Election to 270 #1: Sort of Live Blog 5

 7:20 AM

I'll probably keep this up until most major news sources show Joe Biden with 270 or more.

I did get more sleep, feeling it was close, and that Biden had more pathways than Trump did.

But it's still not sealed yet.

The two counts I'm watching remain the same as last night -

MSNBC 253 Biden 214 Trump 

AP  264 Biden 214 Trump

The difference between the two counts is Arizona.  More vote came in last night, but Biden maintained his lead.  Since it's mail-in, in a county that is slightly Democratic, I am optimistic.  

The same holds true in Nevada.  The block missing is mail-in/absentees from a heavily Democratic county, Clark County (Las Vegas).

The same holds true in Georgia and Pennsylvania.  The vote is still being counted, and Biden continues to close the gap.  Biden is now just 18,000 votes behind Trump in Georgia.  I remain a little skeptical, as I know who controls the voting process in Georgia, but we'll see.

I can't tell about North Carolina and Alaska.  North Carolina hasn't really changed since election night, and I'm sure what their problem is, and what is expected to come in.  Alaska is just a mystery. Half their vote is in and Trump leads 62% to 33%.  What's left to come in, and is there like a super-liberal part of the state I've never heard of before?

Currently, as of writing this around 7:30 AM, Biden leads Trump by 3,486,642 votes.  That's a larger popular vote lead than Hillary's.  Biden also has not just the plurality of votes but also the MAJORITY (50.5%).  ALSO, he has the largest number of votes of any Presidential candidate in history.  And there are still millions more to be counted, mostly in Biden territory. In any other nation on Earth, this would already be a done deal.  Thank you, slave-holding states, for the archaic Electoral College.

2:18 PM

Back home from work.

Some election chatter but I just closed my door.   I figured if Biden got 270 or more, I could have a Kick-Ass Mime Party.  

One of the biggest problems in discussing politics is not just them but also me.  I tend to get aggravated and emotional, and there's too much chance of me losing my cool.  I don't want to be that way, but I'm smart enough to recognize I am that way.

I can't really tell that much has happened.  A little bit of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania vote has come in, but not enough to be called.  

Georgia is getting incredibly tight.  Biden now only behind by 13,220 votes!  I would live it if I could be living in a blue state.  I don't know how much vote is left.

My sister in Michigan, who has been able to watch more closely than I have, says it maybe tomorrow or even Saturday before we know.  Oy!  More time for Captain Bone Spur's craziness!

4:25 PM

Feeling a little queasy.  No decision yet - not sure when it's coming.

I can't keep staring at the sun.  I have to break away from this.

I will update when I can.

5:47 PM

Biden now behind Trump in Georgia by 9,525 votes.  I don't know how many remain to be counted.

No other significant movement.  Oy.

I did post a message to a friendly FaceBook group about what I think Biden should do.

I have an important suggestion. The second that a major network projects Biden with 270 or more electoral votes, Biden needs to move like he is the nominee. He should be called President-Elect and he should immediately announce his transition team. This is the strategy the Bush Jr. team used in 2000. It's time for Democrats to play hardball and be assertive.

6:41 PM
See how by copying something my margins have moved.
We are not watching MSNBC much because we have had our fill of Steve Kornacki.
9:47 PM
Getting closer.  Oh, so closer.
Georgia is within 1,902 with mostly Democratic counties out.
Arizona has tightened slightly, but Biden still leads by 46,287.  Kornacki is driving me crazy with this one.  Is Maricopa County which is in BLUE Republican or Democratic?  He can't seem to make up his mind.
Biden has rapidly closed on Trump in Pennsylvania going from several hundred thousand votes, down to 41,962, with A LOT of Democratic votes yet to be included.
Nevada must of quit and gone to bed or the casinos or whatever and won't report again until tomorrow.
I've heard that North Carolina might not report until November 12th.
There was some thought that Biden would speak tonight, but as of now, they've rescheduled for tomorrow.
Oy, my heart!

Election Continues Afternoon November 4th: Sort of a Live Blog 4

 12:03 PM

Well, here I am.

