Beyond Beliefs Saturday Political Soap Box 44

I have finished my series of political belief posts that began with my I Believe post from a couple months ago. It helped give my commentary a little more dignified shape as we headed into the election.  It helped prevent a lot of stories about the Mittbot and Paul "Ayn Rand" Ryan.

But now that series is done.

This will probably be my last official Saturday Political Soap Box before the election.  Next Saturday will be crammed full of activities for my son's wedding (Yay!), so I don't think I'll have much time to complete one.  I will have other scattered political commentary in other posts, but not an official Saturday Political Soap Box.

I want my Romney friends to know that our friendships will not be at risk no matter what happens with this election.  We have a democracy that is founded on a healthy debate of positions, and not everybody is going to take the same side of things.  And although they are weakening, we still should have a system of checks and balances that help prevent things from going too far off kilter.  I do concede, however, that the current elections and it's results could put an extreme stress on those precious checks and balances.

I;ll repeat my basic predictions again.  President Obama wins by a margin at what he beat McCain or greater, the Democrats gain in the house but not enough to take control, and the Senate holds to the Democrats with perhaps a seat or two gain.

So what is likely to happen depending on which side prevails?

If President Obama wins a deserved re-election, he should be leading with a slightly chastened Congress.  They should be willing to make more compromises than they have in the past.  Many Republicans will still be very virulent against working with the other party, but there may be enough who put country first and are willing to help put a conservative imprint on some compromise legislation.

On the other hand, my dream of a progressive agenda is not likely to occur.  As long as there are 40 plus Republicans willing to block the vast majority of legislation, then progress towards a brighter future will be greatly slowed.  This will mean that, although I do think some bills will pass, for the most part, progress towards a better economic future will be greatly slowed.  Even though this will be caused primarily by the Republicans, the American people may still blame the President, and restore greater majorities to the Republicans in 2014.  Odd, isn't it?  Speaking of rewarding bad behavior!

I am also worried about how some extremist elements will behave once they realize the President is re-elected and their tea party style dream of dominance is gone.  We may be in for some rocky times.  The best case scenario is just to hear from some quarters very virulent, nasty rhetoric.  Worst case scenarios is an increase of politically inspired violence in this country.  I hope not, but past experience indicates that right wing extremists do not quietly fade away.   They can be as dangerous as a wounded bear.

If Governor Romney should win the election...well, I'm not going to try to be the liberal version of Chuck Norris and tell you there will be a thousand years of darkness, but I'm afraid I can't polish this turd too much. Governor Romney does have some pragmatic instincts that might help reach common ground with some blue dog Democrats, but I don't know how much control he actually has.  Presuming a Romney presidency probably also means that the Republicans have full control of the House, and possibly the Senate.  As I've said before, the first thing that will go in a Republican Senate is the filibuster rule.  They're not wimpy Democrats.  They fully intend to take this country by the cojones and squeeze.

They will probably repeal Obamacare.  All the improvements in health care will be wiped away.  Some of my conservative friends are shouting "GOOD!!!"  Oh, my friends, you should be careful what you wish for.  All the benefits, cost controls and deficit savings will be wiped away.  I could spend the rest of this post and pages more defending Obamacare, and in the end, every one's position on this would be exactly the same as where we started.

They will select Supreme Court justices that will overturn Roe v. Wade.  Women's rights in general will gallop backwards into the 19th century.  But the will also diminish worker's rights, voting rights, and side most often with the wealthy and large corporations.  My conservative friends may feel like all this is wonderful.  What they can't argue is that it won't happen.  Because it will.

They will attempt to shred the social safety net, turn it private, give it back to unprepared states, or eliminate it altogether.  How far they will get is any one's guess, but they will attempt to do it.  Paul Ryan as vice-President guarantees it.

The increased defense spending, along with the deep tax cuts aimed at the wealthy, should leave the country more vulnerable.  I think war is more likely under Romney as we turn to a nastier, more in your face and less diplomatic foreign policy.

The backlash to this should be quite severe.  I would expect the Democrats to make substantial gains in 2014.  I think that once people realize what they've lost, and the engulfing size of the deficit (which will grow under Romney, of that I am 100% sure), they will switch sides again.  And I believe that would mean an excellent chance of a truly progressive president in 2016.

BOTH SIDES, and much of the American people, are ignoring the true time bomb in the room.  And that is climate change.  I fear for the future of the planet as both sides play the fiddle while the world burns.

So that is the outline of where I feel we might be headed, depending on who wins.  There are consequences to this election, and it will be hard to sing Kumbaya at the end.  But if we're going to survive as a country, we're going to have to find a way to cooperate.

Until after the President's victory,

T.M. Strait