Here is a picture of the man most likely to be the next President of the United States. Ron DeSantis, the bigoted, bullying Governor of Florida.
This is not an endorsement. It is a warning of where we're headed.
Just check with your most conservative friends (populist authoritarian Christian right conservatives, less so traditional conservatives) and ask who they like the most besides Trump. Odds are they will name DeSantis. If any of them named Romney, Cheney or Kinzinger, or someone similar, I would be astonished. Please let me know if that is the case.
There is a certain inertia to events. The American Will often moves counter to what would be best, to even achieve the basics of what they want. Sorry, conservatives, most Americans, even y'all, side with progressives when polled on individual issues. They understand that climate change is real, and we have to do something about it. They believe in science-based solutions to COVID. They want a raised minimum wage. They may not like abortion, but they're hesitant to completely eliminate women's reproductive choices. They want the wealthy and corporations to pay more of their fair share of taxes. They love their LGBTQ family and friends and don't want them persecuted. They want common-sense gun control measures, like background checks. They know that Putin is the bad guy and want to see Ukraine as a free democracy. Many of us want to see our children taught the truth in school, not religiously-infused right-wing propaganda. We realize we can't move forward unless we can recognize the truth about our past.
Yes, the voices against these and other common-sense measures are loud and strident. Those who oppose them do so with an angry passion that brokes no compromise. 35 to 40% of the American people will always vote for people like Trump and DeSantis. They are dedicated to an authoritarian, Christian right government.
The political system is set up in such a way as to advantage this fraction of the population. Small states have outsize power in both the electoral college and the Senate. They control most state legislatures (via past gerrymandering) which allows them to gerrymander the House of Representatives. They steal and control most of the nominations of the Supreme Court and have a 6-3 majority. They have the loudest and angriest propaganda outlets in their right-wing controlled media, drowning moderate media (liberal media is completely swamped).
And yet...if that was was our only problem, we could still win the majority of seats. No, the problem is the wanderers. That 15 to 20% of the American people who wander between the parties and seem to flop from one extreme to another. Yes, there are people who voted for Obama and then flopped to Trump. People who voted for Trump and then switched to Biden.
Voting based on identified interests, the Democrats would have won and increased control of Congress in 2010. They didn't. They lost badly.
And that is what it looks like will happen in 2022.
Sure, there is some inflation. Sure, Biden didn't get all the legislation he wanted. Sure, the Afghanistan exit had its problems. Sure, COVID-19 is incredible in its persistence.
But that is mostly window dressing for what the wanderers have already decided. They didn't get all they wanted, so they will switch to the other side. There is no rationality to it. It's just the way it is.
That is the view through the dark lens. Maybe next week I'll try to look at it through rose-colored glasses.
Maybe.
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