The Trump Premium: Saturday Political Soap Box 251

 The incredibly damning Woodward tape made it irrefutable. To explain it as succinctly as I could, I created this meme/statement -

It's true.

He knew.

He lied.

People Died.

I soon discovered that I was on the right track.  At first, I saw it from my favorite writer, Stephen King.

He knew.

He lied.

190,000 died.

It proved very popular.  I began seeing King's version many places.  Hard to believe his version would take off, and mine wouldn't.  Maybe he has more followers.  I don't know.

But, really, is that fair?

Should we attribute what is, as of writing this, all 195,958* confirmed COVID-19 deaths to Donald Trump?

I mean, I am a major league Donald Trump despiser, but this is a global pandemic, after all.  Some deaths would occur here, no matter how top rate the leadership.

We need to look at what the Trump premium is.  What would be the best estimate at how many more deaths the United States experienced because of Trump's lack of leadership?

Let's start by conceding that it might be fair to assume that the US would have at least a share of the cases based on its proportion of the world's population.  Estimates vary on this, but I think a reasonable percentage would be 4.25%.  That's a little bit of rounding, but not much.

This is based on numbers provided by the Bing COVID-19 tracker.  Please keep in mind this is in constant flux, rising every hour.  As of 9 AM, the global total of confirmed COVID-19 deaths is -

916,237

We then look at that number and take out the number of US deaths, to reconfigure what it would look like with a proportional number of US deaths based on US population -

916,237 - 195,958 = 720,279

Then we take that number, adjust it up to cover what it would be with 4.25% of COVID-19 deaths attributable to the US.

720,279 / 95.75% = 752,250

752,250 * 4.25% = 31,971

31,971**

Our population share of the global COVID-19 deaths would be 31,971.

But let's give Trump the benefit of the doubt.  Even under the right leadership, we are not the best-behaved country on Earth.  We can't have expected to react as well as South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand, or even China.  We just have a bone-deep strain of rugged individualism (politically incorrectly version - selfish pricks -people who value their personal liberty over social responsibility).  So, let's say we behave WORSE than the rest of the world (well, except maybe Brazil) even with the leadership saying and doing the right things.  Let's say, I know this is horrible, but let's say we are TWICE as bad as the rest of the world.  So let's double the number we could expect under good leadership -

31,971 * 2 = 63,942

So, where does that leave us, comparing the number of COVID-19 deaths we have to the number that we might have had if someone like Trump*** wasn't President.

195,938 - 63,942 = 132,016

So, a fairer number to use with Trump, as of Saturday morning at 9AM EST, is 132,016, rounding to 132,000.

So, a more accurate version of what both Stephen and I are trying to say is -

It's true.

He knew.

He lied.

132,000 died.

There.  Doesn't that look better?  That's mot so bad, is it?

Better? Even with a more accurate number, it is...

Mind-numbingly Horrifying

And, to add to the horror, this number changes upward every day.  Americans are still dying of COVID-19, at the rate of about 1,000 a day.

I will not let you forget this, Trumpeteers.  I will update and re-post every day on Facebook, the Trumpeteer's weapon of choice. And every day that goes by that you continue to support him, it becomes more your responsibility than his.

I wish I didn't have to be this way.  But too much is at stake to do otherwise.

*that is the reported number on the Bing COVID-19 tracker at 9AM Saturday, September 12th.  Tragically, that number is still rising by a thousand or more every day.

**all numbers are rounded to the nearest whole number.

***just kidding.  There is no one like Trump.  I cannot imagine a worse leader to have at this time.  I always knew he was incompetent, narcissistic, and racist, but the Woodward tapes prove something in addition to that - he's evil.  No other way to put it.  Sorry. The truth hurts.