Weapon of Choice

 Pictures bring more eyes to the yard.

So, often I try to search out a photo to begin my blog stories.  In doing so, I have made a terrifying discovery.

No matter what topic I choose, no matter how "lefty" I try to be, when I search for photos on Facebook, the vast majority of those I get to choose from are pro-Trump.  Hard to believe from a candidate who has ALWAYS been more unpopular than popular,  

You can discover this too when you pull up the Facebook feeds of people who may only tangentially be your friends, ones whom Facebook's algorithms have decided you don't need to see very often.

You come up with one regrettable conclusion:

Facebook is the Trumpeteer's weapon of choice.

This is not readily apparent to we anit-Trumpers, because between our own unfollows and Facebook's algorithms reinforcing our already set beliefs, we don't always see the madness.

That is why when the people on my side post memes and stories AND FACTS that spell out how horrible and dangerous this President really is, it falls on deaf ears.  If they see our posts at all, we are mere blips on their Facebook radar.  They are awash with anti-Democrat (and anti-Democratic) propaganda, a lot of stuff that we either don't see or only see as blips.

The young have fled Facebook, in no small degree, preferring Instagram, Redditt, Snapchat, and things that are too new and hip for this old guy to even know about.  Some are divided like Facebook, algorithms reinforcing beliefs. Some of these sites are more apolitical than others, but all cater to the niche interests of each participant.

I saw an interview yesterday on MSNBC (center left CORPORATE media) of a reporter who had spent in-depth time with women who had voted for Trump in 2016 but would not vote for him in 2020.  What struck me most about what they said is that they weren't really paying attention to Trump's negatives in 2016, that what they were hearing and seeing on Social media was mostly Trump-positive, and didn't realize until it was too late how bad he really was.  Yeah.  OK.  I thought anyone halfway sentient would recognize from the 80s on what a scumbucket Trump was, but maybe that was just me.  I may not be much, but I do have a highly refined and sensitive CONMAN RADAR.

The point is, social media, which several years ago (e.g., the Arab Spring) I thought would make the world more democratic, has instead fostered division and hatred.  Additionally, I believe that Facebook is now dominated by Trumpeteers (thanx and a hat's tip to Russian bots).

Oh well.  Never give up.  Never surrender.  Beleive, as naive as it may be, that you can eventually reach the decency in people.

Back to my windmill tilts.  

The Trump Premium: Saturday Political Soap Box 251

 The incredibly damning Woodward tape made it irrefutable. To explain it as succinctly as I could, I created this meme/statement -

It's true.

He knew.

He lied.

People Died.

I soon discovered that I was on the right track.  At first, I saw it from my favorite writer, Stephen King.

He knew.

He lied.

190,000 died.

It proved very popular.  I began seeing King's version many places.  Hard to believe his version would take off, and mine wouldn't.  Maybe he has more followers.  I don't know.

But, really, is that fair?

Should we attribute what is, as of writing this, all 195,958* confirmed COVID-19 deaths to Donald Trump?

I mean, I am a major league Donald Trump despiser, but this is a global pandemic, after all.  Some deaths would occur here, no matter how top rate the leadership.

We need to look at what the Trump premium is.  What would be the best estimate at how many more deaths the United States experienced because of Trump's lack of leadership?

Let's start by conceding that it might be fair to assume that the US would have at least a share of the cases based on its proportion of the world's population.  Estimates vary on this, but I think a reasonable percentage would be 4.25%.  That's a little bit of rounding, but not much.

This is based on numbers provided by the Bing COVID-19 tracker.  Please keep in mind this is in constant flux, rising every hour.  As of 9 AM, the global total of confirmed COVID-19 deaths is -

916,237

We then look at that number and take out the number of US deaths, to reconfigure what it would look like with a proportional number of US deaths based on US population -

916,237 - 195,958 = 720,279

Then we take that number, adjust it up to cover what it would be with 4.25% of COVID-19 deaths attributable to the US.

720,279 / 95.75% = 752,250

752,250 * 4.25% = 31,971

31,971**

Our population share of the global COVID-19 deaths would be 31,971.

But let's give Trump the benefit of the doubt.  Even under the right leadership, we are not the best-behaved country on Earth.  We can't have expected to react as well as South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand, or even China.  We just have a bone-deep strain of rugged individualism (politically incorrectly version - selfish pricks -people who value their personal liberty over social responsibility).  So, let's say we behave WORSE than the rest of the world (well, except maybe Brazil) even with the leadership saying and doing the right things.  Let's say, I know this is horrible, but let's say we are TWICE as bad as the rest of the world.  So let's double the number we could expect under good leadership -

31,971 * 2 = 63,942

So, where does that leave us, comparing the number of COVID-19 deaths we have to the number that we might have had if someone like Trump*** wasn't President.