I took a shower.  I would love to read or take a project or binge a fun show, but I cannot stop thinking about this.  I can't look up until I know we're ok.

12:08 PM

Still lost in why someone would vote for Trump.  Many of the people around here say it's abortion, but that's just an excuse. It's not even any political ideology - socialism, capitalism, whatever.  It's tribalism, pure, and simple.  They see they're losing their grip and they're doing everything they can to stay in control. And they are manipulating our system in order to preserve it - that's why the extreme emphasis on the Supreme Court.

And yes, there's a religious element to it, but ultimately, it's no form of Christianity I recognize. It's just another badge the tribe wears.

12:34 PM

At some point, when I was busy not looking, MSNBC courageously projected Hawaii for Biden.

Biden 227 Trump 213

1:30 PM

I may leave for a little while and consume lunch.

Nothing much to report other than Biden widening his lead in Michigan, and his national vote lead - already has received more votes than Clinton or Obama did.  He may have received the most of all time.  I'll have to check.

2:18 PM

Nice homemade meal.  Now on to see where things are.

AP has projected Wisconsin to Biden.

MSNBC has forgotten they have an electoral map.

So AP now 248 Biden 214 Trump

Ok, now MSNBC joins the Wisconsin parade.

237 Biden 213 Trump

MSNBC is still holding out on calling Arizona.

3:09 PM

I guess the Trumpers are out in Philadephia, maybe to try and stop the count.  Is this a great country or what?

Maine giving one electoral vote for Trump

MSNBC 237 Biden 214 Trump

4:25 PM

Heard Biden. Very good, very Presidential, wanting to work with Republicans.

That's a nice thought.  I'm very skeptical.  But that's a nice thought.

I'm not really very Kumbaya right now.  Millions of my fellow Americans voted for a racist fascist, a Covid Superspreader,  a man wanted them to drink bleach, who delighted in separating families and keeping kids in cages, a man who violates his oath of office on a daily basis.

Hard to reconcile that in my head right now.

4:30 PM

MICHIGAN HAS BEEN PROJECTED FOR BIDEN!

MSNBC 253 Biden 214 Trump

Another Blue Brick in the Wall!

Now it's AP that's hesitating.

5:39 PM 

Biden has now received over 3,000,000 more votes than Trump.  That exceeds Hillary's margin.

AP hasn't given Biden Michigan, MSNBC hasn't given Biden Arizona.  Consolidate the team, man!

I'm tired.  Sometimes.  I still can't let this go.  I'm planning on working at least a few hours tomorrow, so that could be interesting.

6:00 PM

AP just added Michigan to the Biden column.

AP 264 Biden 214 Trump

He just needs Nevada and it's a done deal.

On MSNBC, I just listened to a guy who is their most experienced Nevada political reporter. He says the ballots that are out are mail-in ballots in Clark County (Las Vegas), a county that is heavily Democratic. If Arizona and Michigan hold, which I believe they will, that will get Biden to 270. Everything after that is gravy.

Nevada will not report that vote until tomorrow.

Sigh.

I'll start another open blog, but that one could run awhile, as it will take Pennsylvania a dew says to finish counting.

Hang in there, people!

Election Morning November 4th : Sort of Live Blog 3

 7:01 AM

I admit it.  I passed out.  At least for an hour or two.

Not much new.

MSNBC still has Biden 224 Trump 213

HuffPost has Biden 238  Trump 213

I'm not sure of the difference, other HuffPost has called Arizona for Biden and MSNBC has not.

Nothing is too shocking, but also the margin that I prayed Biden would get is not there.  I had hoped he'd get more surprise states, in addition to Arizona and Nebraska District 2, but alas, that has not yet transpired.

Donald Trump has declared victory and is openly lusting for the Supreme Court to intervene.

Yes, this is very different from what I projected in my Last Speculatron.  Am I ashamed I missed?  No, I always strive to put the best scenario forward.  The emphasis is always on SPECULATION rather than PREDICTION.  I prayed I was right but I was not.

It does look like Warnock will finish first in the runoff, with current Senator Loeffler second.  Interestingly, Democrats combined have 50.8% of the vote and Republicans have 48.6.  Most of the vote yet to come in is from Democratic strongholds.  Ossoff is close to a runoff - he's at 46.9% and David PeeYou, uh, Pureedew, uh Perdue is at 50.8%.  It won't take much to frag him below 50.

