Pallin' with Palin Prediction!

I have an important prediction regarding Sarah Palin. She will not run for President......as a Republican. She instead will build an independent political movement that will slowly break from the Republican party and use as a base to run for President in 2012. This may come as a new independent party, or she may absorb already existing parties, such as the Constitution Party, remnants of the Reform Party, and/or other parties. I can't say how successful this effort will be. I do believe she has the sense of destiny to become President, but her skin is too thin to be battered in a series of Republican primaries. So why not skip the middleman and go straight to the end game?

This is predicated on the supposition that her scandals are not so severe that it would alienate her Christian right base. So far they've shown an incredibly high tolerance for her missteps, ethical lapses and Jerry Springer-ready family. The coalition she is trying to build reminds me most of George Wallace, but with an even more intense religious edge.

At best she may carry the Wallace states plus a couple others like Idaho and Alaska, It depends in part on her performance, but also on who the Republicans pick as their nominee. They are going to have a serious battle between the hard right and the bat-shit lunatic crazy far right (sorry - Republican moderates have already left the building). Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, Gov Huntsman - these and their like would increase her base. Newt Gingrich might be a draw. Mike Huckabee could cut into her effectiveness. None of this should be interpreted that any of these people have a very good shot at winning the presidency.

I have seen varying comments as to why she resigned, many suggesting she is readying a presidential run. But I don't know of any stating flatly that it will be a third party run. So, remember, you brave few who actually read this blog, you read it here first!