need to send a message to the lunatics running on the Republican side that we will keep the best, like we did with Ralph Warnock (the best speaker in the Senate). 

Please, if you read this and have other recommendations, please let me know. I'm open to any thoughts as to who the most progressive candidates are.

T. M. Strait

AOC '28

Return of the Speculatron!

 

I used to frequently speculate about the political future.  If you search some of my older posts, you would find regular posts that I call speculatrons, where I opine on the potential of different political outcomes.

In the ugly return of the Trump era, this has become too grim to contemplate.

How a nation could return to someone as foul as Trump is beyond anything I could conceive.  It makes it hard to look at the future when you're staring at the reality of his supreme foulness.

Consider where we're at.

His popularity now ranges between 42 and 38%.  Most of that is with the collapse of independent support.  Most Republicans are still in his camp and will stay there, regardless of the Epstein files or even economic collapse.

What is happening with ICE and the concentration camps is unconscionable.  All economic indicators are moving in the wrong direction, including unemployment, the housing market, and inflation.  The stock market has rollercoastered, but is currently in the same place it was when Biden left office. Truth is being revised, including that, gosh darn, didn't you know? Slavery wasn't so bad.  Government data is being stifled.  We won't know much about the next devastating hurricane or storm, how severely the next pandemic is affecting us, or even the job numbers will be censored and fudged.  

Foreign policy?  The lunatic is aligning with the worst dictators on the planet.  He incessantly whines about how he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize.  Now he is implying that getting one may be his ticket to heaven.  

So, despite all this, he can still get Republicans to listen to him.  And right now, they are willing to gerrymander everyone else's vote away, led by Texas.

Let me clarify.  I hate gerrymandering. Congressional districts should be drawn as independently as possible, along lines that make geographical sense.

Unfortunately, that's not the world we live in.  Recent Supreme Court decisions have opened the way to this madness.  Republicans have done and will do this without impunity, and the Democrats cannot unilaterally withdraw and let the Republicans cheat their way to control.  Even with dwindling numbers, they think they can create enough safe districts to preserve their control of the House.

Enter Gavin Newsom.  He is meeting them tit for tat.  Not only is he threatening (with the people's support) to gerrymander California in response, he is also matching Trump in rhetoric and memes.  It is making Republicans angry as hell to see Trump's own tactics used against him.

But is this the best course to challenge Trump in 2028?

My argument is that Gavin Newsom is the best choice to face Trump in ... 2024. I'm not sure that's what is needed for the future of the Democratic Party in 2028.

Governor Newsom is a strong, formidable candidate.  But he offers nothing new or distinct in public policy.  

And I know what you're going to say.  That politics are largely personality-driven.

That's true, at least for the election cycle you're in.  However, it does not permanently alter the Democratic Party.  It would largely be a party dedicated as much to its corporate and wealthy donors as to anything else.  At most, it would offer small incremental changes.

And that is not what people want, at least the large majority of the working class.  They have to see the Democratic Party as their champions, and I'm not sure any of the mainstream candidates offer that.  And that would include Buttigieg, Harris, Shapiro, and similarly profiled candidates.

You're going to have to be bold.  Medicare for all, free college tuition, increased childcare support, significantly higher minimum wage, taxing the rich.  If the Democrats do not move towards this agenda, they will fail to become the party of the future.

The common wisdom now is that the Democrats don't dare run a woman or a person of color.  That is utter bull hockey.  What is needed is unadulterated progressivism, and a rejection of big-dollar donors. What you say is more important than any perceived demographic appeal.

However, personality and charisma are also important.  I wish that Governor Tim Walz had not been tainted with the Harris loss, but I don't think he can break free of it.  I wish Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren were younger.  Usually, after having had such old Presidents, we switch to a younger one.  I'm not sure anybody who is not under 60 and also high-energy will work.

That is why I'm solidly in AOC's camp.  She is young, vibrant, charismatic, and learning more about politics and how to express them every day.  She has the right positions to appeal to the working class, those with college degrees, across the entire racial and ethnic perspective. 

Yes, the reich wing will try to vilify her.  But they'll do that to any Democrat who runs.  Hell, if it were Joe Manchin, they would attack even him for being a socialist/communist.

It's probably true. Governor Newsom could probably win the election.

But Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez can win the future.

And I'm much more interested in the future of the country than I am in any corporate Democrat.

Until next time,

T. M. Strait

AOC '28!