(In Georgia, any race where no candidate receives 50% plus of the vote results in a runoff.  It's not the worst idea, but it is a hangover from Jim Crow.

Senate Dem 46 GOP 47

7:25 AM

Thanks, MSNBC, for finally telling me that Biden won Hawaii.

I've pulled up a summary from AP, and this is apparently where HuffPost is getting their information.  They also have it 238 to 213 in favor of Biden.

Biden has pulled into the lead in Wisconsin.  Hopefully, that will stick.

Biden is closing the gap in Michigan.  Oh, my God, do we need that one!

Someone on MSNBC is blaming liberals for spending too much money on Senates races they could not win.  Yeah?  And the horse you rode in on, motherducker!  Everyone deserves a choice.  Too many regions of this country have had no choice for too long.  You have to keep coming at them AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN.

To top it off, my Song of the Day feature is not working.  YouTube is not transferring videos to FaceBook.  I don't know whether it's personal or temporary or what.  

By the by, this whole thing is pretty much WYSIWYG.  I'm not checking grammar or nothing.

8:21

Biden is decisively ahead in the popular vote, by about 2.3 million votes, with much that is left that will favor him.  It's very like that Biden will not only win the popular vote, but also win the majority of the vote (50% plus). Too bad, thanx and a hat's tip to slavery-favoring impositions on our Constitution, that doesn't mean as much as it should.

What could that mean if Trump won?  It would mean the THIRD time the popular vote winner did not win, and the first time a 50+ candidate did not win. Let's pray that this is not the case.

9:04 AM

I haven't gone away.  Just bereft of news.  Trying to decide if my stomach can take breakfast.

No, I'm not going into work today.  That would be a very dangerous thing for me to do.

I just saw a list of states that MSNBC has given Biden, and it doesn't include Hawaii.  WTH?

9:22 AM

I now see where Biden has pulled ahead in Michigan!

9:33 AM

After four years of the worst Presidency in American History, Pierce County still voted 87% for Trump. Same as 2016. So, it wasn't just hatred of the dreaded Hillary. There is something even worse going on. No progress made at all, I am sad and frightened.

This is where I live. I live in political Hell.

9:49 AM

Thanks to my friend, Benita Collins, I was able to end around and post my Song of the Day! If you are a FaceBook friend, please enjoy Here Comes Santa Claus!

10:18 AM

I am at my desktop at home, with multiple windows up. I have MSNBC on mute. I can't take the Kornacki chatter, but I don't know where else to go. I also have the AP interactive map up - that's more statistically informative.

I am going to admit it - I am losing my mind. I can't look, and I can't not look. (yeah, that's a double negative - SUCK IT, GRAMMARLY!

11.:53 AM

I really don't see much changed. Pennsylvania may have a press conference while I was inattentive, so I'm not sure if they did or what they said.

I'll continue this with a new blog post.

Election Night November 4th! Sort of Live Blog 2

12:00 AM

Georgia still has a lot of important vote left.  Could it make a difference?  Probably not.  Damn.  Steve Kornacki and that damn same day vote.

Idaho Trump

Biden 192 Trump 136

Virginia Biden

Biden 205 Trump 136

Still no flips. All the states projected are the same as 2016.

Nebraska District 2 Biden leading

I am sick of rearing how the same day vote is Republican.

Senate GOP 45 Dem 44 we really, really need the Senate

12:23 AM

HuffPost has Biden at 223 and I don't know why. Also Trump at 145.  

I think they are giving Minnesota and Hawaii to Biden, and Iowa and Montana to Trump.  Makes sense, but not in my official channel of choice.  Although, I've about had it with Steve "Same Day" Kornacki.

12:40 AM

Florida Trump Damn

Biden 205 Trump 165

Cuban Americans have traded one dictator for another.

12:42 AM

Biden speaks.  Mike not good.

Ok they got it better.

He is optimistic and gracious.  Please, I pray, he is our next President.

I guess the next exciting thing will be Alaska closing.

