It's been awhile since I had a Saturday Political Soap Box, almost a month ago, when Damn Strait announced his run for Congress. Not there haven't been political posts - I've done a good number during the weekdays - I just keep forgetting that Saturday Political Soap Box is a brand name and don't literally have to be written on Saturday. My change in schedule, due to my semi-retirement, has changed up the time I'm writing, and Saturdays have been busy with other things.
I've been reading a great book by the wonderful writer Rick Pearlstein, The Invisible Bridge: The Fall of Nixon and The Rise of Reagan. This is a an era where I was already politically aware and paying attention, but it is interesting to see it put back into context. About a third of the way through this big book, there two big surprises to me.
The first is that there is a remarkable similarity between my childhood and Reagan's, that has to do with an overactive imagination in the mid-elementary years, our peer's reaction to it, and what we did in the aftermath. I intend to write about this in more depth in a blog post soon.
The second was the pace of Watergate. I am up to early Fall 1973 in the book, and it is amazing to me how much had come out by that time about Nixon's involvement in Watergate, and how corrupt and vile the whole thing was. Several major Watergate conspirators had already spoken before Congress, Woodward & Bernstein had published many details in the Post, and it looked Nixon was caught. But it was still another almost full year, not until August 1974, that the threat of imminent impeachment and his fateful meeting with three prominent Republican Senators, brought Nixon to resignation.
I did not recognize this at the time I was going through it, mostly because I realized Nixon was guilty from very early on. Nixon was a dishonest crook, a paranoid, a dark and brooding man, and I thought everyone knew it. Why was this such a big surprise? I had lost faith that enough others would recognize this, so the resistance was not surprising to me.
What does this have to with current events? It means to me, the investigation into the Russian connection to Trump seems almost overwhelming to me, and I didn't see how much longer it could go on before Trump was out of office, most likely by resignation, but also possibly impeachment or removal via the 25th Amendment. If anyone were to ask me before reading Pearlstein's book, I would say that Trump didn't have months or years, but only a matter of weeks.
Now, I'm not so sure. Yes, news seems at a quicker pace than during Watergate, but that may be illusory, and just the way we remember things when the past is telescoped. Really, there were frequent and devastating headlines about Watergate and Nixon's corruption. They just took a longer time than you would suspect to sink in.
So it may be a longer time than I thought, maybe a year or more, before it finally sinks Trump. Especially if Trump hunkers down and decides to fight impeachment, or he grants strategic pardons, or fires Mueller, it makes it hard to tell how long this will take.
Trump starts with a smaller popularity base than Nixon. Trump won with an electoral college majority, but lost the popular vote by almost three million. Nixon won with one of the largest margins in American history, both the popular vote and the electoral college. It took a long time to erode that. But it did erode, By the summer of '74, most polls show that if the election were held that day, McGovern would have won.
This may go quicker because Trump is already at a remarkably low 35% or lower approval rating. This sounds like we're approaching a done deal level about his survivability, but it is disconcerting to note that Hillary Clinton still does not poll at beating Trump. Her margin of support has also gone down. I worry until some of those who voted for Trump admit they made a horrible mistake and that they should have voted for Clinton instead. I won't name names, but I have specific people in mind, in my own circle of friends AND co-workers who I am waiting to hear this confession from. I know. I am waiting in vain.
We may be in for many more shocks before enough people wake up to be able to move past Trump, to accept his resignation, removal or impeachment, without degenerating into civil conflict. Yes, some may fuss regardless, some may become violent regardless, some may continue to vote for con men and charlatans, but hopefully the massive numbers will be there so that we can move on.
Given all this, if this is a Speculatron, I must make my predictions, realizing how wrong they can be.
So here goes -
I still think he'll be gone by the end of the year, most likely by resignation. If he doesn't resign, then it may be by Senate Trial in the Spring of 2018.
Vice President Pence is involved, but he may survive as part of a compromise to get Trump to resign, and to get America to move onto other things. That compromise will involve pardoning Trump, and, at a minimum, members of Trump's family. Pence, of course, will be an absolutely horrible President, and should be able to work better with Congress to get some truly monstrous stuff passed.
The Democrats will come within a hair of controlling the House in 2018, and the Republican margin in the Senate will be about the same.
The damage that will be dome will be considerable. The only advantage will be at least Pence is not clinically insane.
In 2020, the Progressive Majority will take hold, transforming American politics for the next couple of generations.
That last prediction is not just a Speculatron. It is a hope and a prayer.
It is our only chance at survival.
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