I am still obsessed with the reaction I see to the mild reforms that will be put in place by the Affordable Care Act. There is a great partisan divide in America, one that breaches little compromise, and it appears to be getting worse instead of better. Most of what I have to say is in my blog entry The Infinite Sadness of the Health Care Debate, so I will just repost that today as a supplement to this soap box. Suffice to say, so far I have been unable to discern any coherent objections by my conservative friends, and so find it hard to even debate with them.
I believe with all my heart that in ten years that anybody bad-mouthing Obamacare will not even be able to be elected dog catcher. There too many provisions of this that will prove too popular to remove. And I have faith that it will prove to be a gateway to true universal health care. Some states will exceed the requirements and cover more people, offer a public option for example. Other states will see that and will accelerate the move to it.
I now feel like the window to do anything constructive about global warming and associated climate change is now pretty mush past. I don't see the political will to do anything about it. So we might just start having to plan our lives around dealing with horrible consequences of our inaction. Although I am generally a long term optimist, this awful shadow may make all our other efforts mute.
In a logical and rational world, President Obama would be a shoo in for re-election. But this is a post Citizens United world, and the super wealthy and corporations intend to try to bury the system in an unlimited flow of cash. And Americans are much more susceptible to negative advertising than you will ever get them to admit. Still, I would bet on an Obama victory. The economy should improve ever so slightly, and Romney is a particularly bad candidate.
Again, rationally, the Democrats should have at least modest gains in the House. Maybe not enough to take control, but hopefully enough to punish some of the more extreme wackos of the Tea Party. This might improve the atmosphere for compromise.
I don't see the Senate doing much but changing by only a few seats, most likely on the Democratic side. I haven't done a seat by seat analysis, but generally tea party candidates fare more poorly in statewide races than in Congressional races.
The best case scenario is that President Obama wins re-election with a slightly more co-operative congress. For those of you who think this is my rose-colored liberal/progressive dream - you're wrong. It's just the best I can see coming now. That's still going to leave us in a precarious position to solve the problems we need to solve.
The worst case scenario is the Romney wins, the house stays tightly in the hands of the Tea Party extremists, the Republican gain enough in the Senate to take control and then get rid of the veto (they're not Democratic wussies - the Republicans won't put up with the very tactics that they themselves deployed). In that case, you can kiss the social safety net goodbye, come up with other retirement plans besides Social Security and Medicare, watch global warming spiral out of control, learn how to use the ER and charity for health care, gear up for war with Iran, and for women (particularly on reproductive issues and pay equality) to become second class citizens, and to slowly live under the one ism you didn't expect and nobody warned you about - feudalism.
Have a great day!
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