Final Update
In September 2020, I started using MATH to answer how many COVID deaths can we really hold Trump responsible for?
The following takes you through the math and updates the numbers to TWO WEEKS after the inauguration of Joe Biden. This allows for two weeks for the time it might take for deaths to occur in infections that began by Inauguration day.
This is what's published in the original Trump Premium post but with numbers updated through February 2nd:
The incredibly damning Woodward tape made it irrefutable. To explain it as succinctly as I could, I created this meme/statement -
It's true.
He knew.
He lied.
People Died.
I soon discovered that I was on the right track. At first, I saw it from my favorite writer, Stephen King.
He knew.
He lied.
447,715 died.
It proved very popular. I began seeing King's version many places. Hard to believe his version would take off, and mine wouldn't. Maybe he has more followers. I don't know.
But, really, is that fair?
Should we attribute what is, as of writing this, all 447,715* confirmed COVID-19 deaths to Donald Trump?
I mean, I am a major league Donald Trump despiser, but this is a global pandemic, after all. Some deaths would occur here, no matter how top rate the leadership.
We need to look at what the Trump premium is. What would be the best estimate at how many more deaths the United States experienced because of Trump's lack of leadership?
Let's start by conceding that it might be fair to assume that the US would have at least a share of the cases based on its proportion of the world's population. Estimates vary on this, but I think a reasonable percentage would be 4.25%. That's a little bit of rounding, but not much.
This is based on numbers provided by the Bing COVID-19 tracker. Please keep in mind this is in constant flux, rising every hour. As of 8 AM, the global total of confirmed COVID-19 deaths is -
2,243,638
We then look at that number and take out the number of US deaths to reconfigure what it would look like with a proportional number of US deaths based on US population -
2,243,638 - 447,715 = 1,795,923
Then we take that number, adjust it up to cover what it would be with 4.25% of COVID-19 deaths attributable to the US.
1,795,923 / 95.75% = 1,875,638
1,875,638 * 4.25% = 79,715
79,715**
Our population share of the global COVID-19 deaths would be 79,715.
But let's give Trump the benefit of the doubt. Even under the right leadership, we are not the best-behaved country on Earth. We can't have expected to react as well as South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand, or even China. We just have a bone-deep strain of rugged individualism (politically incorrectly version - selfish pricks -people who value their personal liberty over social responsibility). So, let's say we behave WORSE than the rest of the world (well, except maybe Brazil), even with the leadership saying and doing the right things. Let's say, I know this is horrible, but let's say we are TWICE as bad as the rest of the world. So let's double the number we could expect under good leadership -
79,715 * 2 = 159,430
So, where does that leave us, comparing the number of COVID-19 deaths we have to the number that we might have had if someone like Trump*** wasn't President.
447,715 - 159,430 = 288,285
So, a more accurate version of what both Stephen and I are trying to say is -
It's true.
He knew.
He lied.
288,285 died.
There. Doesn't that look better? That's not so bad, is it?
Better? Even with a more accurate number, it is...
Mind-numbingly Horrifying
I will not let you forget this, Trumpeteers. Over 74 million Americans were able to ignore this and vote for him anyway. I'm shocked. I know we live in a partisan era of divided media, but - my God, HOW COULD YOU?
For those itching for me to keep the same stat on Biden - I will. I will not begin right away, but I will give him a chance to try to right this leaky ship as much as possible. Trump has left with no vaccination distribution plan in place, and our slow reaction has allowed several more highly infectious variants to emerge.
Therefore I am giving it a one month rest, a period to allow for a transition from Trump to Biden, and for that month, I will not accumulate a premium on either one.
I will begin the Biden Premium on March 2nd. I do not expect it to be zero - we are in a real mess. BUT...Biden does KNOW. Biden will not LIE. He'll tell it to us straight.
*that is the reported number on the Bing COVID-19 tracker at 8AM Wednesday, February 3rd. Tragically, that number is still rising by a thousand or more every day.
**all numbers are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***just kidding. There is no one like Trump. I cannot imagine a worse leader to have at this time. I always knew he was incompetent, narcissistic, and racist, but the Woodward tapes prove something in addition to that - he's evil. No other way to put it. Sorry. The truth hurts.
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