Given the alternative, this is great news. North Korea and South Korea have met, and have made substantial progress towards officially ending their war, and the potential denuclearization of the area.
Will it happen? I don't know. There have been diplomatic setbacks before. But nothing has been as public or as on the line as what has happened this week. So there is a reason for cautious optimism.
How did this happen? How were we able to move to this point?
Was it the belligerent, racist, and semi-unintelligible ramblings of Trump? Does might really make right? Is blathering the world to the brink of nuclear armageddon a great role model for moving the world forward?
Was it the quiet, effective diplomatic diplomacy of South Korean President, Moon Jae-In? Carter-like in quiet persistence, does openness and dialogue win the race?
Was it the role China played? They surely don't want a big conflict on their doorstep. China is now the defacto economic leader in the world. No, at this point their economy is not as strong as the United States, but it is growing by leaps and bounds every year. And as the US withdraws from the world, China will continue to rush in to take our place.
Was it the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un? Did he have an epiphanic revelation that resulted in a cold, hard decision that made him see reconciliation with South Korea, in part or in full, as the most rational course of action? Was it a recent cave-in at a nuclear site that made him realize his nuclear program was not viable? Hard to say. It's true that Kim Jong Un is a vicious dictator, as were his predecessors, but that does mean he is completely irrational.
Was it the economic sanctions that have been imposed on North Korean, in varying degrees over the decades, going all the way back to Truman and the war that caused their split?
The answer?
I don't know.
World history and international events are not always explainable by one event or answer. People still argue what the true reasons were we fell into the madness of WWI. Scholars still debate what could have been done to avoid the rise of Hitler. Nothing is simple. Everything in world conflict, and preventing it, is like 3D chess from Star Trek,
Military might and belligerence can sometimes lead to temporary solutions. Sometimes, for short periods, it can look like it is ascendant. Hitler can control most of Europe - for a few years. We can take over Iraq and chase out a dictator - but it can't control Iraq forever, or prevent the rise of other destabilizing forces. Iraq begat ISIS. And on and on it goes.
Diplomacy and negotiation are also tricky. It certainly got a bad name with Chamberlain in trying to negotiate an end to Hitler's land grabs. But in the long run, if done right, these efforts can lead to a more stable and lasting peace. Carter's efforts in creating peace between Egypt and Israel is the one part of the Middle East puzzle that has consistently held true.
I am concerned about President Trump's visit to the North Korean leader, and what it may do to what is going on. He is ill-prepared for it, and he is now surrounded by hawkish military advisers. His belligerence could jeopardize all the forward progress. I hope not. Call me naive, but I am hoping that he leaves without having slowed progress towards peace, even if he leaves irrationally bragging about how he is the one responsible for it all.
That won't be a good thing. It will confirm to him that he can behave very badly in world affairs. But that will be another problem for another day.
Right now, I can sleep slightly better knowing that there is, at long last, the promise of better relations between the two Koreas.
Only time will tell how real it is.
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