Iowa Trump

Biden 205 Trump 171

Joni Ernst coming back.  Super Blech.

Senate GOP 46 Dem 44

1:00 AM

Alaska closes!  Oh...too early to call.

1:09 AM

Texas Trump

Biden 205 Trump 209

As terrible as this is, nothing has really changed.  If Biden can win Arizona and claim the Great Lakes, he'll be the next President.

Montana Trump

Biden 205 Trump 212

Rhode Island Biden

Biden 209 Trump 212

1:27 AM

I think the Orange Menace may speak soon.  I may try to take a nap.

Wait.  Calling Nebraska District 2 for Biden?

Biden 210 Trump 213 - Maine District?

That's a flip!

1:37 AM

Minnesota Biden

Biden 220 Trump 213

Yeah.  It's hard to take a nap.

Senate Dem 46 GOP 46

2:24 AM 

Ok.  I can't stand to look at him.  I'm going to turn off coverage and try to get some sleep.

The only thing interesting is watching Biden get closer in Georgia.  I'm not sure he can catch Trump, but it has been a bright spot.

No electoral vote change.  Be back.

Election Night November 3rd! Sort of Live Blog 1

6:10 PM

Ready for Election night!  

I will be posting into this blog post as the night progresses.

This post may get more joyous or despairing, depending on how the results go.

Starting with TYT, the progressive network that reluctantly predicted that Trump would win.

This year?  Not predicting a Trump victory.  Not predicting a close election.  Predicting a Biden BLOW OUT!!!

6:21 PM

Switched to MSNBC.  My God!  They love exit polls!  Which may or may not mean anything.

7% of Nevada voters think the economy is excellent.  Yeah, I do hear the rich are getting richer.  So, congratulations, ye mighty handful. 69% think wearing masks is a public safety responsibility.

Ok, actually, this is from the crawl at the bottom of the screen.  I swear, they've run about 200 commercials in a row.

7:00 PM

Indiana for Trump.  Others too close early to call.

Trump 11 Biden 0

7:24 PM

The tension is too much, so we're watching Who Wants to be A Millionaire for a little while.

7:37 PM

Vermont goes to Biden.

Trump 11 Biden 3

So many states way too close.  Florida is scary.  Biden's leading, but the Panhandle yet to come in.

I don't understand anyone who would have voted for Trump.  I know I'm surrounded by Trump voters, but I still can't see how they reach that conclusion.

7:52 PM

I see that HuffPost is reporting different electoral numbers than MSNBC, but I can't tell which states they are - Biden 16 Trump 13.

7:58 PM

Kentucky called for Trump.  Yuck.

Trump 19 Biden 3

8:01

Slew of states!  

Biden 44 Trump 26

I wish I could tell you all the states.  I know they include Massachusetts and Maryland.  Trump gets Oklahoma.

Still have little idea on the Senate.

Nobody's talking about the house.

Florida is a mess, as usual.

8:12

Tennesse for Trump.

Biden 44 Trump 37

Texas looks more promising than Florida.  But who knows?

McConnell wins.  Turtle Man comes back.  Blech.  Hopefully, as minority leader.

To update, Biden wins New Jersey and Delaware.  Those are the states I missed earlier.

8:23 PM

West Virginia Trump Connecticut Biden

Biden 51 Trump 42

Some states are interesting but still too early.

My heart is pounding.

8:51 PM

Arkansas Trump

Biden 51 Trump 48

Rural Georgia for Trump - we'll see about the Metro.

We took a chocolate break. Georgia Democratic Senate candidate Warnock in runoff position.

9:00 PM

Poll closings

New York Biden

Biden 80 Trump 48

Texan Jon Cornyn coming back to Senate.  Blech. Another Republican weasel.

9:09

South Dakota Trump

Biden 80 Trump 51

Coronavirus is raging in South Dakota.  Some lessons are hard to learn.

Nobody has gained ground yet.

9:18 PM North Dakota Trump

Colorado Biden 

Biden 89 Trump 54

Glad to see that one.  No flips yet.

9:28 PM

Alabama Trump

Biden 89 Trump 63

Colorado Senate seat flips to Democrats!

