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| Meme was for a specific state [rimary, but of course, it holds true for November 6. |
It's time for the speculatron again!
Time for my often wildly inaccurate predictions of our political future!
In fairness, I have not been entirely wrong in the past. My predictions are hurt by continually underestimating how many people can be suckered by a narcissistic con man who is totally unfit for any public office. I predicted a narrow victory for Clinton winning by 2 to 5 percentage points (which she got) but who knew, besides the Russians and the Trump insiders, that the electoral college would break in such an ugly way?
So, here is my initial prediction for the 2018 election :
The Blue Wave will be the Blue Splash
Okay, my Democratic Party-inclined friends. You can vilify me if you want to. But I have to start with a major unfortunate assumption - Republicans, even those who dislike Trump, will come home to roost. I watched them do it in 2016. Despite everything we see happening, they will do it again in 2018.
That'a not enough to win everywhere, but it's enough to hold the profoundly red gerrymandered districts that dominate the House of Representatives.
Right now the House stands at 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats (this includes 6 vacancies that I have apportioned to the party that last held the seat). At this point in time, I believe that the Democrats will gain....
20 seats!!!
Wow! That's a huge move! That would leave the House breakdown at...
220 Republicans, 215 Democrats
Close, but no cigars. And with the House being a majority rule chamber, they will continue to control the agenda, and all the committees of Congress.
The Senate composition, with Independents assigned to whom they caucus with, is:
51 Republicans, 49 Democrats
The problem the Democrats have here is that 26 of the Senate seats up are held by Democrats, some of them in states that voted for Trump. That's 26 out of 35, up a whopping 75%. They are going to have to achieve phenomenal success to hold their own. I have always detested the Republican Lite strategy that many of the Blue Dog Democrats run on, and I fear it may be a big losing strategy this year.
Translation: Democrats can have a reasonably successful midterm and still not gain the paltry two seats they need for control.
My current prediction is, that after the midterms the Senate composition will be:
53 Republicans, 47 Democrats
That means the Republicans will still be in charge of things. It used to be that the Senate allowed great influence by minority party members. This is not true anymore. Senator McConnell runs as roughshod over the Democrats in the Senate as Paul Ryan (or his replacement) in the House. There will be no check on Supreme court nominees or any other nominee for that matter.
Mueller could have a tape recording of Trump giving away the store to Putin, and the Republicans will not move to do anything about it. No conspiracy, no crime, no belligerency or trampling of the constitution will go checked.
The autocracy will move forward.
The good news? There will be more Progressive Democrats, and they will continue to advocate the only agenda that can save the nation - Medicare For All, a living wage, combatting global warming, increased access to higher education, voting rights, civil rights, the rule of law.
The bad news? The Republicans that survive the splash will be the batcrap crazier ones. Expect greater insanity and greater tolerance and defense of whatever Trump does.
What could change this? The economy is deteriorating, especially for the middle class, but it is happening too slowly to have much of an effect by November. The Mueller probe could accelerate fast enough to make it more transparent how foul this President really is. Democrats might accidentally hit the right themes in the campaign (I wish I could tell you what those are, but I'm just not sure).
At the same time, Trump could start a war that rallies enough people for the short time it takes for the election. He will whip up hatred and bigotry and fear, and I can't promise how all that will work out.
Not everyone believes there will be a blue wave. Look at this meme below to see what kind of cranky trash is being shared by the Trumpeteers _
Will the midterms prove this tragically true?
I hope not.
I hope I'm wrong.
Am I trying to pull my Trump-opposing friends out of complacency?
Why, yes. Yes, I am.
It's going to take every single one of us to stop this tragedy I predicted from happening.
EVERYONE SINGLE ONE OF YOU HAS TO VOTE!
NO EXCEPTIONS!
NO EXCUSES!
ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING IS AT STAKE!
VOTE LIKE OUR DEMOCRACY DEPENDS ON IT!
BECAUSE IT DOES!
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