Last year, most of the Republican candidates were of such low quality, that they were often referred to as being part of a clown car. This year, like in the movie Jaws, somebody's going to have to get a bigger mode of transportation!
Yes, I know clown cars are amusing because of how many clowns can come out of them. But the Republican field is getting to the point where even that exaggeration is not possible.
Therefore, somebody's gonna have to swap out the clown car for a clown 747!
And 2016 MAY include some Democrats as well!
So here's my handicapping for as many of them as my little brain can carry information on -
DEMOCRATS
The Likely Nominee
Hilary Clinton - she has the most certain path to the Presidency as any candidate in the race. We are way, way past due for a female President, and she is supremely qualified and capable of serving in that capacity. As long as she remains healthy, and can demonstrate that she has the drive and desire to do the job, I don't she can be stopped by anybody but herself. Many elements of the media and the right wing will do everything they can to turn her into Darth Clinton, but it will only bolster those who had no intention of voting for her in the first place.
The Number One Challenger
Bernie Sanders - US Senator from Vermont, Bernie's honest and direct approach, policy based and big money free, is starting to catch fire and show momentum in the polls. Can he be beat Hilary? Everything else being equal, probably not. But he is saying important things, and at this point, I am proud to be one of his supporters.
The Other Contenders
Martin O' Malley - former Governor of Maryland, he has some liberal credentials, but not the charisma, strength and boldness of Bernie Sanders. Recent events in Baltimore and Maryland are undercutting the case he is trying to make.
Lincoln Chaffee - party label wanderer and silver spoon, this former Republican Senator and Independent Governor from Rhode Island, so far seems to have as his sole purpose the criticizing and undermining of Hilary Clinton.
Jim Webb - former US Senator from Virginia and Secretary of the Navy, he may have some contributions to make on the foreign policy discussion, but does not seem capable of emerging from the pack.
Prominent Bench Players
The two following will not get in unless Hilary stumbles very, very badly.
Joe Biden - Vice President of the United States, and the person who I think is the most qualified to run this country. Despite his reputation for casual speaking, he is very smart and very capable. And he cares deeply about the average American.
Elizabeth Warren - the most important figure on the political scene today. She more than anyone else represents the new politics that is emerging in this country. Whether she runs or not, her views will rightly shape the entire debate.
REPUBLICANS
The Likely Nominee
John Kasich - current Governor of Ohio, he is my front runner to win the nomination. Yes, I know polls don't reflect that now, but this is the Speculatron, remember? What good would it be if I didn't take chances? To have a prayer of winning, the Republicans have to shore up their efforts in the industrial Midwest. He is a tad more sane than some of the other Republican candidates. Of course, in the Republican primaries, sanity may not be the virtue that I think it is.
The Next Best Bets
Jeb Bush - the former President's brother. Also another former President's son. Some thought he was the smarter brother, but he is quickly making many question that. I can think of nothing more depressing than a another Bush/Clinton race, a real killer to our already under siege democracy. But he's got money and a lot of support from big shots, so he could bull his way to the nomination.
Scott Walker - Governor of Wisconsin. His record is absolutely atrocious, and he will be lucky not to be indicted for past campaign violations, but this is the Republican Party and there is no accounting for taste. He is the favored candidate of the Koch brothers, and thanks to Citizen United, having a billionaire buddy means a lot. His one claim to fame is his vilification of unions and public workers, trying to destroy the very foundations of the middle class, and he survived a recall effort. Thanks, Wisconsin.
Marco Rubio - US Senator from Florida. First, he'll have to win the Florida-off against Jeb Bush. Look, my own opinion is he's not very bright. But time will tell. His name does make the basis for a great pool game, though.
The Longshots
Chris Christie - Governor of New Jersey. My Mama told me that bullies never win, so I'm hoping that's true. More likely to be in jail than to be President.
Others include Bobby Jindal (Governor of Louisiana), George Pataki (former Governor of New York) and Lindsay Graham (US Senator from South Carolina). Of this group, although I rarely agree with Lindsay Graham, I do admire his saying what he really believes and polls be damned.
The Pray they Never Become President Group
Rand Paul - US Senator from Kentucky. Yes, some of his faux-libertarian positions appeal to some progressives, I find him dangerous and reprehensible. His positions shift to suit his needs, and he has very thin skin.
Mike Huckabee - I used to like this former Governor of Arkansas, even though disliking his politics. Not no more. His fake piousness repulses me, and his recent mis-steps and brushes with religious hypocrites should further remove from contention. He used to give the appearance of being somewhat caring. I see none of that now.
Carly Fiorina - the CEO who virtually destroyed Hewlett Packard. Really, Republicans? How is she a candidate for President? Oh. It's the Hilary thing. She can say awful things about Hilary without being accused of being sexist. Well played, Republicans. Scummy, but well played.
Dr. Ben Carson - gifted surgeon and motivational speaker. Unfortunately, not a good Presidential candidate, or someone who could be President. The most crazy, bat-crap right wing of all the candidates except ......
Bringer of the Apocalypse
Ted Cruz - Cuban/Canadian US Senator from Texas. The Senate, Republican and Democrat alike, almost to single person, despise him with every fiber of their being. He doesn't care about this country, He is willing to go to any extreme to make his point. Shut the government and bring on economic Armageddon? Why not? If it gets you a few good head shots and puts your smiling Grandpa Munster mug on the front page, who cares who gets hurt?
Yes, there are some Republican contenders I left out. It's hard to see all their faces inside the clown 747. But if, for example, you think that Donald Trump is a serious contender, then let me get you psychiatric help post haste.
UPDATE: A quick review of this after I posted it shows I left out Rick Sanctorum (deliberately misspelled for this pompous former US Senator from Pennsylvania) and Rick Perry (former 'can't remember a list of three things' Governor of the independent nation of Texas (well, independent until they want disaster relief)). But I'm afraid this year they're like Pokemon - you want to catch 'em all, but sometimes it's just so damn hard!
That's the shape of things right now. For those brave few who like to read these sort of things, see you for the update in the Fall!
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