195,938 - 63,942 = 132,016

So, a fairer number to use with Trump, as of Saturday morning at 9AM EST, is 132,016, rounding to 132,000.

So, a more accurate version of what both Stephen and I are trying to say is -

It's true.

He knew.

He lied.

132,000 died.

There.  Doesn't that look better?  That's mot so bad, is it?

Better? Even with a more accurate number, it is...

Mind-numbingly Horrifying

And, to add to the horror, this number changes upward every day.  Americans are still dying of COVID-19, at the rate of about 1,000 a day.

I will not let you forget this, Trumpeteers.  I will update and re-post every day on Facebook, the Trumpeteer's weapon of choice. And every day that goes by that you continue to support him, it becomes more your responsibility than his.

I wish I didn't have to be this way.  But too much is at stake to do otherwise.

*that is the reported number on the Bing COVID-19 tracker at 9AM Saturday, September 12th.  Tragically, that number is still rising by a thousand or more every day.

**all numbers are rounded to the nearest whole number.

***just kidding.  There is no one like Trump.  I cannot imagine a worse leader to have at this time.  I always knew he was incompetent, narcissistic, and racist, but the Woodward tapes prove something in addition to that - he's evil.  No other way to put it.  Sorry. The truth hurts.

My Favorite Genres 1: Science Fiction

 

What are your favorites genres to read, watch, or hear?

We all have our favorite kinds of storytelling and our favorite ways to receive them. 

Me?  I like all three (read/watch/hear).  But what I prefer may vary from format to format.

Here are some of my favorites.  To voice some of your own, please comment here or on Facebook/Twitter, and/or go to my Facebook group, Polls R Us.

1) Science Fiction

No big surprise there. I like to read science fiction and watch on TV and the movies. Not big on science fiction audio or podcasts.

Science fiction is a very diverse field, with a wide variety of sub-genres. Some of my favorites -

Alternate History - omg, do I love this stuff!  It's probably my single most favorite thing to read.  Prominent examples include The Man in the High Castle by Phillip K Dick, The Plot Against America by Phillip Roth, multiple novels by Harry Turtledove.  Television shows that play with this theme that I love include Sliders, Fringe, Counterpart, Timeless, and Legends of Tomorrow.

Corollary themes to Alternate History include the Multiverse concept and time travel. Alternate histories may or may not include these ideas, but the main idea is to present a what-if imagining if history turned out differently.

Near Future -  I like stories that extrapolate where we may be going in the near future if certain trends/threads are followed.  Many of these are dystopian and/or cautionary, but they don't have to be.  I love classics like 1984 by George Orwell and Brave New World by Aldous Huxley. One of my favorite books of all time is The Stand by Stephen King, with his vision of a world experiencing a deadly pandemic.  But I also like more optimistic visions of the future, including Star Trek.

Time Travel - wait! Didn't we already cover this one? Well, kind of.  But the bulk of time travel stories don't really try to tell alternate histories.  Some go to the future.  Some deal with more personal stories (Somewhere In Time, Time After Time).  Many are self-absorbed in time paradoxes.  The most annoying try to demonstrate how immutable and hard to change time is (11/22/63 by Stephen King).  I like some of these, but I like them less than the alternate histories.

Space Opera - large scale, melodramatic, epic scale, sometimes mythic in their structure.  The very best example is the Star Wars saga.  Often, they can have a western overtone, or at other times have similarities to high fantasy (things being centered on quests or versions of royal families).  They have to be well done for me to enjoy.

Hard Scifi - this is science fiction that bends over backward to suggest a scientific rationale for what it's doing.  Some examples I've read include Foundation by Issac Asimov, World War Z by Max Brooks, and Rendezvous With Rama by Arthur C. Clarke.  Movies I've seen in this group include 2001:A Space Oddysey and The Martian (both also books).  I'm more selective with this group.  As a general rule, I don't pick these up unless the theme and/or author sound interesting to me.

First Contact - the aliens are here.  Sometimes for good, sometimes not. E. T.?  Close Encounters of the 3rd Kind? - two of the good kind.  V? Independence Day?  Alien?  Oh, just the start of the bad kind. Movies of this theme are legion!  My favorite is the original Invasion of the Body Snatchers. "They're here!  You're next!"

Don't mess with Mother Nature/Science -  the first and one of the greatest works of this type is Frankenstein by Mark Shelley.  These range from atomic radiation monsters (Godzilla) to ecological disasters (Outbreak, Soylent Green), and can't forget the new rage - zombie movies/stories (once again - World War Z (hey, some of these overlap!), Night of the Living Zombies, and The Walking Dead.  Armageddon/apocalyptic themes abound here, but they can also be in the other subgenres, especially near future.

