August Obligatory Political Speculatron Saturday Political Soapbox 32

Well, it's time to take a look at the political state of things and  polish the crystal ball and come up with some unwarranted speculation as to what may happen next.

First, let me confess to something major that I got wrong from past speculation.  I felt that if Mitt Romney were the Republican nominee, that some form of third party would emerge, led by the Tea Party and the far, far, far right.  I further thought that although I did not believe Sarah Palin would be the Republican nominee, I thought that she might lead an independent third party effort.  It turns out that she will not run at all, and is pretty much a non-factor.

Why did this happen, no emergence of a third party? First, I underestimated the blind, dominating hatred the far right has for President Obama.  He's run this country to the right of Eisenhower and Nixon, and in many ways has not changed all that many policies from Bush.  But none of that is good enough.  He is not of us, he is an OTHER, not a true American at all.  So Fox and Rushy and the Becskster and others can steer people to further and further extremes.  If President Obama shifts right to accommodate them, instead of embracing that change, they just flee farther to the right than has been seen in this country in decades.

Second, all the big money is doubling down on Mitt Romney.  The wealthy billionaire crackpots are not following the path of Ross Perot this year.  They are placing huge, democracy-choking dollars on Mitt Romney.  Why?  Many of them are social conservatives who mistrust Romney,  Some were openly fighting Romney's nomination earlier.  Why have they fallen in line?  Pocketbook, plain and simple.  They smell that the historically low tax rates they pay now can be driven even lower.  They think they can run roughshod over the market and the environment if they can just get even more government regulations and oversight eliminated.  They will accelerate our striding gallop towards feudalism that is already occurring in this country.  See if you can stomach this - SIR Donald Trump.  Under Romney's America, he might as well be.

The unemployment rate did not tick down for July, although private sector job growth continues to improve. Knowing why this is the case, this logically should not hurt the President, but it might.  The real danger to the President, however, is going to be  the mammoth flood of Citizens United inspired advertising that is going to rain down upon this country very soon.  By the time it is over, they will try to convince you that Barack Hussein Obama is Willie Horton.  I kid you not.  Just wait and see.

My other predictions from last month still stand.  The President wins, by about the same margin as last time.  The House shows some Democratic gains but not enough to take control.  And the Senate stays narrowly in Democratic hands.

Anything is possible, however.  Without attaching names to it, I remember in 2006 to 2007 speculating that what might happen is that Democrats take control in 2008, the hole the Republicans created was too big to climb out of, and because of lack of progress, a confused populace hands the keys back to the Republicans once again, but the abyss is so vast after they retake things, that in 2016 we finally get a progressive majority in this country.

But, sigh, I am really, really hoping we could skip that second step.  Keep your fingers crossed.