Dem 40 Rep 37 Senate

In contact with my two older sons.  They are frustrated and worried.  It's frustrating.  I'm worried too.  But no major Presidential state flips have yet occurred.

South Carolina Trump 

Biden 89 Trump 72

I'm sick of hearing about the difference between early voting and same day voting.  Blasted Trump super spreaders.

10:18 PM

New Mexico Biden

Biden 94 Trump 80 - didn't catch how Trump got to 80 

Still no flips.

Louisiana Trump

Biden 94 Trump 86?

There predicting the House will remain in Democratic control.  No duh.  

New Hampshire Biden

Biden 98 Trump 86

Still no flips.

The Doug Jones loss in Alabama is predictable but crushing.  

Utah Trump.  Thanks, Utah, I guess you don't value Romney after all.

Biden 98 Trump 92 

10:40 PM

Missouri Trump

Biden 98 Trump 102

Still no flips.

Illinois Biden

Biden 118 Trump 102

Nebraska Trump even the split district?

Biden 118 Trump 105 now 114?  Don't know what happened - trying to track too many things at once

Senate GOP 42 Dem 41

Mississippi Wyoming Trump

Biden 118 Trump 114

Graham going back.  I think I just threw up in my mouth.

11:00 PM

California Oregon Washington Biden

Biden 192 Trump 114

HuffPost has Biden at 209 and Trump 112.  I don't know what the differences are.

It looks like the big three - Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania will not have results for one to five days.  Technically, I should go to bed.  It wouldn't matter.  I'm not getting any sleep.  No way can I rest knowing that Trump could remain in office.

I wish they would at least call Arizona.  A flip for the Dems might ease my mind.

11;30 PM

Biden has pulled ahead in the popular vote.

11:48 PM

So this won't run on forever, I may end this post at midnight, but start a new one for November 4th.

I'm not despairing yet, but i am deeply frustrated and worried.

11:58 PM

Ohio Trump Damn

Biden 192 Trump 132

Damn

  

Last Speculatron of the 2020 Election: Saturday Political Soap Box 258

The above is a sample map.  It's nothing to do with my projection, but it shows the delusion level that can be found in the carefully crafted Facebook Trumplandia.

This is my final speculation for the 2020 election.

State and Local Races

Yes, Democrats will gain in State legislatures and Governorships.  The Governor gains will be modest, perhaps just one or two, but the legislative bodies' shifts should be more impressive.  I think that Democrat will increase almost everywhere and gain legislative control in two to four additional states.

House of Representatives

Since the Democrats made such significant gains in 2018, it will be hard for them to make another dramatic increase.  Nevertheless, I see the Democratic majority increasing slightly.  

Current 116th Congress

Democrats 232 Republicans 197 Open 6

Projected 117th Congress

Democrats 242 Republicans 193

An estimated gain of 10.  More importantly, the AOC-led Progressive Caucus (the Squad) will increase in size.  This will help them have a larger influence over legislation.  They're going to get harder and harder for Nancy Pelosi to ignore.

United States Senate

The Democrats will regain control of the Senate.  Yes, they will.

The composition of the current Senate includes two independents that caucus with the Democrats, as will the projected numbers. 

Current Senate

Democrats 47 Republicans 53

Projected Senate 

Democrats 54 Republicans 46

Yes, to get to this, I have a lot of things breaking the Democrat's way.  But I really feel that's where we're going.  I'm even optimistic that Georgia will gain one, possibly two, Democratic Senators. 

Special note to my fellow Georgians:  if there are runoffs in one or both of our Senate races, YOU HAVE TO SHOW BACK UP AND VOTE AGAIN.  This is vital to the future of Georgia AND the country.

The Presidency of the United States of America

This is not my final map.  Technology skills failed me in downloading my own map,  but it's fairly close.

Biden 413 Trump 125

My version has North Carolina and one district in Nebraska going blue and Indiana going red.  Those are the differences.

Biden will exceed Trump's vote total by 7 to 9 million.  His vote percentage will exceed Trump by 7.3 to 7.8%.

Is this optimistic?  Oh, I'm sure it is.

