Time for a quickie political speculatron, trying to divine the future direction of our electoral future.
Who will the Democrats run in 2016?
If Hilary Clinton runs, and her health is good, she is the Democratic nominee and the next President of the United States. She might have a challenger from the left. but it should not be enough to disrupt her. Elizabeth Warren is the most credible opponent, but she has disavowed any interest in running. The only advantage of this is that it might require Hilary to tack slightly more center-left in her approach. I personally am to the left of Hilary, but I do believe she would make an effective President, way much more so than anything the Republicans have to offer.
Who will the Republicans run in 2016?
The mainstream, or shall I say Wall Street Republicans, are going to be desperate to turn the Tea Party wave aside, and nominate somebody a bit more salable to those not the right wing bubble. Not that their candidates aren't highly conservative - they're just a little more corporatist and a tad less loony. Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey was the front-runner in this group, but now, with all his scandals, it may be a bridge too far. I suppose he could survive his current problems. Stranger things have happened in American politics. There is a large segment of the American populace that actually do like bullies, although Christies may have gone too far. Governor Scott Walker is an underdog possibility in this area - he tries to present himself as less extreme. His state's economy is doing poorly, and he crushed the public unions in a state that had been a birthplace of unions, but again, he has that bullying thing that some Republicans find attractive, but without Christie's 'weight', so you never know. I think the new front-runner, and most likely nominee, is Jeb Bush.. Yes, as crazy as it may sound, I think the Republicans may "go there" once again. He has the best chance to bridge the gap between the different Republican interest groups.
There will emerge a candidate representing the Tea Party extremists in the Republican party. This group is too crazy for me to predict solidly. I believe it will come down to "Ayn" Rand Paul, Senator from Kentucky and Ted Cruz, Senator from TexarCanada. I think Cruz will emerge as their representative, just because he has slightly more appeal to the Christian right. This area of the electorate is the most volatile, though, and it is hard to predict what will most strike their fancy.
Oh. I forgot about Marco Rubio, Senator from Florida. But who hasn't done that? Let me grab this glass of water from across the room and think if I have anything to say about him........oy, that was quite an awkward reach.....okay......I got nothing.
What will happen in the midterms?
Not much. Pretty much everything has already been bought and paid for. I expect very modest gains for the Democrats in the House, and pray that they hold onto the Senate. Bottom line, the most ineffective, do nothing Congress in the history of our diminishing republic, just keeps rolling forward.
All of this, of course, is subject to constant change, and furious denials that I ever made these predictions.
For those brave few who have read this far, and are quasi political junkies like myself, what speculations do you have to share? What is the shape of the coming elections?
Crickets chirp.
No comments:
Post a Comment