Military/War SciFi - Starship Troopers by Robert Heinlein.  That's about all I got.  Maybe the movie Enemy.  I would say that military SciFi is my least favorite kind.

Okay, I meant for this to cover more genres, but I got carried away.  It took me four separate writing sessions to get this far!

The solution?

I'll make this into a series!

Up next time - fantasy!

At a Crossroads: Saturday Political Soap Box 250

 

Well, here I am.  At my 250th Saturday Political Soap Box.  My aim was to discuss issues in a forum where people knew that it was going to get political right from the title, so if that wasn't their bag, man, they could skip it.

The goal wasn't to post scholarly articles, heavy with extensive research.  I simply don't have that kind of time, and I don't know what value it would bring.  Most believe what they're going to believe, regardless of the evidence put forward to them.

I don't put in a lot of links to different articles.  Again, not that kind of blog.  And links don't necessarily build your case.  Hell, I'm sure Qanon people use links...to God knows what, but I bet they use them.

This does not mean that I try to post falsehoods.  Most of what I post are opinions, but I do everything I can to make them fact-based.

Case in point:  Some people are sniping at the edges of the corroborated story that Trump disparaged World War I soldiers at the time of his scheduled visit to an important memorial ceremony, where he called them "losers' and "suckers."

Why the snipe?

Some noted that the story stated the reason he did not wind up attending was that he didn't want to mess up his hair in the rain and that it wasn't important to him to honor the American military dead in that way. Other sources indicated that the weather was such that a helicopter couldn't take off, and that's why he didn't go.

Big deal.  Both could be true.  He could have been mouthing off that he didn't want to go, and there may have been some kind of helicopter advisory.  They didn't try to drive, and he made no extraordinary efforts, efforts every other leader who showed up made, efforts that I fully believe every other President would have tried to make.

Every story has differences based on personal perspective.  Don't believe me?  Check the Gospels.  They have contradictions between the Gospel storytellers, and no Christian is stomping about saying they, therefore, are not true.

Some question the story because the multiple sources verifying what Trump said are anonymous.  Well, good golly, welcome to Journalism 101.  It's hard to find stories that don't have some anonymous sources.  Any ever hear of Watergate and Deep Throat?  It's the journalist's job to verify and confirm his sources.  So, here's a shocker - MOST JOURNALISTS ARE ETHICAL AND TRYING TO DO THE RIGHT THIMG.  Most are still trying to follow the laws and ethics of journalism.

This story has been confirmed by multiple journalists and sources.  The Atlantic reporter who did this story, Jefferey Goldberg, is a qualified, dedicated journalist, who has a record of competence and caution.  And he is not an outlier.  The record of Trump's disdain for the military is long and clearly established, both in his public utterances and in journalist's stories that use both public and anonymous sources.

Some just don't like whatever news source a story comes from.  The Atlantic?  Liberal rag!  The Washington Post and the New York Times?  Anti-Trump hysterics! MSNBC and TYT?  Socialist mouthpieces!

Ok, how about Fox News?

Yes, Fox News.  They have also corroborated that Trump says disparaging things about our military vets, including things he said to disparage Vietnam Vets and what a waste it was to look for MIA soldiers.

It doesn't stop.  

I post again and again about the foul things Trump does, and it means nothing to his cadre of Trumpeteers.

If you look at the history of my Saturday Political Soap Box posts, you will see they have become sharper and more strident over time, less about issues, and more about character.  I have used the tag Trumpocalypse more times than I can count. My anti-Trump warnings go back to at least 2015.

No matter what happens, I know of very few people that have shifted in position.  People I know and care about refuse to get woke.

I'm depressed, and I'm sick of it, but I cannot stop trying.

Too much is at stake,

I must keep tilting at windmills.

Maybe soon, with the prayed for election of Biden/Harris, I can set aside the anger and vitriol, and concentrate on the issues important to us all - global warming, the income gap, public schools, systematic racism, universal health care - just to name a few.

I long for that day.  I really do.

History of the Trap Vol. 2 - Chapter One: Justice Trapped Part 3

 

3

 

I won’t dwell on the trial, Doctor Duncan.  I know I need to pick up the pace.  Soon, I will have to have my own trial, and you will want to know what to say about me at it. I realize what you have to say will be very important in how I’m prosecuted and what the outcome may be.   I should care what you decide, but I don’t.  Not really.  I just want to tell my story like I promised I would, and for you to leave everyone else alone like you promised you would.

Mark was convicted for his assault on Wilbur Jones.  He repudiated his confession to Lisa’s murder as a tactic to intimidate me.  “I was trying to get Lance to own up to his complicity in Lisa’s murder and find out what he was doing hanging out near the men’s locker room,” he stated at the trial.

Fortunately, even though there was not enough for a sure conviction of Mark for his other crimes, there was even less there for me to be credibly accused of them.

