So, Tom, any changes since your last Speculatron (word patent pending)?
Well, not too much.
House
In August, I predicted the Republicans would hold the house with a 5 seat edge (223 to 212, with 218 needed for a majority.
I still think that is in the realm of possibility, but everything would have to break the Trumpian way. The country would have to be a lot more intolerant and fear-based than even I think it is. So, yeah, this could still happen.
I'm a little bit more optimistic now. I think the Democrats will retake the house with a 10 seat edge (228 to 207). There are just too many districts where Trumpian support is marginal at best. Trump's extremism and racist tone are attracting and energizing his base supporters, but it is also repulsing more people in the middle.
Senate
In August, I predicted that the Republicans would gain two seats (53 to 47, including Independents that caucus with either the Democrats or the Republicans).
I remain pessimistic about the Senate. They could lose three or four seats instead. Democratic incumbents in red states, like Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and Joe Donelly in Indiana, are in grave danger. Many of them have tried to stake grounds as Republican Lite, which I think is ALWAYS a dangerous strategy. Why vote for a pretend Republican when you can have the real thing? I would love beyond measure to see Beto O'Rouke beat Ted Cruz in Texas, but that is no sure thing.
If the Blue Wave is strong enough, it is possible that Democrats could do slightly better. Here's my most intriguing possibility -
The Senate winds up a 50 - 50 tie, which is then broken by the Republican Vice President (currently Mike Pence). BUT Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Independent (nominally- one time she lost the Republican primary, and then won by doing the Joe Lieberman thing) has an unprecedented fit of conscientiousness and decides to caucus with the Democrats. Unlikely? Maybe. But you never know.
State and Local
I'm not going to make Georgia predictions for local candidates. I pray Lisa Ring wins. I don't want to say anything else about that. Greg O'Driscoll would be fantastic in the State House. 'Nuff said.
Stacey Abrams deserve to win. In a fair election, her odds are better than even. But she's running against the referee. On my social media feed, my Trumpian friends have reserved their most vile venom for her. I wonder why.
Andrew Gillum looks poised to win the Governor's race in Florida. What a refreshing break that will be from the white-collar criminal con-man Rick Scott (who should also lose his Senate race)! Governor Gillum should become a Democratic superstar, and I welcome that.
Across the country, the Democrats should gain in Governorships and State Legislators. It will be wonderful to restore a better sense of balance throughout the country.
The Bad News
No matter who controls Congress, Trump will use the outcome to his advantage. If he retains control, you can kiss Mueller goodbye. It will confirm his approach of racism, sexism, and hate. The remnants of Obamacare will be destroyed, with nothing to replace it. The debt will mount, and programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will be under constant siege. Global warming will accelerate, endangering the entire planet. Treaties will be broken and allies offended, while dictators get lavished with love. Things will be as ugly as can be, uglier than your worst nightmares. I'm not trying to scare. It's just the facts.
If the Democrats should take the House, Trump will have much of his most extreme agenda stuck. They'll be plenty of hearings and investigations, and RIGHTLY SO. Will Trump be impeached? He should be, but I don't know that he will be. What he will do is turn into Harry Truman, and rail against Congress 24/7, and blame them for EVERYTHING, especially the stuff that Trump himself does wrong. When the economy slumps (which, given the deficit, trades wars, rising personal debt, automation, and the business cycle, seems inevitable), he will use the Congress as a whipping boy, blaming the collapse he created on the Democrats, and try to demonize his way to re-election in 2020.
If the Democrats take the House, it will provide an essential check on extremism. It will not turn the world into puppy dogs and rainbows. It will still be a very, very scary world, and will remain so until the worldwide trend towards authoritarian fascism is finally reversed.
The Good News
Whatever the exact outcome, the number of Progressives in Congress should increase. And that is a beautiful portent for the future. It means we're slowly moving closer to Medicare For All, a living wage, affordable college, checking climate change and creating green jobs, a strong military acting as a force for good in the world, and a place of greater civil rights, kindness and caring.
It can't come fast enough.
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