Is this as delusional as the Trump version at the top of this blog?  No.  This is based on real polling trends and my own judgment that the trend lines all favor Biden.  There has always been more of us than them, and I think we're finally showing up in significant numbers.  Trump has worn out his welcome.

Notes of caution:  Republican voter suppression efforts are massive and often supported by the Republican-stacked courts.  And there is also the possibility of hackers breaking into election systems.

These concerns are much more important in a close election.

This will not be a close election.

Trump will squaller and complain, but in the end, I feel he will exit early, like the coward he is.  He will resign around Thanksgiving, like gifting America an extra turkey,

He will leave under the condition that President Mike Pence gives him a blanket pardon.  This will not cover state crimes, so there is an excellent chance he will move to a country that won't accede to extraditing him.  Nevertheless, he will buy out or control the network OAN (One America News Network) and will continue to incite hatred and violence as long as he is able.

What happens beyond that?  I'll leave that to another speculatron.

Please note that in past speculatrons, I have been reasonably accurate, but I do tend to exaggerate Democratic Party results.  That being said, yes, this will either be a Blue Wave or a Blue Tsunami.

Buckle up, Trumpeteers.  It's going to be a bumpy ride.

  

The Worst COVID-19 Responses

 What are the worst COVID-19 responses you've heard?

I'm not talking about politicians.  I'm talking about everyday people you may have heard or read about.

Here's some of mine - 

"Well, we're all going to get it."

Really?  We just surrender?  That's the answer?

No.  There are countries that have controlled this SIGNIFICANTLY better than us.  We don't have to surrender to anything.

It's just an excuse to not do anything and/or justify Trump's administration's lack of response.

"Yes, I know our county numbers just jumped up quite a bit.  But that's from the prison."

Really?  So, some lives matter more than others? Being from prisoners (and guards) makes them less worthy of consideration?  How Christian of you.

Not from a private citizen, but from a Judge in Wisconsin, when asked to rule on COVID restrictions, dismissed them by saying, "Those are coming from the meat-packing plant, not from our regular people."

Another variation:

"I mean, a lot of these are coming from the elderly, who are sick and vulnerable anyways."

What are we, like some Inuit cultures, gonna set aside declining Grandma on an iceberg and just let her float away?

All life is valuable.  Unnecessarily cutting anybody short, with callous disregard, is WRONG.

This is not exclusively a virus of the elderly.  Not only the elderly suffer and/or die.  By now, we should all know cases that have upended or even ended the lives of otherwise healthy people.

All lives matter.  I can't even believe I have to hear this crap.

"I don't like the way I look in a mask."

Well, too bad, so sad.  I don't even know what to say about this one.  Choosing vanity over others' well-being is beyond the pale (or veil - you know, like a mask).

"Wearing a mask is an infringement of my liberties."

Methinks you don't know what liberty means.  How the word liberty came to mean my right to be a selfish prick exceeds my caring about and responsibility to others, I have no idea.

Should there be mask mandates?  Yes.  Should it have to take a mandate to make people be responsible and take care of each other?  I would hope not.  But that doesn't appear to be the case.

"We can't stay locked down forever."

You know what?  I can't speak to other places, but here where I live, WE NEVER REALLY SHUT DOWN!  Yeah, we pretended to make a stab at it for a couple of weeks, but it was feeble and quickly cut off.  Kemp made sure Georgia was last in and first out, and Georgia numbers show the damage that did and continues to do.

The only way to get out of danger is to COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN FOR FOUR TO SIX WEEKS. If your area hasn't done that, then talk to the hand, man. 

And then after you've gone through that shutdown, you can resume activities, AS LONG AS YOU wear masks and socially distance, test, and contact trace. If you don't do that, you're either going to have to shut down again and again, or you're going to have to watch a lot of people suffer and die.

"I think the Trump administration has done the best job that they can."

If you believe that, then you are straight-trippin', boo.  You need to get out of your Fox News panties and see the world as a whole.

4% of the population with 20% of the world's cases and deaths is NOT A GOOD JOB!

Those are a few I've heard.  What are some of yours?

C'mon!  Please!  Let's make this interactive!

Don't make me feel like I'm all alone out here.