What about Robert Pelley, who was there in the locker room witnessing Mark's murder of  Mrs. Forsyth?  He claimed he wasn’t there.  After I ran out of the men’s athletic storage room, I had no idea what Robert Pelley did. I was too preoccupied with trying to save my own skin. 

He did not join Mark Granite in his pursuit of me, and Wilbur Jones and his friends did not see Robert.  There was no physical evidence to tie him to the scene, and Robert’s buddies, Walter Drayton and Stevey Tubbs, alibied him as tossing footballs near the football field during the time of the murder.

At the time, I was just happy that Mark Granite had been convicted of something.  His reign of terror was at an end.  Or so I thought.

 

Rockin' Flower Wednesday Wanderings; Keeping Your Distance 47

This is an artificial flower in Benjamin's study.  It rocks, sways back and forth 24/7.  I tried to upload a video that would show you this,  and I failed.  I couldn't figure out how to transfer it from my phone to the blog.   Probably if I gave it enough time I could figure it out...but, oh, well.  Not today.

So, trust me.  It be rockin'.

How are y'all feeling this glorious Wednesday?

Truth in numbers:

The number of reported cases in Georgia has been declining, looking at seven-day numbers.  The past three weeks have gone from 19,826 to 17,392 to 14,218.  I feel like this is due to - more mask-wearing in the state, and to fewer tests being administered.  There has not been a substantial decline in positivity rate, each day usually hovering between 10 and 8% - you need to get to below 5% for contact tracing to be effective.

The number of deaths has remained high, 498 to 426 to 476.  Deaths are a lagging indicator, so if cases continue to decline, maybe deaths will too.

Where are the cases?

Cases across the country, including Georgia, are increasing most at college campuses and public/private schools.  This is disturbing to me, as Benjamin's college is no exception.  The University fought valiantly, with mask and social distancing restrictions.  They have done a lot of things right.  BUT that did not stop them from developing hundreds of positive tests.  Students go off-campus and participate in large house parties and other crowded social events, without wearing masks or giving a damn about anyone else (no, Benjamin does not participate in these).  The college President has had to intervene and threaten those who participated with disciplinary action, including the possibility of suspension.  Since saying that, the number of positive cases at Georgia College has declined tremendously.

There are cases in public schools.  Alison's office has had positive cases, including one recently of someone who worked with her, assisting her department,  I am quite angry.  Why?  MASKS ARE NOT REQUIRED AND NOT EVERY ONE WEARS ONE.  

Should schools be opened?  If the proper measures are taken, including mask-wearing, social distancing, and contact tracing, yes, I think it's worth trying.  THAT'S NOT WHAT MOST SCHOOLS IN THIS AREA ARE DOING

I am so angry at the anti-maskers right now.  I can't even begin to articulate it without losing control of my emotions.

Well, we're all going to get it eventually

You've got to be kidding me.  That's the attitude of some around me, and it's disgusting.

You really want to shoot for herd immunity and leave some TWO MILLION Americans dead?  

You really want to risk that many people on a strategy that may not work because we know NOTHING about reinfection or how long immunity may last?

Yes, it's true.  Many get mild symptoms.  80% or more never have to go to the hospital.  And of those, only a fraction go to ICU.  And 2 to 4% who contract the virus die.  Are those acceptable numbers to you?  

I mean, really.  Are you a Vegas gambler?  Maybe you can play the odds.  Maybe your family will get it and they'll all be mild cases.  Is that what you're willing to do?

ARE YOU WILLING TO PLAY COVID-ROULETTE WITH YOUR FAMILY'S LIVES???

Let me answer for myself - 

Hell No!

Double Triple Hell No!

But I don't get a choice.  Alison and Benjamin are both subject to whatever anti-masker covidiot that comes near them.

I hate their attitude - Do not interfere with my right to infect you!

I apologize. I meant to cover more topics.  It's just hard to do when the lives of your family members are at stake.

Special for the OHC Writer's Guild

 I regret to inform you that I am resigning from any leadership position in the OHC Writer's Guild.

This is a recognition of an already undergoing reality.  I have not led well for quite some time, and I do not want my lack of proper leadership to further hurt the organization.

I do not wish to the Guild disappear, but I don't think I'm the proper person to guide the group to better health,

I would like to continue as a regular member and assist where I can, but I can no longer be in charge of arranging meetings, and in leading those meetings.

I am passionate about writing and look forward to sharing my writings, and reading/helping with other writers.

If you wish to take the reigns of leadership, please see Carla Cornett King, Executive Director of the OHC.  You may wish to also coordinate with the Waycross Ware County Library.

I love you all,  Starting this up and working with the group has been one of the great joys of my life.

Sincerely,

Tom Strait